裕元集團：9月製造加速，有望受益Adidas上調指引

公司公告月度運營數據

24年9月公司營收6.6億美元同增9.7%，年累營收61億美元同增1.5%；其中製造業務營收單月同比26.7%、累計同比9%；寶勝營收單月同比-14.7%，累計同比-9.5%。

24年1-9月裕元製造業務營收同比增速分別為13%、-12%、0%、3%、+8%、+3%、+22%、+21%、27%；24Q3以來顯著提速，7、8、9月月度增長環比提速。

月度數據走強釋放積極的運營信號，我們預計訂單有積極表現，同時樂觀看待24Q4情況；經過前幾年疫情及品牌去庫週期後，頭部製鞋供應鏈逐步找回成長節奏；伴隨營收成長，製造業規模效應有望逐步釋放，看好製造業務OPM表現；有望帶動公司整體收入業績向上。

September operating data sends a strong signal for full-year performance

By business: Yue Yuen Industrial (YY) announced on 9 Oct that operating revenue came to USD660m in September 2024, up 9.7% yoy, while 24M9 operating revenue amounted to USD6.1bn, up 1.5% yoy. The breakdown by business shows:

•Manufacturing: up 26.7% yoy in September and up 9% yoy in 24M9; 

•Pou Sheng: down 14.7% yoy in September and down 9.5% yoy in 24M9.

Manufacturing monthly revenue growth trends over 24M9:

•Jan +13%, Feb -12%, March 0%, April +3%, May +8%, June +3%, July +22%, Aug +21% and Sep +27% yoy;

•Not only did yoy growth spike in 24Q3 but mom growth also accelerated in July, August and September.

Our take: with the strong positive signal from 24M9 monthly operations data, we expect strong orders and are bullish about its 24Q4E performance. YY, as a leading footwear supply chain, has gradually regained its growth momentum in recent years post-pandemic and the brand destocking cycle. We expect revenue growth will gradually drive up the scale effect in the manufacturing industry and we anticipate a positive manufacturing OPM will drive up total revenue growth. 

Adidas上調全年收入指引，裕元作為其鞋履供應鏈有望受益

阿迪達斯上調FY24收入指引至10%（此前為同增高單）；OP指引至12億歐（此前OP指引為10億歐）；

公司預計FY24Q3收入同增10%（固定匯率）至64億歐，以歐元計營收增長7%。剔除Yeezy影響，FY24Q3收入同增（固定匯率）14%；

FY24Q3毛利率同增2pct至51.3%，OP約6億歐，其中包括出售部分剩餘yeezy庫存的貢獻約0.5億歐。

adidas lifts 2024E revenue guidance; YY benefits as footwear supply partner

2024E guidance: adidas raised its 2024 performance guidance on 15 Oct to revenue growth of about 10% (previously a high-single-digit) and operating profit OP of EUR1.2bn (previously EUR1.0bn). 

24Q3E projections: 

•revenue: the company expects revenue to grow 10% yoy (constant currency) in 24Q3E to EUR6.4bn, with revenue up 7% in euro terms; excluding the impact of Yeezy, 24Q3E revenue growth would be 14% yoy (constant currency). 

•gross margin: up 2ppt yoy to 51.3% in 24Q3E

•OP at about EUR600m, including a contribution of about EUR50m from the sale of part of the remaining Yeezy inventory.

我們認為Adidas反轉勢頭顯現，本輪提高指引強化方向，明確巨頭運營週期，重拾成長節奏。阿迪達斯上調直接利好相關供應鏈訂單預期；裕元作為阿迪鞋履供應鏈之一，有望積極受益，訂單表現或優於短期品牌動銷。

此外，Nike更換CEO，1-2年內也望有積極表現；我們認為體育龍頭中長期具備持續穩定的向上空間。

Global sportswear brands entering growth recovery augurs well for YY 

•adidas: we believe adidas has kickstarted a reversal momentum and this set of guidance upgrades adds visibility to the sportwear giant’s operating cycle as it resumes its growth pace. The guidance revision directly impacts order expectations in the adidas supply chain. This includes YY, which is in the adidas footwear supply chain, and could benefit positively and orders could surpass the short-term brand sales trend.

•Nike: we also believe Nike’s change of CEO will drive growth in 1-2 years. 

•Our take: we believe that sportswear market leaders will drive sustainable and stable growth over the medium to long term.