周大福: 金價持續上漲或階段拖累消費熱情

文摘   2024-10-14 21:30   广东  

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 

(1929 HK)


金價持續上漲或階段拖累消費熱情


Rising gold prices could continue to dampen jewelry purchase sentiment

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

金價表現持續強勢部分影響金飾消費

SGE黃金9999在2024年7月以來上漲約7%,且目前仍處於上漲通道表現強勢;同時,2024年8月社會消費品零售總額同增2.1%,其中金銀珠寶同減12.0%。我們認為主要系金價過快上漲部分抑制終端消費能力,觀望情緒加重。


Macro view: strong gold prices partially dampening gold jewelry consumption

Market metrics: the price of 9999 gold (AU9999) has climbed about 7% on the Shanghai Gold Exchange since July 2024 and it is still rising strongly. Meanwhile, retail sales of total consumer goods increased 2.1% yoy in August 2024, but those of gold, silver and jewelry fell 12.0% yoy. We believe the rapid rise in gold prices partially dampened end-market consumption capacity, even while consumers take a wait-and-see approach.


消費有待恢復,剛需成交為主

據“中國黃金珠寶”公眾號,相關調研顯示,儘管多數首飾品牌會在金飾掛牌價基礎上給消費者一定的優惠,但在高金價背景下優惠力度有限,消費者觀望情緒濃厚,婚慶剛需成交佔主導。


Rigid demand drivers: surveys conducted by the China Gold Jewelry official account reveal that although most jewelry brands have given purchase discounts on listed prices of gold jewelry, the high gold prices placed limits on the discounts. Consumers have taken a wait-and-see approach and transactions have been dominated by rigid demand scenarios like weddings.


周大福FY25Q1銷售表現較弱

由於宏觀環境持續影響消費,中國內地以及香港及澳門的同店銷售均有所下跌。加上黃金價格於高位徘徊,使得季內(截至2024年6月30日的3個月)黃金首飾需求受到影響,這屬整體行業的現象。季內,內地直營店及加盟店的同店銷售分別同比減少26.4%及19.1%,香港及澳門同店銷售同減30.8%。香港的同店銷售減少27.4%,而澳門同店銷售減少41.3%。


周大福致力落實五大策略方針:品牌轉型、優化產品、加速數字化轉型、提升營運效率及強化人才培育,以提升長期競爭力。公司專注於提高盈利質量、股本及資本回報,將繼續採取審慎的資本管理,為所有持份者持續創造價值。


CTF saw weak FY25Q1 sales across market segments and in the general industry

Shrinking SSS: for Chow Tai Fook (CTF), same-store sales (SSS) in mainland of China, Hong Kong and Macau have been declining as macro factors have affected consumption. The price of gold has hovered at high levels and this affected gold jewelry demand in FY25Q1 (fiscal quarter ended June 2024), a phenomenon that was seen throughout the industry. CTF’s directly-operated and franchised stores in the mainland saw SSS shrink 26.4% and 19.1% yoy respectively, while Hong Kong and Macau SSS fell 30.8% yoy collectively, while Hong Kong fell 27.4% and Macau fell 41.3%.


Strategic focus: CTF continues to drive its business along five strategic directions: brand transformation, product optimization, accelerating digitalization, and upgrading operational efficiency and talent development to enhance the company’s long-term competitiveness. It is focusing on boosting earnings quality, equity and return on capital, and wants to continue ensuring prudent capital management to create value for all of its stakeholders.


授出購股權激勵骨幹

公司根據股份獎勵計劃向董事及高管授出合543.86萬份獎勵,佔總股本的0.05%;每份獎勵代表有條件權利收取一股獎勵股份,惟須達成授出獎勵的某些條款及條件。


授出獎勵旨在表彰及獎勵承授人對周大福增長及發展作出的貢獻,並激勵及鼓勵員工進一步為公司增長及擴展作出貢獻。


Plan for 5.44m stock options aims to motivate key personnel

CTF rolled out a stock incentive plan to grant 5.44m share options to directors and senior executives, equivalent to 0.05% of its total share capital. Each conditional share option entitles the recipient to one share, subject to the fulfillment of certain terms and conditions. The purpose of granting options is to recognize and reward the recipient’s contribution to the company’s growth and development, while motivating and encouraging the employees to keep contributing to its future expansion.



投資建議/Investment Ideas



調整盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

由於金價表現強勢影響金飾消費,同時一口價佔比提升優化毛利率;我們調整盈利預測,我們預計FY25-27年營收分別為945億港幣、1039億港幣以及1145億港幣(原值為1136億港幣、1214億港幣、1303億港幣)

歸母利潤分別為59.8億港幣、69.1億港幣、79.4億港幣(前值分別為69億港幣、76億港幣、85億港幣);

EPS分別為0.60港幣、0.69港幣、0.80港幣。


Executive summary and risks

We factor in the dampening effect of strong gold prices on gold jewelry consumption and gross margin optimization with a rising proportion of fixed-price products in building our forecast for Chow Tai Fook. Hence, we lower our revenue forecast to HKD94.5bn/ 103.9bn/114.5bn for FY25/26/27E (previously HKD113.6bn/121.4bn/130.3bn); while our net profit forecast moves to HKD5.98bn/6.91bn/7.94bn (previously HKD6.9bn/7.6bn/ 8.5bn), which implies HKD0.60/0.69/0.80 EPS. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:金價持續上漲,核心高管流失等


Risks include: persistent rise in gold prices; and loss of key executives.

Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)





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