京東集團-SW：24Q3業績前瞻：看好後續以舊換新政策驅動核心品類恢復

投資要點/Investment Thesis

宏觀經濟穩步恢復疊加以舊換新補貼政策，24Q3預計收入同比微幅提升

從宏觀環境來看，1-8月份消費品零售呈現穩步恢復態勢，恢復至19年同期的119%。根據國家統計局數據，2024年1—8月份，社會消費品零售總額312,452億元，同比增長3.4%，呈現穩步恢復態勢；從線上消費來看，全國網上零售額96352億元，同比增長8.9%，其中實物商品網上零售額同比增長8.1%，高於整體社零總額增速。分品類來看，家用電器和音像器材類/通訊器材類/日用品類分別累計實現行業零售額5940/ 4765/ 5167億元，同比2.5% / 11.8% / 2.2%。根據國家統計局數據，2024年1-8月份，全國房地產開發投資69284億元，同比下降10.2%（按可比口徑計算）。整體來看行業正處於築底修復階段，近期從中央到地方刺激政策密集的出臺。9月24日，央行在國新辦新聞發佈會上發佈降準降息、調降存量房貸利率、統一併下調房貸最低首付比例等多項重磅政策，提振市場情緒。《關於加力支持大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新的若干措施》印發後，汽車、家電、電動自行車、家裝廚衛等4個領域消費品以舊換新實施細則等配套舉措已經全部印發實施。我們預計，京東集團24Q3收入同比上升4.7%至2595億元，收入增長穩健提升，主要系1）整體來看，政策落地刺激消費情緒，終端消費整體有望企穩回升；2）分品類來看，京東3C家電等核心品類受以舊換新國補政策的拉動，日百品類在3P生態的繁榮下進入良性增長通道；我們認為，憑藉公司較強的供應鏈能力及內部效率優化，未來隨著宏觀經濟向好，居民消費需求或逐步釋放，驅動公司業績向好。

Expecting slight uptick in Q3E revenue from macro recovery, trade-in policy

Steady recovery in macroeconomy and consumption:

•Overall consumption: retail sales of consumer goods from January to August 2024 showed a steady recovery trend, reaching 119% of levels seen during the same period in 2019. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), total retail sales of consumer goods over this period reached RMB31,245.2bn, a yoy increase of 3.4%, indicating a steady uptrend. 

•Online consumption: nationwide, online retail sales reached a total of RMB9,635.2bn, a yoy increase of 8.9%. Notably, those for physical goods increased by 8.1% yoy, outpacing the overall growth rate for total retail sales of consumer goods. By category, household appliances & audio-visual equipment/

communication equipment/ daily necessities achieved retail sales of RMB594.0bn/

476.5bn/516.7bn, up 2.5/11.8/2.2% yoy. 

Policy stimulus and supporting measures: national real estate development investment came to RMB6,928.4bn from January to August 2024, a yoy decrease of 10.2% (calculated on a comparable basis), according to NBS. On the whole, we believe the consumer goods industry is bottoming out and in a repair phase. We note the recent intense rollout of stimulus policies, extending from central to local levels. 

•Policy rollouts: On 24 September, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, the central bank announced a number of important policies, which we feel helped boost market sentiment. They include reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, lowering the interest rate for existing housing loans, and unifying and lowering the minimum down-payment ratio for housing loans. In July, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) jointly issued a document on “Several Measures on Supporting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods”. Since then, various measures have been issued and implemented to help support these policies, including rules governing the trade-in of consumer goods across a wide range of categories (automobiles, home appliances, electric bicycles, home decoration, kitchens and bathrooms). 

Revenue impact on JD.com: we expect the company’s revenue to have increased 4.7% yoy to RMB259.5bn in 24Q3E, and revenue growth to improve steadily, for two main reasons. 1) Overall, we believe the implementation of policies noted above should help stimulate consumer sentiment, and we expect overall terminal consumption to stabilize and rebound. 2) By category, we feel core categories such as JD.com’s 3C home appliances should gain from the national trade-in subsidy policy, while growth in the daily necessities categories has benefited from the company’s advancing third-party (3P) ecosystem. In our view, JD.com’s strong supply chain capabilities and optimization of internal efficiencies, as well as improvements in the macroeconomy that could gradually unleash consumption demand, should help drive the company’s performance.

POP生態建設下產品結構優化，服務優勢進一步強化

從公司業務來看，公司自營業務壁壘深厚，POP生態建設穩步推進，用戶的消費體驗提升有望與刺激消費需求形成良性發展的正循環。通過不斷迭代“春曉計劃”、深耕產業帶提高入駐商家數量，截至24年一季度，京東第三方商家數量已突破百萬；二季度，新增的商家數量環比一季度再度提升了超過40%，商家數量的提升進一步豐富了京東用戶的選擇。同時，公司持續加碼低價舉措，參與京東百億補貼的商品數量同比增長超4倍，並針對服飾和美妝品類、產業帶好物加大投入，京東9.9包郵頻道商品數量較去年同比增長超2倍。我們認為隨著中國消費市場的穩步復甦，平臺的低價供給豐富度的提升或為後續下沉市場的攻堅及老用戶的激活打下基礎。分品類來看，帶電品類受“以舊換新”補貼政策拉動，有望實現新一輪增長。7月24日，國家發展改革委、財政部印發了《關於加力支持大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新的若干措施》的通知，提出要從今年發行的特別國債中，拿出3000億元用於支持設備更新、消費品以舊換新活動。618期間，京東聯合20多個省市級政府給予消費者補貼加碼，北京、河北、湖北、西安、深圳、廣州、海南7個省市家電家居以舊換新成交額同比增長超100%。商超品類有望延續增長勢頭。京東11.11期間將通過“廠貨百億補貼”、10億直播補貼、億級CPS營銷補貼、億級廣告金獎勵等方式，持續為商家帶來千億新增流量。我們預計，24Q3公司non-GAAP歸母淨利潤達81.7億元， non-GAAP歸母淨利潤率同比小幅下滑，主要系平臺投放及補貼的影響。

Gaining from continuing POP buildout and trade-in subsidy policies

POP buildout optimizes product structure, further strengthens service edge

•Growing consumer and merchant bases: On the business front, we feel the company’s self-operated arm enjoys deep barriers to entry, and it is steadily advancing its platform-open-plan (POP) ecosystem buildout while working to improve the consumption experience for users, which should create a positive cycle of beneficial development and stimulate consumer demand. By continuously iterating its Spring Dawn program and cultivating industrial belt partners, it has successfully locked in more merchants. As of 24Q1, the number of 3P merchants on JD had exceeded a million; in 24Q2, the number of new merchants increased more than 40% compared with Q1. We reckon this continued increase in merchant numbers has further enriched choices for JD users. 

•Maintaining price advantage: The company continued to bolster its low-price measures, while the number of goods coming under its RMB10bn subsidy initiative increased more than 4x yoy. It also increased investments in apparel, beauty and industrial belt products. JD.com increased more than 2x yoy the number of its RMB9.90 items tagged to enjoy free shipping. Given a steady recovery in China’s consumer market, we believe that the company’s efforts to improve its platform’s low-price supply and rich product content could lay the foundation for subsequent progress in lower-tier markets and reactivation of old users. 

Trade-in policies and supporting measures likely aided fresh growth: 

•National trade-in subsidies: by category, we expect electrical products would have had a fresh round of growth driven by the trade-in subsidy policy. On 24 July, the NRDC and MoF’s joint notice on “Several Measures to Support Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods” proposed plans to allocate RMB300bn raised through special treasury bonds issued this year to support equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in activities. 

•Company initiatives: during the 618 shopping festival in June, JD.com joined hands with more than 20 provincial and municipal governments to provide consumers with additional subsidies. The volume for trade-in transactions for home appliances and home furnishing in seven provinces and cities (Beijing, Hebei, Hubei, Xi’an, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hainan) increased by more than 100% yoy. The supermarket category would have continued its growth momentum. During the upcoming Double-11 shopping festival in November, JD.com plans to bring RMB100bn in new traffic to merchants through subsidies worth RMB10bn for factory goods and RMB1bn for livestream ecommerce, as well as cost-per-sale (CPS) marketing subsidies and advertising reward programs worth hundreds of millions. 

24Q3E profit: we expect the company’s non-GAAP net profit will come to RMB8.17bn for 24Q3E, and the non-GAAP net margin will decline slightly yoy, due mainly to the impact of platform launches and subsidies.

投資建議/Investment Ideas