上期答案
Do not romanticize poverty. Do not exoticize underdevelopment. Do not indulge in naïve fantasies about the hardships of preindustrial life.
不要将贫困理想化，不要将不发达状态异国情调化，也不要沉湎于对前工业时代生活艰辛的天真幻想。
本期内容
早上好，读者朋友们，今天分享的文章选自《每日电讯报》。在全球经济风云变幻的当下，黄金，这一传统避险资产，正以其独特的魅力吸引着全球投资者的目光。近期，黄金价格持续攀升，不仅突破了多个关键阻力位，更在不确定性加剧的市场环境中展现出其作为“避风港”的强大吸引力。那么，面对黄金市场的这一轮上涨行情，投资者是否应该把握时机，将资金注入这片金色的海洋呢？
Gold is booming – but is now a good time to invest?
黄金正在蓬勃发展，但现在是投资的好时机吗?
1
The last two years have been kind to investors. The year 2022 was a brutal readjustment to the end of the cheap money era that lasted from the financial crisis to Covid. But once prices had reset by October that year, the stage was set for a renewed bull market.The FTSE 100 has provided a total return of nearly 25pc, including reinvested dividends, and the S&P 500 around double that. Bonds, too, have stabilised in anticipation of a turn in the interest rate cycle; the Bloomberg Global Aggregate index, also a combination of capital and income, has offered diversification and a 3pc return over the same period.
brutal adj. 野蛮的，凶残的
bull market 牛市：证券或商品持续上涨的市场，与熊市相对比
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过去两年对投资者来说是好事。2022年是对从金融危机持续到新冠肺炎的廉价货币时代结束的残酷调整。但当价格在当年10月重新调整后，新一轮牛市的舞台就已经搭建好了。包括再投资股息在内，富时100指数的总回报率接近25%，标准普尔500指数的回报率大约是这个数字的两倍。由于预期利率周期将出现转折，债券价格也已企稳;彭博全球综合指数，也是资本和收入的组合，在同一时期提供了多样化和3%的回报。
But one of the best-performing assets over the past two years has been neither an equity index nor fixed income. It has certainly not been oil, which has fallen by nearly 20pc since 2022 as demand from China has plunged and investors have anticipated a slowdown in America.Rather, it has been what John Maynard Keynes described as “a barbarous relic”. Even without the benefit of an income stream (the main driver of total returns from most investments), gold has given investors a 54pc profit since September 2022.
equity /ˈekwəti/ n.股本；普通股
plunge /plʌndʒ/ v.暴跌
relic /ˈrelɪk/ n.遗物；遗迹
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但过去两年表现最好的资产之一既不是股票指数，也不是固定收益产品。当然不是石油，自2022年以来，由于中国需求暴跌，投资者预期美国经济放缓，石油价格下跌了近20%。相反，它一直是约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯所描述的“野蛮遗迹”。即使没有收入流的好处(大多数投资总回报的主要驱动因素)，自2022年9月以来，黄金也给投资者带来了54%的利润。
Gold is a volatile asset and can require extreme patience at times.If you had bought an ounce of the precious metal in September 2011 at the height of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, you would have paid around $1,800 (£1,360). You would have had to wait until the summer of 2020, when there was still no end in sight to the pandemic, before that investment was briefly back above water. Two years ago, you would still have been in negative territory.Gold does nothing for years, and then suddenly it takes off.
volatile adj. 易变的，动荡不定的
take off 起飞
debt crisis 债务危机
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黄金是一种不稳定的资产，有时需要极大的耐心。如果你在2011年9月欧洲主权债务危机最严重的时候购买一盎司黄金，你将支付大约1800美元(1360英镑)。你必须等到2020年夏天，当疫情仍然看不到尽头时，这笔投资才会短暂地恢复正常。两年前，你仍然会处于负值区域。黄金多年来毫无起色，然后突然暴涨。
That is the context in which investors should view the current enthusiasm for gold. There is a long list of reasons that gold is rising at the moment, and it may continue to do so, but surges in the gold price are usually followed by long periods of drift.So why have investors been so keen on gold? First, the obvious – supply and demand. There are some big buyers out there, most obviously central banks looking to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar at a time of economic fragmentation and rising geopolitical tensions.
surge n. 激增，猛增
diversify v. （使）多样化
geopolitical adj.地缘政治的
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投资者可能在这样的背景下看待当前对黄金的热情。目前金价上涨的原因有很多，而且可能还会继续上涨，但金价飙升之后通常会出现长时间的波动。那么，投资者为何如此热衷于黄金呢?首先显而易见的是——供给和需求。市场上有一些大买家，最明显的是，在经济分裂和地缘政治紧张局势加剧之际，各国央行希望实现外汇储备多元化，减少对美元的依赖。
The second tailwind for gold is the interplay between inflation and interest rates. The precious metal finds itself in a sweet spot today between modestly falling but still sticky inflation and easing monetary policy. The third reason gold is rising in value is that, for right or wrong, people trust it. President Herbert Hoover said: “We have gold because we cannot trust governments.” John Pierpont Morgan’s riff on the same theme was: “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Gold has no counterparty risk. The value of shares is tied to the performance of a company; bonds are only as good as the business or government that issues them. Gold is a bitcoin you can put in your pocket. It’s accepted globally and it’s liquid. You will always find a buyer for your gold when you need one.
tailwind n.顺风
interplay n. 相互影响
riff /rɪf/ 即兴重复段
share n. 股份，股票
bond n.债券
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黄金的第二个有利因素是通胀和利率之间的相互作用。如今，这种贵金属发现自己处于温和下降但仍具有粘性的通胀和宽松货币政策之间的最佳位置。黄金价格上涨的第三个原因是，不管对还是错，人们信任黄金。赫伯特·胡佛总统说:“我们持有黄金是因为我们不能相信政府。”约翰·皮尔庞特·摩根(John Pierpont Morgan)对同一主题的即兴演讲提到:“黄金就是金钱。其他一切都是信用。”黄金没有交易对手风险。股票的价值与公司的业绩挂钩;债券的好坏取决于发行债券的企业或政府。黄金是一种可以放在口袋里的比特币。它被全球接受，而且是流动的。当你需要黄金的时候，你总能找到买家。
Journal：Telegraph
Title：Gold is booming – but is now a good time to invest?（19 September 2024）
Category：Business
END
写作句式积累
Gold is money. Everything else is credit.The value of shares is tied to the performance of a company; bonds are only as good as the business or government that issues them. Gold is a bitcoin you can put in your pocket.
黄金即货币，其他都是信用。股票的价值与公司业绩挂钩；债券的好坏则取决于发行债券的企业或政府。黄金就是你口袋里的比特币。
翻译练习
The problem with buying an asset like gold when momentum is on your side is that when the pendulum swings back the other way there is little of substance to support the price.
翻译练习，欢迎大家文末留言打卡，下期推送文章公布答案哟，一起阅外刊学英语吧！
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