What would a second coming of Donald Trump mean for the US and the world? Optimists can point to what happened last time: his presidency, they might assert, was full of sound and fury. But it signified little. He ruled more conventionally than many feared. Moreover, in the end, he was beaten by Joe Biden and departed. He departed with bad grace, it is true. But what else would one expect? He departed, all the same. Why would it not be similar if he won a second term, as polls suggest is likely?

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)再次上台对美国和世界意味着什么？乐观主义者可能会参照上次的情况：他们可能会断言，他的上一个总统任期充满喧哗与骚动。但参照上次的情况没什么意义。他上次的执政算是传统的，比许多人担心的情况要好。而且，他最后败给乔•拜登(Joe Biden)，离开了白宫。的确，他走得很没有风度。但你还能指望他怎样呢？他总归是走了。为什么说如果他赢得第二个任期（民意调查显示这是可能的），情况会不一样？

Trump is an expert in empty promises. In 2016, a centrepiece of his campaign was the “wall” that Mexico would pay for. In the end, there was no wall, let alone any money from Mexico. This time he has promised to round up and deport as many as 11mn undocumented aliens. The operation needed to do this would be immensely costly and controversial. Indeed, how exactly would many millions be deported and to where?

特朗普是开空头支票的专家。2016年竞选时，特朗普的一个核心承诺是要让墨西哥出钱在美墨边境修建“隔离墙”。最后，墙没有修成，墨西哥更是没有出钱。这一次，他承诺围捕多达1100万未办理合法入境手续的外国人，将他们驱逐出境。这项行动将成本高昂且会引发争议。说真的，怎么可能将上千万人驱逐出境，又能把他们驱逐到哪里呢？

More ridiculous is Trump’s suggestion that by raising tariffs, he could eliminate the income tax. This is utter nonsense. According to a paper by Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld, even the revenue-maximising tariff of 50 per cent all round would deliver less than 40 per cent of the revenue from income tax. The net loss of tax revenue would gut the spending on which his relatively elderly voters depend.

更荒谬的是，特朗普提出，通过提高关税，他可以取消所得税。这完全是无稽之谈。根据金伯利•克劳辛(Kimberly Clausing)和莫里斯•奥布斯特费尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)的一篇论文，即使全面征收50%（这是能征得最多关税的税率水平）的关税，得到的关税收入也只相当于所得税收入的不到40%。税收收入的净损失将削弱他相对年长的选民所依赖的那部分财政支出。

——本文2024年10月31日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Trump is the man who would be king

The human race is suffering from success. Our own ingenuity, our capacity to keep inventing and innovating, means that almost all of us live not just geographically but more importantly technologically a million miles away from the “EEA”: the environment of evolutionary adaptedness.

人类正在因为自己的成功而受苦。人类自己的聪明才智，我们不断发明创造的能力，意味着我们几乎所有人的生活都不仅在地理上，而且更重要的是在技术上远离了“EEA”：进化适应性适配环境（environment of evolutionary adaptedness，EEA也是欧洲经济区的缩写）。

One reason why modern, wealthy societies struggle with rising obesity, say, is that the human body is built for hunter-gathering. Place us in an environment of abundant, tasty food and comfy chairs and we put on weight. Obesity, along with atherosclerosis, osteoporosis, certain cancers, type two diabetes and other conditions are sometimes dubbed “diseases of modernity”.

现代富裕社会之所以面临比如说日益严重的肥胖问题，一个原因就是人类这副身体是为采集狩猎的生活而打造的。把我们放在一个有丰富美味食物、还有舒服椅子的环境中，我们就会增重。肥胖、动脉粥样硬化、骨质疏松、某些类型的癌症、二型糖尿病和其他一些疾病有时被称为“现代病”。

Of course, being very far from the environment we evolved for is a fantastic deal for essentially all human beings. Being exceptionally morbid, I sat down and worked out when, in past centuries, I would have shuffled off the mortal coil, even before you factor in my chances of being involved in some kind of violent crime or drafted into a war. At any point before the discovery of penicillin in 1928 the answer is that at best “I would have died at seven”, and the bacterial infection in particular was relatively contained and not that painful at the time.

当然，远离适配我们进化适应性的环境对人类整体来说是一件好事。出于一种非常病态的心理，我坐下来开始计算，如果早出生几百年，甚至不考虑被卷入某种暴力犯罪或被征召上战场的可能性，我原本会在什么年纪离开尘世。在1928年发现青霉素之前的任何时候，答案都是最多“活到7岁就会挂”。青霉素的发明让尤其是细菌感染变得较为可控，痛苦程度也降低了。

——本文2024年10月31日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 The human race is suffering from success

Microsoft reported double-digit gains in quarterly revenue and profit driven by strong demand for cloud computing services, providing evidence that its bet on artificial intelligence and rapidly escalating spending on data centres is starting to pay off.

微软报告称，在云计算服务需求强劲的推动下，其季度收入和利润实现了两位数增长，这证明其对人工智能的押注和数据中心支出的迅速增长开始得到回报。

Revenue for its fiscal first quarter rose 16 per cent from a year ago to $65.6bn, beating analysts’ expectations for $64.5bn, according to a filing on Wednesday. Net income increased 11 per cent to $24.7bn in the three months through to the end of September, exceeding the average estimate of $23.1bn.

周三的一份文件显示，该公司第一财季营收同比增长16%，达到656亿美元，超出分析师645亿美元的预期。截至9月底的三个月里，净收入增长了11%，达到247亿美元，超过了231亿美元的平均估计。

“AI-driven transformation is changing work . . . across every role, function and business process,” said chief executive Satya Nadella. He said the company was “winning new customers as we help them apply our AI platforms”.

首席执行官萨蒂亚•纳德拉表示：“人工智能驱动的转型正在改变工作……在每个角色、职能和业务流程中。”他说，该公司“正在赢得新客户，我们在帮助他们应用我们的人工智能平台”。

——本文2024年10月31日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Microsoft says AI boom is driving cloud demand higher

Britain’s chancellor Rachel Reeves inherited a deeply troubled economy: slow growth, strained public services and high debt. After months of confidence-sapping speculation, at Wednesday’s Budget she delivered a budget that was dramatic in scale: around £40bn in higher taxes — the largest increase for a generation — £70bn in higher spending, and £30bn more in borrowing, per year. This marks a turning point for Britain, towards a significantly stronger role for the state in its economic model, with the tax-to-GDP ratio set to rise to a postwar high by the end of the decade. Much of the tax burden is set to fall on business. 

英国财政大臣蕾切尔•里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)接手的是一个深陷困境的经济：增长缓慢、公共服务紧张、债务高企。经过几个月打击信心的猜测之后，她在周三公布了一份规模巨大的预算案：每年增加税收约400亿英镑（一代人中增幅最大的一次）、增加支出700亿英镑、增加借贷300亿英镑。这标志着英国进入了一个转折点，政府在经济模式中将扮演更重要的角色，到本十年末，税收占国内生产总值(GDP)的比率将升至战后最高水平。大部分税收负担将落在企业身上。

Reeves’ package has begun the hard work of stabilising public services, raising capital investment and improving the fiscal rules. But, when so much of the heavy lifting she envisages falls to the state, the question is whether the reality of her growth strategy matches the rhetoric. 

里夫斯的一揽子计划开启了稳定公共服务、提高资本投资和改善财政规则的艰苦工作。但是，当她所设想的这么多繁重工作都落在政府身上时，问题就在于她的增长战略的现实是否与言论相符。

The main beneficiaries of the chancellor’s dramatic fiscal loosening are public services, particularly the broken health service and underfunded schools. Long hospital waiting lists, chronic illness and teacher shortages impose strains on the economy. The major tax change was to raise £25bn from higher employers’ national insurance contributions. The move raises the costs for business but there must be no illusion: working people will still suffer as higher business costs translate into weaker wage growth and less hiring.

财政大臣大幅放松财政政策的主要受益者是公共服务部门，尤其是残缺不全的医疗服务和资金不足的学校。漫长的医院候诊名单、慢性病和教师短缺给经济造成了压力。主要的税收变化，是通过提高雇主的国民保险缴款来筹集250亿英镑。此举提高了企业的成本，但绝不能抱有幻想：由于较高的企业成本转化为较弱的工资增长和较少的招聘，工薪阶层仍将遭受损失。

——本文2024年10月31日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Britain’s Labour Budget: bold ambition, uncertain prospects