Zhejiang Xinao Textiles (603889 CH)
市場份額有望持續提升
We believe Xinao is likely to keep growing market share
BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
公司發佈三季報
公司24Q3收入13億同增11%，歸母1億同增8%，扣非後0.9億同增5%；24Q1-3收入39億同增10%，歸母3.7億同增5%，扣非後3.5億同增6%。
24Q1-3公司毛利率19.4%同比基本持平；歸母淨利率9.6%同減約0.4pct。
24Q3E earnings release shows healthy growth in both revenue and net profit
Xinao Textiles has released its latest unaudited earnings numbers:
•24Q3E: revenue arrived at RMB1.3bn, up 11% yoy; and net profit was at RMB100m, up 8% yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB90m, up 5% yoy.
•24Q1-3E:
-revenue amounted to RMB3.9bn, up 10% yoy.
-net profit was at RMB370m, up 5% yoy, with ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB350m, up 6% yoy.
-gross margin was at 19.4%, relatively flat yoy, with net margin at 9.6%, down about 0.4ppt yoy.
多品類寬帶發展優勢顯現
近年來公司踐行可持續寬帶發展戰略，基於紡紗主業內進行品類多元化擴容，通過設立寧夏新澳羊絨、收購英國鄧肯等舉措，開拓羊絨紗線市場空間。目前已形成以CASHFEEL、NEWCHUWA、新澳、38°N、CASHQUEEN、Todd&Duncan等為代表自主品牌矩陣，搭建覆蓋中、高、奢侈端及針織服飾、運動休閒、家居家紡類等多品種、多檔次、系列化的紗線產品結構體系，為全球客戶提供更精準、更多元化的選擇空間，全面參與市場競爭，更充分地獲取市場份額。
公司新型紗線部前期市場調研及樣品開發初有成效，並不斷嘗試向家紡、產業用、新材料等高附加值紡織應用進一步探索延伸。
Multi-category, full-spectrum development strategy raises competitive advantage
Diverse brand portfolio: the company had rolled out a full-spectrum development strategy recently, where it diversified and expanded product categories around its core wool yarn business. It also entered the cashmere yarn market by establishing Ningxia Xinao Cashmere and acquiring UK-based Todd & Duncan. Xinao’s current proprietary brand portfolio includes CashFeel, New Chuwa, Xinao, 38°N, CashQueen and Todd & Duncan.
Diverse product coverage: Xinao’s multi-variety, multi-grade and serialized yarn product system covers the higher-end to luxury markets, where its product coverage includes knitwear, sports and leisure apparel, and home textiles. Xinao has strong competitive market leverage through its ability to offer global customers diverse choices and more precisely targeted positioning, enabling it to keep growing market share.
Forays into new markets: the company’s new yarn department has had initial results in sample development in early market research. It continues to explore ways to extend business coverage to more high-value-added textile applications, and is venturing into new areas like home textiles, industrial uses and new materials.
產業鏈一體化佈局，提升交付穩定性和盈利能力。
公司是毛紡業內為數不多的集洗毛-制條-改性處理-紡紗-染整-質檢於一體，擁有完整技術體系及紡紗產業鏈的供應商。一方面，垂直一體化佈局由於整合了上游關鍵生產步驟和工序，對供應鏈的把控力度和可追溯性更強，在外界環境不穩定的情況下可以最大程度上保障訂單交付。另一方面，由於業務鏈條更長，從原毛到色紗的全流程解決能力，在新品研發、質量控制等方面的競爭優勢也更明顯，也更利於增強客戶粘性以及產品升級。
Integrated supply chain buildout helps stabilize deliveries and profitability
Xinao is one of a handful of wool textile suppliers with integrated production processes from wool scouring, strip making, modification treatment to spinning, dyeing and finishing, along with quality control inspections. It operates a full technical system and covers the full spinning value chain. Its advantages are multi-fold:
•Vertically integrated market coverage provides stronger control and traceability of the supply chain due to the integration of key production steps and processes, which enables the company to maximize management of order deliveries to the fullest extent in the event of instabilities in the macro environment.
•Its longer value chain coverage gives the company the ability to manage the whole process from raw wool to colored yarn, which enhances its competitive advantage in new product R&D and quality control. Xinao is able to more easily drive product upgrades and improve gain customer stickiness.
技術研發與設計開發優勢並行
公司擁有獨立的產品設計開發團隊，全方位服務於客戶，一方面根據客戶需求設計出個性化的產品，另一方面通過自身的設計優勢引導客戶選擇，從“以市場為導向”到一定程度上“引導市場發展”、“創造市場需求”的角色轉變。
Technological R&D and design development advantages go hand in hand
The company has an independent product design and development team that provides customers with a full-service business. It is able to not only design personalized products based on customer requirements, but also guide customer choices based on its design prowess. Effectively, this has transformed its market-oriented role to one of market development and market demand creation, to a degree.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
調整盈利預測，維持“買入”評級
基於24Q1-3業績表現及目前國內消費客觀承壓環境，海外消費不確定性，羊毛價格不確定性等因素；我們小幅調整盈利預測，預計24-26年收入分別為49、54以及61億元（原值分別為51/58以及67億元）；EPS分別為0.58、0.62以及0.70元（原值分別為0.60、0.69、0.80元）；PE分別為12X、11X、10X。
Valuation and risks
In our valuation of Xinao Textiles, we took into account 24Q1-3E results and the current macro pressures on Chinese consumption and foreign consumption uncertainties, as well as other uncertainties such as wool prices. We nudged down our revenue forecast to RMB4.9bn/5.4bn/6.1bn for 2024/25/26E (previously RMB5.1bn/5.8bn/6.7bn); with EPS at RMB0.58/0.62/0.70 (previously RMB0.60/0.69/0.80) and PE at 12x/11x/10x. We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示：核心高管流失，羊毛持續跌價，銷售不及預期
Risks include: loss of core executives; a persistent decline in wool prices; and weaker sales than expected.
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