Donald Trump’s election as US president is already threatening international initiatives on climate change and taxation, as diplomats from the world’s richest nations struggle to maintain a shaky consensus on the eve of a G20 summit in Brazil.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统已经威胁到了气候变化和税收方面的国际倡议，世界上最富裕国家的外交官们正在巴西举行的二十国集团(G20)峰会前夕维持脆弱的共识。

Argentina and its President Javier Milei, a close ally of Trump, threatened to block a joint communique set to be endorsed by G20 leaders at the Rio de Janeiro meeting that begins on Monday, because of objections related to taxation of the super-rich and gender equality, people briefed on the negotiations told the Financial Times.

知情人士告诉英国《金融时报》，阿根廷及其总统哈维尔•米莱(Javier Milei)——特朗普的亲密盟友——威胁要阻止G20领导人在周一开始的里约热内卢会议上通过的一份联合公报，原因是反对有关对超级富豪征税和性别平等的内容。

Diplomats were racing to reach a final consensus on statements related to climate finance and geopolitical issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, the people said, as leaders began arriving in the Brazilian city.

知情人士表示，随着各国领导人陆续抵达巴西，外交官们正争分夺秒地就有关气候融资和俄乌战争等地缘政治问题的声明达成最终共识。

——本文2024年11月18日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Donald Trump victory threatens to throw G20 initiatives into disarray 

US President Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine to launch limited strikes into Russia using US-made long-range missiles, in a big policy shift before the end of his White House term in January, two people familiar with the decision said. 

两名知情人士表示，美国总统乔•拜登已授权乌克兰使用美国制造的远程导弹对俄罗斯发动有限打击，这是他1月份白宫任期结束前的一项重大政策转变。

The move by Biden comes in response to the deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, and after a barrage of new strikes by Moscow on Ukrainian cities at the weekend. 

拜登此举是对朝鲜部署数千军人支持俄罗斯对乌克兰作战的回应，也是在上周末莫斯科对乌克兰城市发动一系列新的打击之后。

Tuesday will mark the 1,000th day of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

周二将是莫斯科全面入侵乌克兰的第1000天。

——本文2024年11月18日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Biden allows Ukraine to strike Russia with US-made long-range missiles 

Even the smartest experts have a hard time predicting the future of technology. Consider the example of Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet who, in 1995, boldly forecast that the internet would experience a catastrophic collapse — or a “gigalapse” — the following year.

再聪明绝顶的专家也难以预测技术的未来前景。看看鲍勃•梅特卡夫(Bob Metcalfe)的例子，这位以太网发明者在1995年大胆预测，互联网将在来年遭遇灾难性的崩溃，或者说“千兆故障”(gigalapse)。

But, when he got it wrong, Metcalfe literally ate his own words. To chants of “Eat, baby, eat!” at a tech industry event, Metcalfe ripped up a copy of his future-gazing InfoWorld column, fed it into a blender, and consumed the resultant pulp.

不过，梅特卡夫在发现他错了以后，做到了真正收回他的话。在一个科技行业活动上，在一片“吃吧，宝，吃吧！”的叫喊声中，梅特卡夫撕碎了一本《InfoWorld》杂志上他撰写的凝望未来专栏文章，放进搅拌机，然后他把纸浆喝掉了。

Metcalfe’s unhappy experience — accepted with good grace and humility — is one of dozens of examples of erroneous predictions contained in the illuminating online resource that is the Pessimists Archive. Spanning the invention of the camera, electricity, aeroplanes, television and the computer, the archive records the many fanciful ways in which successive generations of technological experts have been dead wrong.

梅特卡夫这段不愉快的经历——他颇有风度且谦逊地认了错——是具有启发性的网络资源“悲观主义者档案”(Pessimists Archive)中包含的诸多错误预测案例之一。这份档案收录了一代又一代技术专家千奇百怪的错误预言，涵盖照相机、电、飞机、电视机和计算机等各种发明。

——本文2024年11月18日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Why it is too soon to call the hype on AI’s productivity promise

The US equity market has greeted the US election result with a celebratory run. I share the optimism. On almost every dimension, the policy mix is positive for US equities — deregulation, tax cuts, lower energy costs. What is not to like? It is also being implemented against a background of falling interest rates.

美国股市以一波欢庆的涨势回应了美国大选的结果。我也同样乐观。从几乎每个维度来看，政策组合对美国股市都是有利的——监管放松、减税、降低能源成本。有什么不好的呢？而且，这些政策还将在利率不断下降的背景下实施。

The only caveats to this positive outlook are the following. First, tariffs and immigration control are both inflationary and so the rate-cutting cycle will probably be shallower. The markets already revised up the level at which US rates will settle in this cycle from 3.4 per cent to 3.75 per cent in the run-up to the election.

但对于这种乐观的预期，还有些事情需要预先提醒：首先，关税和移民控制措施都会引发通胀，因此降息周期可能会变得更浅。在大选之前，市场对于美国在这一降息周期中最终利率水平的预期已经从之前的3.4%上调至3.75%。

Second, Donald Trump is evidently willing to take risks in his second term as president with deficit-financed spending in something of a rerun of Reaganomics. So the curve of bond yields from short to long-term maturities should steepen. This is, if anything, more of a medium-term concern.

第二，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)显然愿意在第二个总统任期内冒风险，扩张赤字以增加支出，这在某种程度上是里根经济学的重演。因此，从短期到长期的债券收益率曲线将会变得更陡峭。可以说，这更像是一件中期内令人担忧的事情。

——本文2024年11月18日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Donald Trump will amplify American exceptionalism and divergence from Europe