本期内容
It is important to note that déjà vu is a common experience and is not considered to be a sign of any underlying medical or psychological condition.
重要的是要注意到似曾相识是一种常见经历，并不被认为是任何潜在医学或心理学疾病的征兆。
本期内容
早上好，读者朋友们，今天分享的文章节选自《对话》。在这个时代，随着全球经济格局的深刻变革，各国政府纷纷将目光投向了一个看似简单却充满争议的解决方案——鼓励生育，以期通过生育高峰来刺激经济增长，仿佛抓住了“人口红利”的救命稻草。然而，当我们剥开这层光鲜亮丽的外衣，深入探究其内在逻辑时，一个惊人的发现浮出水面：这样的做法，竟与历史上臭名昭著的庞氏骗局有着惊人的相似之处。庞氏骗局，一个以新投资者的资金向老投资者支付利息和短期回报为手段的金融诈骗，其核心在于制造一种虚假的繁荣景象，吸引更多人加入，直到资金链断裂，泡沫破灭。而今，将生育高峰视为经济增长的灵丹妙药，是否也在重蹈覆辙？
The problem with pronatalism: Pushing baby booms to boost economic growth amounts to a Ponzi scheme
生育主义的问题：通过生育高峰来促进经济增长无异于庞氏骗局
1
In the face of shrinking populations, many of the world’s major economies are trying to engineer higher birth rates.Policymakers from South Korea, Japan and Italy, for example, have all adopted so-called “pronatalist” measures in the belief that doing so will defuse a demographic time bomb. These range from tax breaks and housing benefits for couples who have children to subsidies for fertility treatments.
engineer /ˌendʒɪˈnɪr/v.密谋策划；设计制造
pronatalist /proʊˈneɪtəlɪst/n.多生育主义者
defuse /diːˈfjuːz/v.平息，缓和
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面对人口萎缩，世界上许多主要经济体都在努力提高出生率。例如，韩国、日本和意大利的政策制定者都采取了所谓的“生育主义”措施，他们相信这样做会拆除人口定时炸弹。这些措施包括为有孩子的夫妇提供税收减免和住房福利，以及生育治疗补贴。
But here’s the thing: Low – or, for that matter high – birth rates are not a problem in and of themselves. Rather, they are perceived as a cause of or contributor to other problems: With low birth rates come slow economic growth and a top-heavy age structure; high birth rates mean resource depletion and environmental degradation.Moreover, birth rates are notoriously hard to change, and efforts to do so often become coercive, even if they don’t start out that way.
top-heavy 头重脚轻
depletion /dɪˈpliːʃ(ə)n/n. 损耗，耗尽
coercive /koʊˈɜːrsɪv/adj. 强制的，胁迫的
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但问题是:低出生率（或者高出生率）本身并不是问题。相反，他们被认为是其他问题的原因或推动者:低出生率带来了经济增长缓慢和头重脚轻的年龄结构;高出生率意味着资源枯竭和环境恶化。此外，出生率是出了名的难以改变的，即使一开始并不是如此，改变的努力也往往会变成强制性的。
The pronatalist movement is, we believe, inherently misguided. It is premised on the belief that ever-larger populations are needed to spur economic growth, which alone will lift individuals and communities out of poverty.But absent direct state intervention, this additional wealth generally accrues to those with established higher incomes, often at the expense of workers and consumers.Seen this way, pronatalism is a Ponzi scheme. It relies on new entrants to produce returns for earlier investors, with the burdens falling most heavily on women, who are responsible for the bulk of childbearing and child-rearing, often without adequate medical care or affordable child care.
at the expense of 牺牲...的情况下
scheme /skiːm/ n.阴谋，诡计
Ponzi scheme 庞氏骗局（又称“拆东墙补西墙”、“空手套白狼”，利用新投资者的资金来支付早期投资者的回报，以此制造一种虚假的高额利润或快速增值的假象，从而吸引更多的投资者加入）
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我们认为，鼓励生育运动本质上是错误的。它的前提是相信需要越来越多的人口来刺激经济增长，而经济增长本身就能使个人和社区摆脱贫困。但在没有国家直接干预的情况下，这些额外的财富通常会流向那些收入较高的人，往往是以牺牲工人和消费者的利益为代价的。这样看来，生育主义就是一个庞氏骗局。它依靠新进入者为早期投资者带来回报，负担最重的是妇女，她们负责生育和抚养孩子的大部分，往往没有足够的医疗保健或负担得起的儿童保育。
For nearly a century, governments have used access to birth control and abortion as levers with which to try to adjust their population growth rates, but usually in the other direction: making birth control and abortion more widely available – and often pushing them on people who wanted more children – when birth rates were deemed too high.Ironically, while high birth rates were once seen as a barrier to economic development, today low birth rates are seen as a drag on economic growth.
abortion /əˈbɔːrʃ(ə)n/n. 流产，堕胎
drag /dræɡ/n.累赘，拖累
barrier /ˈbæriər/n. 障碍，壁垒
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近一个世纪以来，各国政府一直将节育和堕胎作为调节人口增长率的杠杆，但通常是在另一个方向:在出生率被认为过高的情况下，使节育和堕胎更广泛地得到应用，并往往将它们强加给那些想要更多孩子的人。具有讽刺意味的是，虽然高出生率曾经被视为经济发展的障碍，但今天低出生率却被视为经济增长的拖累。
Declining fertility produces a top-heavy age structure. In the U.S. context, this means a large number of elderly people collecting Social Security relative to the number of working people paying into the system.Experts have been projecting the insolvency of Social Security for decades. But the truth is that the U.S. does not need more babies to keep Social Security afloat. Rather, policymakers can increase the size of the working-age population through pro-immigration policies and can increase the amount of money flowing into Social Security by lifting the income cap on contributions.
insolvency /ɪnˈsɑːlvənsi/n. 破产，无力偿还
afloat /əˈfloʊt/adj.有偿还能力的
cap n.最高限额
if the cap fits 有则改之
a feather in your cap 引以为傲的行为
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生育率下降导致了头重脚轻的年龄结构。在美国，这意味着领取社会保险的老年人数量相对于向该体系缴费的工作人员数量要多。几十年来，专家们一直在预测社会保障的资不抵债。但事实是，美国并不需要更多的婴儿来维持社会保障体系的运转。相反，政策制定者可以通过支持移民的政策来增加适龄工作人口的规模，并通过提高缴费的收入上限来增加流入社会保障的资金量。
Journal：theconversation(21 Aug 2024)
Title：The problem with pronatalism: Pushing baby booms to boost economic growth amounts to a Ponzi scheme
Category：Economy and Population
END
写作句式积累
But that amounts to borrowing from the future to pay the debts of the past.
这相当于借未来去偿还过去的债务。
翻译练习
Seen through this lens, pronatalism offers a hollow-ringing promise that simply having more people will solve social and economic problems faced by a nation’s current population.
翻译练习，欢迎大家文末留言打卡，下期推送文章公布答案哟，一起阅外刊学英语吧！
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