Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container
(301004 CH)
發佈股票激勵計劃彰顯發展信心
Stock incentive draft plan indicates Cayi’s confidence in future growth
BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
公司發佈2024年限制性股票激勵計劃(草案)
公司擬向核心管理人員及核心技術人員共234人,授予限制性股票119.4萬股(約佔本激勵計劃草案公告時公司股本總額的比例為1.2%),其中首次授予95.50萬股,預留授予23.87萬股;股票授予價格48.3元/股,股票來源為公司向激勵對象定向發行的公司A股普通股股票。
此外,本次激勵對象包含外籍員工2人,將其納入本激勵計劃主要系公司執行大客戶戰略,服務客戶為海外不鏽鋼真空保溫器皿的知名品牌商,同時公司在越南設立了生產基地,加強全球化佈局,提高服務能力,擴大公司產品在國際市場的競爭優勢,以此應對複雜的國際形勢變化;將越南基地核心骨幹員工納入本次股權激勵,有利於海外業務的發展及公司戰略目標實現。
2024E incentives draft plan to distribute 1.2m restricted shares to key staff
Key details: Cayi Vacuum Containers announced a draft plan to grant 1.19m restricted shares (equivalent to about 1.2% of its total share capital at the time of the announcement on 30 Sep). The 234 recipients include core management personnel and core technical personnel. The shares will be sourced from Cayi’s A-share ordinary stock to be priced at RMB48.3 per share; with 955,000 shares to be granted for the first time and 238,700 reserved shares.
Foreign market role: Cayi is including two foreign employees in the share incentives in a nod to the company’s major-customer strategy rollout. To cater to well-known foreign brand customers in stainless steel vacuum insulation wares, it set up a production facility in Vietnam to augment its global network. The company thus improves service coverage, sharpens its product edge in the international market, and is better positioned to manage complex global market changes. The inclusion of core Vietnam base employees points to the role of Cayi’s foreign business and its part in the realization of strategic goals.
業績考核條件為:以2023年營收和歸母淨利為基數,24-26年收入或利潤增速不低於50%/80%/120%。據我們計算,對應24-26年收入不低於26.6/32.0/39.1億,歸母淨利潤不低於7.1/8.5/10.4億。
公司預估24-27年分別產生限制性股票攤銷費用857萬元/2900萬元/1116萬元/396萬元。
我們認為本次股票激勵員工覆蓋範圍廣泛,有利於充分調動核心團隊積極性,且業績考核目標明確底線,彰顯公司長足發展信心。
Performance goal: the conditional incentives will trigger on the realization of the company’s goal:
•at least 50%/80%/120% revenue or net profit growth in 2024/25/26E vs 2023;
•revenue has to be at least RMB2.66bn/3.20bn/3.91bn in those years or net profit of at least RMB710m/850m/1.04bn, as shown by our calculations.
The company expects to incur restricted stock amortization expenses of RMB8.57m/ 29m/11.16m/3.96m in 2024/25/26/27E.
Our takeaways: as the stock-based incentive scheme covers a wide range of employees, we believe it will motivate the core team more extensively. The clearcut performance goals also reflect Cayi’s confidence in its own long-term growth.
保溫杯經營穩健,預計Q3靚麗
根據三方數據,8月美國亞馬遜網站Stanley品牌銷量100萬件,同比+224%、環比+120%,下游品牌數據靚麗驗證公司成長。Stanley強營銷及爆款塑造能力賦予其成長延續性,Quencher系列後Iceflow放量明顯,並持續推出明星/品牌聯名爆品;後續伴隨消費人群拓展及使用場景延伸,我們預計滲透率提升有效驅動中長期成長。
此外,24H1公司越南廠房已完工轉固,我們預計下半年有望貢獻產能增量,有望進一步突破產能瓶頸、提升客戶響應能力及供應鏈安全性。
Insulated containers: business is stable and we anticipate an ebullient 24Q3E
Cup runneth over: Stanley sold 1m thermos containers on Amazon US in August, up 224% yoy and up 120% qoq, according to third-party data. Cayi’s brand customer’s ebullient downstream market data validates the company’s growth, and Stanley’s strong marketing and prowess in creating bestselling products suggests future growth continuity. Stanley continues to launch celebrity and brand crossover products as the Quencher series’ strong performance boosts volumes for the IceFlow collection. As Stanley goes on to expand consumer groups and extend usage scenarios, we expect market penetration increases will drive medium to long-term growth.
Vietnam expansion: Cayi’s Vietnam factory was completed and operations stabilized in 24H1. We expect its contribution will augment production capacity in H2E and help ease production bottlenecks, and improve customer response and supply chain security.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
調整盈利預測,維持“買入”評級
下游保溫杯高景氣延續,且細分場景推動多元需求,公司綁定大客戶加速成長。根據股票激勵目標,考慮當前海外保溫杯發展勢頭,我們調整盈利預測,預計24-26年公司歸母淨利分別為7.2/8.6/10.5億(前值分別為6.9/8.3/9.7億),對應PE分別為15X/13X/10X,維持“買入”評級。
Valuation and risks
Given the downstream boom in insulated containers, we expect further diversity in segmented market scenarios will drive demand as Cayi ties up with major customers to accelerate growth. To better reflect the company’s stock incentive goal and the current growth momentum of its foreign thermos cup business, we upgrade our forecast to net profit of RMB720m/860m/1.05bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB690m/830m/970m), corresponding to 15x/13x/10x PE. We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示:核心客戶份額下降風險;海外需求不及預期;產能擴張不及預期;股權激勵計劃僅為草案,請以公司最終公告為準等
Risks include: a decline in the share of major customers; lower-than-expected export demand; and less production capacity expansion than expected. Note: as the equity incentives are at the draft plan stage, we would watch for the company’s final announcement.
Email: research@tfisec.com
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