外刊阅读 | 波士顿环球报 | 直面“人口悬崖”，高校如何未雨绸缪？

We are so obsessed with information and doing it right and what the data show—and we’re also obsessed with not f-cking up our kids to a point that we’re actually going to f-ck them up.

我们如此痴迷于信息，痴迷于正确处理信息，痴迷于数据显示的内容——同时，我们也非常担心会搞砸孩子的未来，结果反而会搞砸。

The 'demographic cliff' is coming.Colleges must be prepared

“人口悬崖”即将来临，高校必须做好准备

1

The “demographic cliff,” a forecasted drop in the number of college-attending students nationwide, is caused primarily by plummeting birth rates around the 2007-2008 recession, which have since continued to decline. That translates into smaller high school classes, although regional impacts vary due to fertility patterns, international immigration, and domestic movement.

New England is expected to be hit particularly hard. The region has long had low fertility rates and has experienced outmigration, with families moving to the South and Southwest in search of cheaper housing, warmer weather, or better job opportunities.New England, with its many colleges, already has high rates of college attendance. The predicted decline would create shock waves. And because colleges are often anchor institutions in their communities, the impacts of turbulence in higher education could do real harm to local economies.

Declining enrollment is problematic because most schools depend heavily on tuition. So when a college has fewer students than it is capable of serving, its finances are impacted. Ernst and Young’s consulting arm EY Parthenon estimated in 2020 that excess capacity at postsecondary schools in the United States is costing schools between $27 billion and $51 billion annually; to cover that deficit, schools often raise tuition or decrease offerings. Schools that are financially unstable are more likely to shut down, hurting enrolled students.

Of course, there are other factors that impact college attendance beyond demographics. First, there is a shift toward online learning. In the 2022-2023 academic year, 53 percent of US college students were taking at least one class online, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.Second, more parents and their children have become skeptical about whether college is worth the money. Michael Horn, an author and lecturer on education and cofounder of the Clayton Christensen Institute for Disruptive Innovation, said surveys are increasingly showing that parents and students want to make sure college makes financial sense and will lead to a job.

And third, a declining percentage of Americans are finding practical value in their degrees. Nationally, a 2018 report from Strada Education Network and Gallup found that the top reason students attended college was to obtain a good job, yet only 26 percent of working Americans with college experience strongly agreed that their education was relevant to their work and daily life. Restoring faith in higher education, and convincing students and parents that it’s worth the cost, is a long-term challenge for schools. In the meantime, there are four main ways colleges can and should prepare now to address the looming demographic shifts: recruiting new student populations, the way Curry is; doing a better job retaining students; avoiding steep tuition hikes that will scare off potential applicants; and considering budget cuts, partnerships, or mergers.

Restoring faith in higher education, and convincing students and parents that it’s worth the cost, is a long-term challenge for schools. 

恢复人们对高等教育的信心，让学生和家长相信高等教育的成本是值得的，这是学校面临的一项长期挑战。

Each one is painful for students, for faculty, and the community and the college itself. To the extent the state can be prepared and supportive, it’s probably better for everyone.

翻译练习，欢迎大家文末留言打卡，下期推送文章公布答案哟，一起阅外刊学英语吧！

完整版PDF下载（链接有效期7天请及时转存...）

链接：https://pan.quark.cn/s/d8f52632523d

点击下方链接查看往期文章 ↓ ↓ ↓记得点关注哟

扫码关注我的视频号

分享，收藏，点赞与在看，至少我要拥有一个吧↓↓↓