李寧:靜待預期改善

文摘   2024-10-30 18:36   广东  

Li Ning 

(2331 HK)


靜待預期改善

24Q3 operational update: after the mixed performance, we anticipate growth ahead

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

2024年Q3李寧全平臺零售流水(不包括李寧YOUNG)同減中單

就渠道而言,線下渠道(包括零售及批發)同減高單,其中零售(直接經營)渠道同減中單,批發(特許經銷商)同減高單;電商同增中單。


截止24Q3李寧銷售點數量(不包括李寧YOUNG)共計6281個,較上一季末淨增加42個,本年迄今淨增加41個。在淨增加41個銷點售中,零售淨減少14個,批發淨增加55個。李寧YOUNG銷售點數量共1459個,較上一季末淨增加21個,本年迄今淨增加31個。


24Q3 business update: total ex-Young retail turnover fell at a mid-single-digit yoy

Sell-through sales update for 24Q3:

•Total offline sales were down by a high-single digit yoy in 24Q3; a breakdown shows:

-Retail (direct sales) fell by a mid-single digit yoy;

-Wholesale (franchised dealers) fell by a high-single-digit yoy. 

•Ecommerce sales rose by a mid-single-digit yoy.


POS network ex-Young: Li Ning has 6,281 points-of-sales outlets as of 24Q3, a net increase of 42 qoq. In the year to date, it net added 41 POS, comprising:

•Retail: a net decrease of 14 outlets;

•Wholesale: a net increase of 55. 


Li-Ning Young POS: the company has 1,459 outlets as of Q3: it net added 21 qoq and net added 31 in the year to date. 


成立合資公司佈局海外市場

10月22日,李寧集團宣佈,通過間接全資附屬公司LN Co與Founder Co、HongShan Venture、HongShan Motivation成立合資公司,目的為在中國內地以外地區獨家開發及經營李寧品牌業務(包括銷售李寧品牌產品)。


資料顯示,成立後的合資公司股本總額為2億港元,其中LN Co、Founder Co、HongShan Venture及HongShan Motivation將分別以現金注資5800萬港元、5200萬港元、6272.8萬港元及2727.2萬港元,分別佔合資公司股本總額的29%、26%、31.36%及13.64%。


同時,李寧集團和創始人李寧一併在合資公司中的持股達到55%,能有效地保障“李寧”品牌的聲譽和保持對合資公司足夠的影響力。引入紅杉中國則可讓合資公司分享紅杉中國的跨境資源及跨境業務經驗,有助於加快合資公司的發展步伐及效率。


International market: Li Ning sets up JV to build out its non-mainland business

JV will manage global market: Li Ning announced on 22 Oct that its wholly-owned indirect subsidiary, LN Co, had set up a JV with Founder Co, HongShan Venture and HongShan Motivation, which has exclusive rights to develop and operate the Li Ning brand and sell the brand products outside the mainland Chinese market.


Exclusive rights: according to the announcement, the JV’s total share capital post-establishment is HKD200m, comprising the following cash amounts invested by the four parties and their share proportions: LN Co invested HKD58m (29%); Founder Co HKD52m (26%); HongShan Venture HKD62.73m (31.36%); and HongShan Motivation HKD27.27m (13.64%). 


55% stake: the Li Ning company and its eponymous founder Li Ning hold a combined 55% stake in the JV, which effectively ensures control of the JV and protects the Li Ning brand. The addition of HongShan augments the JV with its cross-border experience and resources, and could pace up the JV’s development and help raise business efficiencies.


供應鏈整合增效打造產品力基石

供應鏈自今年擴充產能以來,打通上下游鏈條,不僅滿足訂單增長的需求,並且有效提升整體效率,為產品質量提供堅實的保障。集團嚴格篩選供應商,結合信息數字化建設,公司實現對生產流程、產品質量的精細化管理。同時,通過整合材料、規模化採購和錯峰生產等策略,有效控制成本支出,並提升生產效率與經濟效益,推動了公司在產品力、成本控制及運營效率上的穩健進步。


Supply chain integration enhances product strengths and operating efficiencies

After expanding supply chain production capacities this year, Li Ning’s upstream and downstream value chain business opened up. The company has not only been able to fulfill order increases, but it has also raised overall efficiency and firmed product quality. Strict screening of suppliers, combined with digitalization data, have enabled closer management of production processes and product quality. The integration of materials, large-scale procurements and staggered production are among the strategies and economical measures that have helped the company manage cost expenditures and increased production efficiency. These have help the products gain in brand profile.


零售渠道創新優化提升商品效率

物流管理平臺效率持續提升,隨著華東智慧物流中心高效運行,華中、華北及華南物流中心將於短期內投入使用,進一步加速貨品流轉速度。公司採用精細化物流計劃管理,根據事業部特點定製策略,優化貨品入倉與發貨流程。同時,物流信息化平臺賦能經銷商,實時共享信息,提高門店配貨效率,物流服務的質量進一步提升。


Retail channel innovations increased merchandise sales efficiencies

Li Ning increased efforts to raise efficiencies in its logistics management platform. Its eastern China smart logistics center is functioning efficiently, and within the short term, the central, northern and southern China centers will be next. These efforts would boost the flow of merchandise. The company closely manages logistics planning, with customized strategies that adapt to the characteristics of each business unit, and it optimized merchandise warehousing and delivery processes. The logistics data platform empowers dealers to share data in real time, which improves store distribution efficiency and helps improve logistics service quality.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

基於24Q3零售及折扣表現,宏觀消費環境面臨一定不確定性等因素;我們調整盈利預測,我們預計公司24-26年收入分別為284億人民幣、298億人民幣、318億人民幣(原值為290億人民幣、313億人民幣、344億人民幣);24-26年歸母淨利潤分別為31億人民幣、35億人民幣以及40億人民幣(原值為32億人民幣,34億人民幣,38億人民幣);24-26年EPS分別為1.2元人民幣、1.4元人民幣以及1.5元人民幣,PE分別為12x、11X以及9X。


Valuation and risks

We tweaked our financial forecast for Li Ning after taking into account its 24Q3 retail and discounting data, as well as potential macro consumption market uncertainties and other factors. We now project revenue will arrive at RMB28.4bn/29.8bn/31.8bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB29bn/31.3bn/34.4bn) and net profit at RMB3.1bn/3.5bn/4bn (previously RMB3.2bn/3.4bn/3.8bn). Our EPS moves to RMB1.20/1.40/1.50 with our PE at 12x/11x/ 9X. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示:原材料及人工價格波動、環保要求穩步提升影響公司毛利;新品銷量不及預期;渠道鋪設及市場滲透不及預期;行業競爭格局激化等。


Risks include: gross profit factors such as fluctuating raw material prices, staff costs and stricter environmental protection requirements; worse-than-expected new product sales; weaker-than-expected channel buildout and market penetration; and intensifying competition.



Email: research@tfisec.com

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