騰訊控股: AI業務加速落地,平臺互通趨勢或催生新增長點

文摘   2024-10-03 16:22   中国香港  

Tencent Holdings 

(0700 HK)


AI業務加速落地,平臺互通趨勢或催生新增長點


Tencent summit takeaways: debut products could add new AI growth catalysts with platform interconnections

TP:HKD476.00    BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

新一代“騰訊混元Turbo”模型的中文能力對標GPT-4o,2B AI產品體系全面,2C AI產品亦在加快升級

9月5日,騰訊推出新一代大模型“騰訊混元Turbo”,通過自研的萬億級層間異構MoE結構,混元Turbo用更多的專家數、更少的激活參數量實現了更好的效果。相比前代模型,騰訊混元Turbo性能顯著提升,訓練效率提升108%,推理效率提升100%,推理成本降低 50%,效果在多個基準測試上對標GPT-4o。在中文大模型測評基準SuperCLUE發佈《中文大模型基準測評2024年8月報告》中騰訊混元大模型總得分居國內大模型第一名。目前,騰訊混元Turbo已經在騰訊雲上線,輸入和輸出價格只有前代模型的一半。企業和開發者可以通過API、專屬模型、精調模型等方式使用騰訊混元大模型相關能力。


此外,騰訊還發布了AI infra品牌“騰訊雲智算”。騰訊雲智算整合了騰訊雲高性能計算HCC、高性能網絡IHN星脈、高性能雲存儲、加速框架、容器、向量數據庫、智算套件等騰訊雲產品。騰訊雲副總裁表示,騰訊雲智算目前已經服務了國內90%的大模型廠商,也幫助一大批IDC(數據中心)廠商向AIDC(智算中心)廠商轉型。


AI line-up: Hunyuan Turbo takes on GPT-4 omni; wider B2B matrix; B2C upgrades

Hunyuan Turbo: Tencent Holdings launched Hunyuan Turbo, the latest version of its proprietary foundation large language model (LLM), at the company’s flagship Global Digital Ecosystem Summit on 5 Sept in Shenzhen. The amped-up LLM, based on a mixture of experts (MOE) trillion-level interlayer heterogeneous structure, produces much better results through the use of more experts and fewer activation parameters. Relative to its predecessor, Hunyuan Turbo doubles training efficiency (by 108%) and inference efficiency (by 100%), while cutting inference costs by half. We reckon its performance is comparable to GPT-4o on several benchmarks.


The SuperCLUE LLM benchmark, which evaluates and ranks Chinese and global LLMs, currently places Tencent’s Hunyuan Turbo at the top among Chinese LLMs based on the total score. Hunyuan Turbo was released on Tencent Cloud with input and output prices at only half of its predecessor’s. Companies and developers access its LLM functionalities via APIs, proprietary models and fine-tuned models, for instance.


AI Infra: the Shenzhen summit participants also witnessed the debut of AI Infra, a complete suite of computing, storage and networking solutions. It integrates Tencent Cloud products like its Hyper Computing Cluster (HCC), high-performance network (IHN) StarPulse, high-performance cloud storage, acceleration frameworks, containers, vector databases and its smart computing suite. AI Infra has served 90% of China’s LLM manufacturers and helped pivot the business of many internet data center (IDC) manufacturers to artificial intelligence data centers (AIDC), according to a Tencent Cloud vice president.


當前騰訊的大模型產品矩陣包括底層基礎設施(高性能計算HCC、高性能網絡星脈、高性能雲儲存、加速框架、智算套件等)、中層的騰訊雲TI平臺(提供騰訊混元大模型、騰訊雲行業大模型、主流開源模型供選擇)、上層的平臺工具(圖像創作引擎、知識引擎、視頻創作引擎、騰訊元器)和各類智能應用(智能客服、知識管理、智能營銷、內容創意、研發提效、辦公協同、數據分析、風險管控等)。


去年9月騰訊推出【騰訊混元助手】小程序,今年5月推出了元寶APP和智能體開發平臺元器。根據【極客公園公眾號】在7月3日發佈的對騰訊混元大模型負責人劉煜宏的採訪,到目前為止,騰訊內部有接近700個業務接入混元,內部調用量接近3億次,其中7成左右直接調用API,3成左右由混元團隊與業務部門共同參與精調。


我們堅定看好公司的入口、場景、數據等優勢在長期AI業務發展中提供堅實支撐。今年來,騰訊AI業務B端、C段產品進展不斷,我們認為,騰訊大模型基礎能力和應用結合整體處在趨於加速的狀態。


LLM product matrix: Tencent’s LLM product line-up currently covers:

•Underlying infrastructure: high-performance computing, IHN, high-performance cloud storage, acceleration frameworks, the smart computing suite.

•Mid-level Tencent Cloud TI platform: it offers a selection such as Hunyuan, Tencent Cloud industry LLMs and mainstream open-source models.

•Upper-level platform tools: image creation engines, knowledge engines, video creation engines, Tencent Yuanqi.

•Smart applications: smart customer service, knowledge management, smart marketing, content creation, R&D efficiency improvements, office collaborations, data analysis, and risk management and control.


Related apps: after rolling out the Hunyuan Assistant mini-program in September last year, Tencent went on to launch the Yuanbao app and smart body development platform Yuanqi in May this year. Hunyuan LLM chief Liu Yuhong, in an interview published by Geek Park on 3 July, revealed that nearly 700 Tencent internal services to date are connected to Hunyuan and it has serviced nearly 300m internal calls, 70% of which are direct calls to the API, while the remaining 30% are fine-tuned by the Hunyuan team and other business departments.


TFI outlook: we are strongly bullish about Tencent’s competitive advantages in terms of entrances, usage scenarios and data, which we believe are firm fundamentals for its long-term AI business development. Its AI B2B and B2C products have made steady progress this year. We believe Tencent’s combined LLM basic functionalities and applications will gather pace overall. 


淘寶接入微信支付,關注平臺雙方對於非閉環交易的合作策略

9月4日,淘寶發佈公告稱,為提升消費者購物體驗,計劃新增微信支付能力。同一天,據第一財經報道,美團外賣、美團酒店正式入駐支付寶小程序,美團團購或將於近日上線。我們預計,淘寶微信支付互通,對於騰訊的潛在影響或包括:1)有助於增加微信支付手續費收入;2)有助於淘寶平臺及其商家與騰訊廣告平臺加強合作;3)有助於淘寶商家通過微信經營私域運營。持續關注淘寶中微信支付營銷工具的推廣節奏、以及平臺雙方對於非閉環交易的合作策略。


Taobao adds WeChat Pay: monitor strategic synergies in external transactions

Taobao announced on 4 Sep it will add the WeChat payment functionality to enhance the consumer shopping experience. That same day, Meituan Waimai and Meituan Hotel ecommerce platforms began to interface with the Alipay mini-program, and the company could potentially add it to Meituan Group Buys in the near future. 


We anticipate Taobao and WeChat Pay potential synergies: 

•More WeChat Pay fee income. 

•Boost cooperation between the Taobao platform and its merchants with Tencent’s advertising platform. 

•Help Taobao merchants run their private domain operations through WeChat. 


TFI outlook: we would monitor the pace of promotions at the WeChat Pay marketing tools on Taobao, as well as the collaboration strategies of both parties on the platform for external transactions.


《三角洲行動》上線在即,持續關注《地下城與勇士:起源》運營節奏

隨著長線產品恢復增長,疊加《地下城與勇士:起源》貢獻流入逐步確認收入,我們預計下半年公司遊戲收入增速將繼續逐季提升。邊際層面,《地下城與勇士:起源》自5月21日上線後,IOS遊戲暢銷榜排名位居前列,絕大多數時間穩居前2位。9月10日以來,遊戲排名略有下滑,或部分與遊戲“長草期”內容更新節奏有關。考慮到《DNF手遊》韓服提前於2022年上線,我們認為國服版本大概率儲備有豐富的遊戲內容更新資源,建議持續關注後續運營節奏。此外,公司的新遊戲《三角洲行動》將於9月26日全平臺上線,或有望進一步增強在射擊遊戲品類的市場地位。


Delta Force: Hawk Ops set to launch; watch DnF: Mobile operational trends

With growth resuming at long-running products and incremental revenue recognition from Dungeon & Fighter (DnF): Mobile, we expect Tencent’s game revenue growth will pace up quarter by quarter in 24H2E. In terms of marginal returns, DnF: Mobile has done well since it came online on 21 May, mostly dominating iOS bestseller lists within the top two spots. Thereafter, the game has dipped in rankings since 10 Sept, which we reckon could be due to a slower content updates in the lull period. However, the Korean server of DNF: Mobile has been operating since its 2022 launch, which indicates the China game version will most likely have access to rich resources for game content updates. 


TFI outlook: we advise investors to watch game content pacing and monitor operational follow-ups. In addition, the new game Delta Force: Hawk Ops launched on all platforms on 26 Sept, which could boost Tencent’s positioning in the shooting game category.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議:

公司AI業務加速落地,行業互聯互通趨勢清晰,中長期下有望催生更多新增長點。短期我們預計下半年公司遊戲收入增速逐季環比提升,邊際關注《地下城與勇士:起源》運營節奏。截止2024/9/23,公司股價對應2024/2025/2026年預測PE分別為16x/13x/12x,12個月彭博滾動前瞻PE低於5年來中位數1.3個標準差,處於10%的歷史分位值。相對納指12個月彭博前瞻PE低於5年來中位數1.6個標準差,處於8%歷史分位值,估值處於相對低位。維持目標價476港元,維持“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

Summary: Tencent has certainly stepped up execution pace in its AI business and its platform interconnection trend has become more visible. We believe this adds potential new growth catalysts for the medium to long term. In the short term, however, we expect game revenue growth will increase quarter by quarter in the second half of 2024E. We would also monitor operational trends at DnF: Mobile. 


Valuation: Tencent’s valuation is currently at a low level: the share price as of 23 Sept 2024 corresponds to our 16x/13x/12x forward PE for 2024/25/26E, while the 12-month Bloomberg rolling forward PE is below the 5-year median of 1.3 standard deviations, which is within the historical 10th percentile. Relative to Nasdaq, the 12-month Bloomberg forward PE is below the 5-year median of 1.6 standard deviations and within the 8th historical percentile. We maintain our HKD476 target price and BUY rating.


風險提示:宏觀經濟增長不確定性;公司新遊戲上線存在不確定性;AI技術商業化節奏慢於預期。


Risks include: macroeconomic growth uncertainties; uncertainties of new game launches; and slower-than-expected monetization progress in the AI tech business.



Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)




文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。




天风国际
天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
 最新文章