NVIDIA: 指引Blackwell CY24 Q4大量出貨

投資要點/Investment Thesis

怎麼看待英偉達的Blackwell出貨節奏？

公司Q2收入利潤基本符合預期，營業收入300.0億美元（彭博一致預期290億美元），同比增長122%，毛利率75.7%（彭博一致預期75.5%），環比下降3.2個百分點，基本符合此前指引。營業費用39.3億美元。

Q3收入指引略超彭博一致預期：三季度指引收入325億美元（彭博一致預期330億美元），毛利率74.4%，全年毛利率在mid-70%，營業費用43億美元。

July quarter results met expectations with revenue up 122% yoy

Key metrics: Nvidia released unaudited FY25Q2E (the quarter ended 28 July 2024) results on 28 Aug with revenue and profit roughly in line with market expectations: 

•Revenue came in 122% higher yoy at USD30.0bn in the quarter (vs the USD29.0bn Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG)).

•Gross margin fell 3.3ppt qoq to 75.1% (BBG: 75.5%), roughly in line with guidance. 

•Operating expenses came to USD3.93bn.

FY25Q3E company guidance: 

•Revenue at USD32.5bn (vs USD33bn at BBG).

•Gross margin at 74.4% in the quarter and full-year gross margin at about mid-70%.

•Operating expenses at USD4.3bn.

我們的觀點：

1、英偉達指引Blackwell系列有望在四季度大量出貨，mask改變已經完成。三季度為了實現更好的良率，Blackwell系列mask改變，改變已經完成，並且英偉達將在四季度發貨十億美元量級（billions of ）Blackwell系列，我們認為有望發貨幾十億美元。

2、H系列需求強勁，並且公司在下半年會推出H系列新產品。英偉達的全年毛利率指引75%左右，意味著四季度毛利率大約下降到72%左右，我們認為考慮到不同產品的佔比和BOM差異，H200和B100的總佔比在四季度有望提升。

3、對於Hopper和Blackwell系列GPU的需求繼續強勁增長。我們持續看好NVDA的未來的訓練和推理中繼續根據其數據中心構建芯片與機架產品的快速增長，以及從Hopper到Blackwell到Rubin的產品組合。

GPU giant: our outlook for Nvidia’s Blackwell and other GPUs business

Blackwell GPUs: Nvidia guides it will ship large quantities of its proprietary Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) in CY24Q4E. The company said it has completed changes to the photomask this quarter to raise production yield and expects to ship billions of dollars’ worth of Blackwell GPUs in the last quarter of the year. We peg shipment volumes at a couple of USD billions.

Hopper GPUs: demand for the Blackwell predecessor remains strong and Nvidia is set to launch new H-series products in H2E. Nvidia’s full-year gross margin guidance of about 75% implies gross margin would drop to about 72% in Q4E. Taking into account the proportions and bills of materials variances for different products, we believe margin share for both H200 and B100 will expand in Q4E. 

TFI outlook: looking ahead, we believe the Hopper and Blackwell GPUs will continue to drive strong demand growth. We remain bullish about the company’s fast-growth training and inference business drivers, alongside the datacenter market buildout in terms of chip and rack products. We see bright prospects for Nvidia’s product portfolio encompassing the Hopper, Blackwell and Rubin GPUs.

4、軟件業務高速成長：Nvidia NIM 加速並簡化了模型部署。醫療保健、能源、金融服務、零售、交通和電信領域的公司都在採用 NIM，包括阿美、Lowe's 和Uber。系統集成商、技術解決方案提供商和系統構建商正在將 NVIDIA NIM 代理藍圖帶給企業。NVIDIA NIM 和 NIM 代理藍圖可通過 NVIDIA AI 企業軟件平臺獲得，該平臺發展勢頭強勁。我們預計，今年英偉達軟件、SaaS 和支持收入將有望接近 20 億美元的年運行率，其中 NVIDIA AI Enterprise 將顯著促進增長。

5、我們認為從供給來看，明年下半年對H系列的供應仍有望有擴產空間。

Software business is also growing strongly with multi-market NIM coverage 

The Nvidia Inference Microservices (NIM) division is simplifying and accelerating its model deployments. The companies that have adopted NIM span the healthcare, energy, financial services, retail, transportation and telecommunications industries, including Aramco, Lowe’s and Uber. They have access to NIM agent blueprints – provided by system integrators, technology solution providers and system builders – via the growing Nvidia AI Enterprise Software Platform. We expect software, SaaS and support revenue will approach USD2bn this year, with the AI enterprise business contributing strongly in growth terms. 

Hopper in 25H2E: the above translates into strong growth potential for H-series supply in the second half of next year, in our view.

投資建議/Investment Ideas