上期答案
This was a troubling discovery, because the institutions on which we depend for essentials such as public services, housing and finance – and from which we can’t hide our identities – may be selling our personal information to data brokers, who then pass it along to telemarketers.
这是一个令人不安的发现，因为我们依赖的公共服务、住房和金融等必需品的机构——我们无法在这些机构面前隐藏自己的身份——可能正在将我们的个人信息出售给数据经纪人，然后数据经纪人再将这些信息传递给电话推销员。
本期内容
早上好，读者朋友们，今天分享的文章选自《经济学人》。在全球经济复杂多变的背景下，美联储的利率政策成为市场关注的焦点。近期，美联储内部对于未来利率的走向产生了显著分歧，这主要源于对经济形势、通胀压力、就业市场及政策目标的不同评估。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在面对经济挑战时，已采取了降息措施以刺激经济增长，但未来利率的进一步调整方向仍充满不确定性。本文将深入探讨美联储内部产生分歧的原因，分析杰罗姆·鲍威尔降息决策的背景，并展望美联储未来可能采取的利率政策，帮助读者更好地理解这一全球金融市场的核心议题。
Why the Federal Reserve is split on the future of interest rates
美联储为何对利率产生分歧
1
A single dissent on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate committee garnered plenty of attention last week. Understandably so. It marked the first time since 2005 that a Fed governor had opposed a rate decision. Michelle Bowman’s disagreement highlighted concerns that a half-percentage-point cut might be excessive for an economy yet to vanquish inflation. Nevertheless, her 11 other voting colleagues all supported the cut—an indication of near-total unanimity on where the Fed should set rates today.
dissent n.异议
vanquish /ˈvæŋkwɪʃ/v.战胜；征服
unanimity /ˌjuːnəˈnɪməti/n. 同意，全体一致
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上周，美联储利率委员会的一次异议引起了广泛关注。这是可以理解的。这是自 2005 年以来美联储理事首次反对利率决定。米歇尔·鲍曼的反对意见凸显了人们的担忧，即对于尚未战胜通胀的经济来说，降息半个百分点可能过于过度。尽管如此，她的其他 11 位投票同事都支持降息——这表明美联储今天应该将利率设定在什么水平上几乎完全一致。
Unremarked, and perhaps more remarkable, was an utter lack of consensus on where the Fed’s benchmark rate should ultimately land. The central bank’s policymakers make projections every quarter. Their latest update, published on September 18th, revealed that their views on long-term interest rates are the most dispersed since the Fed started publishing these “dot plot” projections in 2012. Of the 19 officials who made forecasts (the committee’s 12 voters plus seven regional Fed presidents), a maximum of three agreed on any level for long-run rates. In all they made 11 different forecasts, from a low of 2.375% to a high of 3.75%.
benchmark /ˈbentʃmɑːrk/n.基准
disperse /dɪˈspɜːrs/v.分散；散布，传播
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Such a wide range obviously reflects a high degree of uncertainty. It also points to a fundamental problem with monetary policy: the extreme fuzziness of the neutral real rate of interest, a supposed guidepost for central bankers. Defined simply, the neutral real rate (or r-star, as it is known for short) is the rate that applies when the economy is growing at its exact potential, with inflation steady and employment at its stable maximum. In this perfect equilibrium—a nirvana for central bankers—interest rates would be neither expansionary nor contractionary.
fuzziness /ˈfʌzinəs/n.模糊不清
the neutral real rate 中性实际利率，它指的是既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的实际利率水平。在这个利率水平下，货币供应与经济增长的需求相匹配，既不会引发通货膨胀，也不会导致经济衰退
equilibrium /ˌiːkwɪˈlɪbriəm/n.均势；平衡
nirvana /nɪrˈvɑːnə/n. 涅槃；天堂
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R-star does not exist in observable reality, so there is no way of proving conclusively how high or low it is. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, often harks back to John Henry Williams, an economist who drew on theology in explaining the neutral rate. “Like faith, it is seen by its works,” he wrote in 1931. That is a clever quip but also quite damning: the corollary of “knowing neutral by its works” is that economists are really only equipped to see it after the fact. If the economy is too hot, rates are presumably below neutral; if too cold, they must be above neutral. As a practical target for central bankers, post-hoc derivations of r-star are not much use.
drew on 利用，借鉴
theology /θiˈɑːlədʒi/n. 神学
quip /kwɪp/n.俏皮话
post-hoc 事后推理
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R-star 在可观察的现实中并不存在，因此无法确切证明它有多高或多低。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔经常提到约翰·亨利·威廉姆斯，这位经济学家曾从神学角度解释中性利率。他在 1931 年写道：“就像信仰一样，它从行为中可见。”这是一个聪明的俏皮话，但也相当具有批判性：“从行为中了解中性”的必然结果是，经济学家实际上只能在事后看到它。如果经济过热，利率大概低于中性利率；如果经济过冷，利率必定高于中性利率。作为央行行长的实际目标，事后推导 r-star 并没有多大用处。
The current debate features two camps. The first believes that neutral rates have risen in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic. Higher productivity growth, perhaps as a result of artificial intelligence, would push up potential growth and, as a result, r-star. More damagingly, higher fiscal deficits may also place upward pressure on the neutral rate. The other camp believes that long-running trends which weighed on rates before the pandemic are reasserting themselves—notably, an ageing population that saves more and innovates less. It is an important debate. Yet it does not yield a solid measure for determining whether r-star has risen.
in the wake of 在……之后
yield /jiːld/v. 产生
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当前的争论分为两大阵营。第一阵营认为，在新冠疫情爆发后，中性利率已经上升。生产力增长加快（可能是人工智能的结果）将推高潜在增长率，从而推高 r-star。更糟糕的是，更高的财政赤字也可能对中性利率造成上行压力。另一阵营认为，疫情爆发前长期存在的利率压力正在重新显现——尤其是人口老龄化导致储蓄增加、创新减少。这是一场重要的辩论。然而，它并没有给出一个可靠的衡量标准来确定 r-star 是否已经上升。
Journal：economist
Title：Why the Federal Reserve is split on the future of interest rates（Sep 26th 2024）
Category：Finance & economics
END
写作句式积累
①The current debate features two camps. The first believes that...... The other camp believes that......
当前的辩论分为两个阵营。第一种认为......另一个阵营认为......
②It would, though, be inadvisable to put this, or any, model on a pedestal.
put ... on a pedestal 把...奉为圭臬；对...盲目崇拜
翻译练习
Central banks are not flying blind. They have lots of data and theory that help them decide whether rates are high or low, from measures of output and inflation to estimates of potential growth, full employment and inflation expectations.
翻译练习，欢迎大家文末留言打卡，下期推送文章公布答案哟，一起阅外刊学英语吧！
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