嗶哩嗶哩: 降本增效下虧損收窄,三謀驅動遊戲收入同比增長

文摘   2024-09-26 20:59   中国香港  

Bilibili 

(BILI US)


降本增效下虧損收窄,三謀驅動遊戲收入同比增長


24Q2E results: losses narrowed on cost cuts and efficiency measures; game revenue beat expectations


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

Bilibili發佈2024Q2財報。24Q2收入爲61.3億元,超彭博一致預期0.6%。毛利爲18.3億元,超彭博一致預期2.9%;毛利率達29.9%,yoy+6.8pcts。經調整淨虧損爲2.7億元,yoy大幅縮窄72%。


24Q2E results: revenue rose 16% yoy; adjusted net loss shrank 72% yoy

Bilibili released unaudited 24Q2E results on 22 August 2024:

Key metrics: revenue rose 16% yoy to RMB6.13bn, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG) by 0.6%. Gross profit grew 49% to RMB1.83bn, exceeding BBG by 2.9%. The gross margin reached 29.9%, up 6.8ppt yoy. The adjusted net loss narrowed significantly by 72% yoy to RMB271m.


運營數據良好。用戶端:本季度DAU超1.02億,yoy+6%;MAU3.36億;用戶日均使用時長達99分鐘。 創作者端:24H1,通過花火商單獲得收入的UP主數量同比增長34%,通過視頻及直播帶貨獲得收入的UP主數量同比增長76%。


Users: Bilibili saw solid user growth in Q2E as daily active users (DAU) exceeded 102m (up 6% yoy) while monthly active users (MAU) reached 336m, with average daily time spent per user rising to 99 minutes. 


Creators: the number of uploaders who received income through Bilibili’s Huahuo platform increased by 34% yoy in Q2E. Notably, the number of uploaders who earned income through video and live streaming products increased by 76% yoy.


分業務來看:

- 遊戲:本季度收入1億元,超彭博一致預期5.5%,yoy+13%。主要由於公司獨家授權的策略遊戲《三國:謀定天下》驅動。


- 廣告:本季度收入4億元,超彭博一致預期2.0%,yoy+30%。主要由於公司廣告效率的提升以及廣告產品優化。公司現階段已具備將高質量流量轉換爲廣告收入的能力,主要來源於B站廣告模型已經具備從建立心智到深度種草,再進一步轉化爲交易的全鏈路整合營銷廣告模式。


- VAS:本季度收入7億元,低於彭博一致預期3.1%,yoy+11%。主要由於大會員、直播和其他增值服務的付費用戶數量有所增加。在618期間視頻及直播帶貨的GMV同比增長140%+。我們認爲隨着更多直播產品和直播功能的擴建,或帶動直播供給端大幅提升,帶動直播收入提升及直播毛利的持續優化。


- IP及衍生品:本季度收入2億元,超彭博一致預期5.4%,yoy-4%。


Revenue profile: both games and advertising achieved sturdy growth

Games: the segment saw revenue increase 13% yoy to RMB1.01bn in Q2E, exceeding BBG by 5.5%. Growth was driven mainly by the company’s exclusively licensed strategy game, Three Kingdoms: Conquer the World, launched in June 2024.


Advertising: revenue from this business grew 30% yoy to RMB2.04bn, exceeding BBG by 2.0%, as the company continued to improve its advertising efficiency and optimize its advertising products. We feel that Bilibili has demonstrated its ability to convert premium user traffic into ad revenue. For this segment, it has transitioned from building mindshare to boosting market traction gains, with full-value-chain transactions being driven by an integrated marketing and advertising business model.


VAS: revenue from value-added services rose 11% yoy to RMB2.57bn, lower than BBG by 3.1%. The main reason was an increase in the number of paying users for premium memberships, livestreaming and other VAS. During the 618 mid-year shopping festival, gross merchandise value of video and livestreaming products shot up 140% yoy. As more products and functionalities become available for livestreams, supply could improve significantly and help increase revenue and optimize gross profit in this segment.


IP derivatives & others: revenue slipped 4% to RMB516.4m but still beat BBG by 5.4%. 


成本結構持續優化,毛利率持續提升,費用同比下降,虧損同比收窄。成本端,營業成本爲42.9億元,其中收入分成成本爲24.9億元。毛利端,毛利率達29.9%,yoy+6.8pcts。費用端,一般及行政開支/研發費用同比分別下降10%/15%。利潤端,運營虧損爲5.9億元,同比收窄54%,經調整淨虧損爲2.7億元,同比大幅縮窄72%。


《三國:謀定天下》驅動本季度遊戲收入增長。《三國:謀定天下》是公司代理髮行的SLG手遊。公司致力於將三謀打造成常青遊戲,包括與 B 站遊戲社區聯動協同,不斷優化遊戲體驗,快速迭代賽季。根據七麥數據,遊戲發佈以來表現良好,一直位於iPhone遊戲-策略(暢銷)榜單前十。我們預期這款遊戲將爲公司的遊戲業務帶來新的流水增量,同時SLG作爲一款長線運營遊戲,有望驅動公司遊戲業務持續增長。


Continued cost cuts helped improve gross margin and narrow losses

As Bilibili continued to optimize its cost structure, its gross margin increased further, while expenditure decreased yoy and losses narrowed yoy. Cost of revenues +5% yoy to RMB4.29bn in Q2E, while revenue-sharing costs came to RMB2.49bn. General & administrative expenses decreased 10% yoy and R&D expenses fell 15% yoy. Gross margin widened to 29.9%, up 6.8ppt yoy. Operating losses narrowed 54% yoy to RMB585.1m, while adjusted net losses shrank significantly 72% yoy to RMB271m.


Growth driver: newly released strategy game to help boost long-term revenue

In Q2E, revenue growth was driven largely by Three Kingdoms: Conquering the World, the company’s first mobile simulation game (SLG). Bilibili is committed to building the game into an evergreen title, through linkages and collaboration with the game community from the Bilibili website, and by optimizing the user experience while rapidly pushing out seasonal iterations. According to Qimai.cn, Conquering the World has performed well since its release and has been on the top 10 iPhone strategy games list. We expect the game to continue bringing in incremental revenue for Bilibili’s game business. In general, we believe SLG offerings, which tend to have a longer life-cycle, will continue to help drive growth.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議:維持“買入”評級。我們認爲,公司降本增效成果顯著,經調整淨虧損同比大幅度收窄,長期或將受益於“自研精品,全球發行”戰略,未來建議持續關注商業化進程。考慮到公司新遊戲表現良好,我們預測FY24E-FY26E的收入分別爲266/294/325億(前值258/290/322億元),non-GAAP淨利潤爲-1.5/21.4/35.9億(前值-5.6/13.8/26億元),維持“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

We believe Bilibili’s efforts to reduce costs and enhance efficiency have achieved excellent results, helping to significantly narrow the adjusted net loss yoy. We also expect its proprietary premium products and global distribution strategy to continue raking in gains over the long term. We suggest that investors monitor how it fares in product monetization over time. In light of Bilibili’s new games performance, we forecast revenue at RMB26.6/29.4/32.5bn for 24/25/26E (previously RMB25.8bn/29.0bn/32.2bn) and non-GAAP net profit at RMB-150m/+2.14bn/+3.59bn (previously RMB-560m/+1.38bn/ +2.60bn). We maintain our BUY rating. 


風險提示:MAU增長速度不及預期;中概股監管政策進一步趨嚴;數據監管政策進一步趨嚴;DAU/MAU進一步下滑;商業化恢復進程不達預期,遊戲研發和上線不及預期


Risks include: lower-than-expected MAU growth; tightening of regulatory policy on Chinese foreign-listed stocks; tightening of data regulations; further declines in DAU and MAU metrics; a worse-than-expected monetization recovery; and worse-than-expected game developments and launches.



Email: research@tfisec.com

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