特步國際:索康尼亮眼,主牌穩健

文摘   2024-10-31 17:52   广东  

Xtep International Holdings 

(1368 HK)


索康尼亮眼,主牌穩健


24Q3 operational update: Saucony kicked in a fine performance and main brand XTEP was stable

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

24Q3營運狀況良好

特步主品牌:零售銷售增長(包括線上線下),同比增速位於中單位數;折扣約七五折;渠道庫存週轉,約四個月。


索康尼:零售銷售增長(包括線上線下渠道),同比增長超50%。


Sound 24Q3 operating metrics: stable growth at XTEP main brand and Saucony

Xtep International released its operational update for 24Q3 on 23 Oct, which shows sound growth in the quarter:


Main brand XTEP:

•Retail sales grew at a mid-single-digit yoy in the quarter, comprising both online and offline channels;

•Retail discounting was at about 25%; 

•Channel inventory turnover was about 4 months.


Saucony: the company’s new brand posted a retail sales growth spike of over 50% yoy in the quarter, comprising both online and offline channels.


逆境中把握機遇,用不同品牌瞄準不同人群

在宏觀經濟不確定背景下,對價格敏感消費者會根據產品性價比和功能性來評估購買決策。他們對優質國內品牌的偏愛為特步增添不少市場優勢。作為大眾市場品牌,特步主品牌完美地迎合消費者對高性價比的專業跑步產品日益增長的需求。特步大眾跑鞋的成功及受歡迎程度,從品牌位列中國馬拉松賽事穿著率榜首中可見一斑,多年來助力公司不斷擴大市場份額。


同時,高線城市成熟顧客群日益精明,不斷追求可替代傳統大型品牌的體育用品,推動新興國際體育用品品牌在中國的崛起。索康尼抓緊日新月異的消費者需求,成功躋身主流,併成為中國增長最快的體育用品品牌之一。索康尼作為公司首個實現盈利的新品牌,在其專注於中國跑步和社會精英的戰略性品牌定位的推動下,近年來展現強勁的增長勢頭。


Adverse-market opportunities; matching brands to targeted consumer groups

Against a macroeconomic backdrop characterized by uncertainties, we reckon price-sensitive consumers are opting to buy value-for-money products with strong functionalities. We have observed these key trends:

XTEP: the preference for quality Chinese brands drives Xtep’s main brand’s market advantages:

-Its mass-market positioning feeds growing demand for cost-effective professional-grade running gear. 

-Its high wear rate at Chinese marathon events attests to the popularity of the brand’s mass-market running shoes, which has helped the company expand market share over the years.

Saucony: mature consumer segments in higher-tier cities are increasingly savvy about sporting gear that substitute products made by traditional sports giants, a trend driving the growth of China’s emerging international sporting goods brands. Saucony’s ability to keep up with capricious customer requirements led it into the mainstream to become one of China’s fastest-growing sporting goods brands. As the first of Xtep’s new brands to turn profitable, Saucony’s strategic brand positioning among China’s running and social elites has fueled its strong growth momentum in recent years.


聚焦資源於跑步業務

公司建議戰略性出售K·SWISS及帕拉丁,並聚焦資源於跑步業務,預計將有助於鞏固在跑步領域的領導地位。通過發揮特步主品牌於跑步領域的絕對優勢,疊加中國最大跑步生態圈的支持,以及特步主品牌與索康尼和邁樂之間的協同效應,公司將進一步提高市場份額,拓展潛在顧客群。因此,在持續擴張的中國跑步市場中,公司處於有利位置,能滿足不同社會經濟背景的顧客需求。


Retuning resources to focus on running; leveraging key strengths to expand share

The company’s strategic plan to sell off the K-Swiss and Palladium brands to refocus its resources on the running market would help consolidate its running market leadership. The following dynamics are likely to keep expanding the company’s market share and customer base:

•The XTEP main brand’s running market advantages; 

•China’s largest runners’ ecosystem; and

•The synergistic interplay of XTEP with Saucony and Merrell. 


The company’s broad and substantial coverage positions it well to fulfill requirements by customers from a variety of socioeconomic backgrounds and help expand its share of the running market in China.


優化供應鏈

位於安徽省蚌埠市的新工業園區已於23年5月投入運營。該園區包含約48,000平方米的鞋履生產設施,以及約25,000平方米的服裝生產設施,有助於滿足不斷擴大的業務需求。與此同時,位於福建省晉江市的物流園區正全力建設中。該物流園區總規劃建築面積約240,000平方米,將作為公司中央倉庫,有效地把成品直接運送到品牌零售店舖,大幅提升運營效率。


Expanding its supply chain to meet the company’s current and potential needs

Bengbu base: the company’s new industrial park factory base in Bengbu city, Anhui province, commenced operations in May 2023 to meet the supply needs of its expanding business. It comprises a 48,000-sq-m footwear production facility and a 25,000-sq-m apparel production facility. 


Jinjiang base: on top of these, its new logistics park in Jinjiang city, Fujian province is undergoing construction. The logistics park has a planned area of 240,000 sq m and will serve as the company’s central warehouse to deliver finished products directly to brand retail stores, thereby greatly improving its operational efficiency.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

我們預計公司24-26年收入分別為160億人民幣、179億人民幣、198億人民幣;

淨利分別為12.1億人民幣、14.1億人民幣、16.5億人民幣;

對應EPS分別為0.46人民幣/股、0.53人民幣/股、0.63人民幣/股;對應PE分別為11/10/8X。


Valuation and risks

We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB16bn/17.9bn/19.8bn in 2024/25/26E; with net profit at RMB1.21bn/1.41bn/1.65bn; implying EPS of RMB0.46/0.53/0.63, with our PE at 11x/10x/8x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:市場競爭加劇;新品市場接受度不及預期;終端消費不及預期風險等。


Risks include: intensifying competition; weaker-than-expected market acceptance of new products; and lower-than-expected end-market consumption.



Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

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