The indictment of Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant on war crimes charges is a disaster for Israel. It is also a huge problem for the western alliance.

本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)和约阿夫•加兰特(Yoav Gallant)面对战争罪指控对以色列来说是一场灾难，对西方联盟也是一个巨大的问题。

Israel is getting full-throated bipartisan support in the US, as it attempts to fight off the International Criminal Court’s charges against its prime minister and former defence minister. But most governments in the EU, as well as Britain, Australia and Canada, are likely to respect the indictment. However reluctantly, they will have to arrest Netanyahu if he sets foot on their soil.

在反击国际刑事法院(ICC)对其总理和前国防部长提出的指控时，以色列得到美国两党的全力支持。但欧盟大多数成员国以及英国、澳大利亚和加拿大很可能会尊重起诉书。无论多么不情愿，如果内塔尼亚胡踏上他们的土地，他们将不得不逮捕他。

Even in normal times, this split between the US and its main allies would be very difficult. But these are far from normal times. Donald Trump, who will be president from January 20, has already pledged to take actions that are profoundly threatening to the interests of America’s friends.

即使在正常时期，美国与其主要盟友之间的这种分裂也会非常困难。但现在远非正常时期。将于1月20日就任美国总统的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)已誓言要采取将会严重危及美国盟友利益的行动。

——本文2024年11月26日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Israel will split the western alliance

At an event over the summer where I knew the vast majority of the attendees to be highly socially and politically progressive, a woman pulled me aside and told me she needed to talk to me about something. Slightly concerned, I asked what it was regarding. “Trump,” she said. Oh God, I thought, has she been offended by one of my columns? She then uttered six words that have been ringing in my ears ever since: “The thing is, I love him.”

今年夏天，我参加了一场活动，我知道活动上的绝大多数人都是社会和政治立场非常进步的人士，而就在这场活动上，有一位女士把我拉到一边，告诉我她有事情需要和我谈谈。我有点担心，就问她是关于什么的事情。“特朗普(Trump)。”她说。听到这话，我想，天哪，她是不是被我的某篇专栏冒犯了？然后她说了几个字，这几个字后来一直在我耳边回响：“是这样的，我爱他。”

This woman — who considers herself staunchly on the left of the political spectrum — went on to tell me what it was about Donald Trump that she found so compelling: his “punk” (her words) outsider status, his funniness, the fact he’s unafraid to say what he really feels, his anti-war, anti-establishment stances.

这位认为自己绝对位于政治光谱左侧的女士接着告诉我，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)如此吸引她的地方在于：他的“朋克”（punk，她的原话）局外人身份、他的幽默、他不害怕说出自己的真实感受、他反战和反建制的立场。

It might have been the most unexpected, but it was far from the only such conversation I’ve had with people on both sides of the Atlantic — and both sides of the aisle — as the election approached. And what all of them had in common was the change in the way that Trump was being discussed. To use a neologism that has already become a cliché: there had been, since 2020, a distinct vibe shift.

这场谈话可能是最出乎我意料的，但随着选举的临近，类似的谈话又发生了好几次，谈话的对象大西洋两岸都有，两个政治阵营都有。一个共同点是，他们谈论特朗普的方式发生了变化。用一个已经被用滥的新词来说：自2020年以来，出现了一种明显的氛围感(vibe)转变。

——本文2024年11月26日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 The Trump vibe shift was there for all to see

Donald Trump’s resounding victory has upset conventional economists almost as much as American liberals. The Republican candidate’s pledge to implement trade tariffs and other protectionist measures has provoked a spate of dire economic prognostications. But much of the current doom-mongery doesn’t consider mitigating factors — and risks undermining the credibility of globalisation’s defenders.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的大胜给传统经济学家带来的沮丧与给美国自由派人士带来的沮丧不相上下。这名共和党当选总统实施关税和其他保护主义措施的承诺已经引发一连串严峻的经济预测。但当前很大一部分“末世论”并没有考虑缓和因素——而且可能会削弱全球化捍卫者的可信度。

These are difficult times for economic experts. Politicians hardly seem to take their advice seriously any more. Economists continue to warn about the dangers of deglobalisation in the form of higher prices and less GDP growth but electorates are rolling their eyes. Trump’s victory amplifies this trend.

对于经济专家而言，现在是艰难时期。政客们似乎基本不再严肃对待他们的意见。经济学家们继续警告去全球化的危险——价格上涨和国内生产总值(GDP)增长放缓——但选民们满不在乎。特朗普的胜利放大了这一趋势。

Some economists estimate that “blanket” tariffs on all imported goods will add up to a big hit to the global economy, leaving American and European households worse off. For example, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that tariffs will add more than $2,600 in annual costs to the typical US household. The prestigious Wharton school at the University of Pennsylvania warns a trade war “could reduce GDP by as much as 5 per cent over the next two decades”. Not to be outdone, the IMF estimates US GDP will be 1.6 per cent lower by 2026 as a consequence of Trump-like policies.

一些经济学家估计，针对所有进口商品的“全面”关税将对全球经济造成巨大冲击，令美国和欧洲家庭境况变差。例如，彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)估计，关税将给普通美国家庭每年增加逾2600美元的成本。著名的宾夕法尼亚大学(University of Pennsylvania)沃顿商学院(Wharton School)警告称，贸易战“可能在未来20年内导致GDP降低多达5%”。国际货币基金组织(IMF)也不甘示弱地估计，特朗普这类政策将导致美国GDP到2026年减少1.6%。

——本文2024年11月26日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 The risks of being too gloomy on Trump tariff plans

Parents the world over know the dilemma. Social media networks are a pivot around which their teenage children’s lives revolve — where they hang out with friends, nurture relationships, share what they are doing and find out much about current events. Yet research has suggested a link between social media apps and anxiety, depression, and sleeping and eating disorders among young people. They can be a source of harmful material on body image, or of misogynistic content, or forums for bullying. Is the answer to ban their use by vulnerable minds?

全世界的父母都面临这个困境。社交媒体网络是他们十几岁孩子生活的中心，他们在那里与朋友聚会，培养关系，分享他们正在做的事情，以及了解许多时事。然而，研究表明社交媒体应用与年轻人的焦虑、抑郁、睡眠和饮食障碍之间存在联系。它们可能是关于身体形象的有害信息来源，或者制造厌女内容，或者是欺凌的论坛。禁止弱势群体使用它们就是解决之道吗？

Australia’s government thinks so. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is rushing through a ban on under-16s having accounts with platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, X, TikTok and Snapchat, in what it calls a world first. Tech companies would be obliged to take reasonable steps to ensure under-age children could not use their services — with penalties of up to A$50mn ($32.5mn) for “systemic” breaches — though children and parents would not be penalised. Albanese says the ban aims to protect mental health, likening it to curbs on underage drinking: worth doing even if some teens circumvent it.

澳大利亚政府认为如此。总理安东尼•阿尔巴尼斯(Prime Minister Anthony Albanese)正在急于通过一项禁令，禁止16岁以下儿童在Facebook、Instagram、X、TikTok和Snapchat等平台上开设账户，并称此举为全世界之先河。科技公司将被要求采取合理措施，确保未成年儿童无法使用其服务，对“系统性”违规行为的处罚最高可达5000万澳元（合3250万美元），但儿童和家长不会受到处罚。阿尔巴尼斯表示，该禁令旨在保护心理健康，将其类比于对未成年饮酒的限制：即使一些青少年绕过禁令，也值得实施。

More than a dozen other countries including Austria, Germany, Italy and South Korea are moving towards minimum age limits for social media, often 15, with varying degrees of enforcement. Norway is raising an existing threshold from 13 to 15. The UK government is reportedly weighing up backing a private members’ bill on the issue. About 10 US states have passed laws restricting children’s access to social platforms, though some are being challenged in court.

包括奥地利、德国、意大利和韩国在内的十多个国家正在逐步实行社交媒体最低年龄限制，通常为15岁，但执行程度各不相同。挪威正在将现有的门槛从13岁提高到15岁。据报道，英国政府正在权衡是否支持有关这一问题的私人议员法案。美国约有10个州通过了限制儿童访问社交平台的法律，但其中一些州正在法庭上受到质疑。

——本文2024年11月26日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Australia’s under-16 ban puts social media on notice