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上期划线句答案
Unfortunately, the impact of the financial crisis and the pandemic was then to bring public debt back up, albeit not close to the heights of 1945.
不幸的是，金融危机和疫情的影响使公共债务再次上升，尽管还没有接近1945年的高点。
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本期内容
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双语阅读
Para.1
The local weather forecast helps you plan your day. But if you're checking if it's going to rain, for example, you won't usually see a "yes" or "no" in the forecast. Instead, most weather reports give precipitation as a percentage.
Para.2
So what does this "percent" mean? The percent chance of rain or snow is called the probability of precipitation(POP). This is the probability that there will be at least 0.01 inch (0.25 millimeters) of precipitation at a given location, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). For example, a Tuesday weather report of "30% rain" in Atlanta means there is a 30% chance it will rain at least 0.01 inch in Atlanta on Tuesday. It does not mean that it will rain 30% of the day, or that 30% of Atlanta will see rain. Nor does it indicate how heavy the rain will be. A brief afternoon thunderstorm could bring more total precipitation than all-day misty drizzle, for example.
Para.3
Now, the NWS uses an ensemble of 30 weather models to make forecasts, Jeglum said. These models are like "parallel universes" that start the same but evolve differently, Jeglum said. There may be precipitation in some models and not in others. In the example of a 30% POP, that would mean that there was precipitation — rain, snow or sleet — in three out of the 10 models (parallel universes). Today's physics-based models are basically equation calculators, Jeglum said. They make their calculations using information on the current temperature, moisture and wind speed.
Para.4
This data are collected through satellites, radar, ground stations and weather balloons. These balloons are released into the atmosphere twice every day to collect a snapshot of atmospheric conditions, according to the NWS. That information is fed into servers on the ground, where models use physics and calculus to forecast weather conditions.
Para.5
Whether it's right or wrong, that's for us to decide, Souza said. Meteorologists use a variety of models to make forecasts; there is no one standard around the world, he said. So they must use their own scientific reasoning to determine which model predictions are more accurate. Many times, the models are calibrated — using statistics and, sometimes, artificial intelligence — to ensure that their probability predictions are accurate and not biased by variations between the model's approximations and the actual atmosphere, Jeglum said.
本文节选自：Live Science（生活科学）
发布时间：2024.12.11
作者：NEWS
原文标题：What does a weather report of 30% chance of rain mean?
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写作句总结
原句：Meteorologists use a variety of models to make forecasts; there is no one standard around the world, he said.
结构：A use a variety of B to do C; there is no one standard around the world.
例句：Young entrepreneurs use a variety of strategies to navigate challenges; there is no one formula for acheiving goals.
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阅读理解题
What factors contribute to the accuracy of weather probability forecasts?
A. Public opinion on the effectiveness of weather forecasts
B. The use of artificial intelligence in weather models C. The consistency of precipitation patterns across different geographical regions
D. The expertise of meteorologists in interpreting diverse weather models
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全文概括
Weather forecasts use probability of precipitation (POP) to indicate the likelihood of at least a minimal amount of rain or snow at a specific location, not the duration or intensity of the precipitation. The National Weather Service employs an ensemble of weather models, essentially parallel simulations, to generate these forecasts. These models utilize data from various sources, including weather balloons and satellites, and are often calibrated statistically or with AI to improve accuracy. Ultimately, meteorologists synthesize information from multiple models to create their forecasts, using scientific judgment to assess the reliability of different predictions.
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打卡作业
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