微軟公司: 業務重組的核心邏輯：Azure+AI增速更高，或準備近900億美元級別的Capex+租約投入

事件：微軟宣佈調整全年各部門收入口徑。 將微軟365的商業組件整合到PBP部門，該部門現在包括Office 365商業版、企業移動+安全（EMS）、Power BI每用戶訂閱以及Windows商業版雲收入。

我們關注到最爲關鍵的Azure的最新增長率，從上一季度的同比增長30%上升至35%，其中AI貢獻了11%，而之前爲8%。

Our FY25E takeaways from Microsoft’s revamp of its revenue structure 

Restructure: Microsoft’s updated revenue guidance in late August incorporated a realignment that clusters the commercial components of the Microsoft 365 software and services suite under the Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) division. PBP revenue now stems from Office 365 Business, Enterprise Mobility + Security (EMS), Power BI per-user subscriptions and Windows Business cloud.

Focus on Azure: our eyes will be on the critical growth metric of Azure, which went up to 35% yoy in FY24Q4 (ended June 2024) from 30% yoy in FY24Q3; of this, the AI business contributed 11% vs 8% previously.

業績表現：

投入：可能快速上升到接近年化900億美元量級的Capex+Leases，對利潤表影響的成本可能在百億美元以上。

從10K的微軟年報來看：我們認爲，微軟可能快速上升到900億美元的Capex+Leases。

我們認爲，微軟擴展供應的方式可概括爲兩類：1）自建數據中心（從零開始建造的情況下耗時最長，但可以自由配置服務器）；2）租賃（比從零開始建設要更快，但仍需要一定時間）。

在FY2024，微軟的建築合同達到354億美元，相比去年增長219億美元，這個是其自建數據中心的前置指標。FY24運營和融資leases合計達到61億美元，而微軟對於FY25年之後總租約規模達到了1632億美元，這是其租約數據中心的前置指標。

目前主要用於數據中心且尚未開展的operating和financial leases各自是86億美元和1084億美元，在去年財報，這兩個數字僅僅是77和344億美元。這些尚未開展的租約在FY25-30年陸續開始。我們認爲，這意味着微軟在未來幾年中或將從第三方數據中心獲得大量電、機櫃乃至算力供給。

資本支出：CY2024Q2微軟Capex加租賃190億美元，不加租賃140億美元。微軟指引顯示FY25的Capex會比FY24整體高。與彭博一致預期不同，我們認爲FY25年或至少有850億美元以上的Capex+租約。

Investments: annual capex and leases could rise to nearly USD90bn

Total: Microsoft’s 10-K filing for FY24 indicates annual capex and leases shot up to nearly USD90bn, likely adding a cost impact of more than USD10bn in the income statement. 

Data center supply: we believe that Microsoft expands data server capacities using two main approaches: 

•Builds its own: building its own data centers from scratch requires the most time but it allows the company to freely configure its servers.

•Leases: leasing centers still takes time to set them up, albeit less time than that taken to build from scratch.

Data center capex and leases:

•Capex: the front-end indicator for Microsoft’s proprietary data centers, construction contracts amounted to USD35.4bn in FY24, USD21.9bn more than in the previous fiscal year. 

•Leases: the front-end indicator for leased data centers, FY24 operating and financing leases amounted to USD6.1bn, while post-FY25 leases amount to USD163.2bn.

Yet-to-commence leases: operating and financial leases used primarily for data centers but have yet to commence operation amounted to USD8.6bn and USD108.4bn respectively as of FY24, vs USD7.7bn and USD34.4bn in the previous fiscal year. Operations are set to commence in FY25-30E. We reckon this means Microsoft would have large new capacities for electricity, cabinets and computing power from these third-party data centers over the next few years.

FY24Q4: capex and leases amounted to USD19bn in the last quarter, or USD14bn excluding leases. Microsoft guides higher capex in FY25E than in FY24. In contrast to Bloomberg consensus, we expect at least USD85bn will be spent on capex and leases in FY25E.

產出：微軟Azure增速在FY25H2（CY25H1）有望達到33%-34%。

 微軟此前指引FY25H2之後Azure的增速將受益於AI服務供應的增加，並將有所加速，我們保守估計Azure 增速或有望達到33%-34%。我們認爲以下因素有望促成該目標：1、微軟形成的產品矩陣與品牌效應；2、微軟/OpenAI尚待發布的前沿模型；3、微軟獨特的客戶粘性與生態。

Potential payoff: we expect Azure will drive 33-34% growth in FY25H2E 

The company previously guided Azure’s growth would accelerate from AI service supply increases post-FY25H2E. We conservatively project a 33-34% growth rate, which would likely be driven by the following factors:

•Microsoft’s product matrix and brand effect.

•Microsoft and OpenAI’s cutting-edge models that are waiting to be released.

•Microsoft’s unique customer stickiness and ecosystem.