新東方-S:聚焦核心業務成長

文摘   2024-11-01 17:54   广东  

New Oriental Education & Technology Group 

(9901 HK)


聚焦核心業務成長


We focus on core business growth


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈FY25Q1財報

本季(2024.6.1-2024.8.31)營收14.4億美元,同增31%;剔除東方甄選自營產品及直播電商業務的營收同增34%;


此外本季出國考試準備和出國諮詢營收分別同增19%及21%,針對成人及大學生的國內考試準備業務的營收同增30%;


教育新業務營收同增50%,其中非學科類輔導在近60個城市開展,本財季報名人次約48.4萬;智能學習系統及設備亦在約60個城市中採用,本季活躍付費用戶約為32.3萬。憑藉豐富教育資源,公司將持續努力實現長期願景,爭取增長同時在穩健和可持續之間取得平衡,並且通過提升服務質量和營運效率來提高盈利能力。


公司經營利潤為 2.9億美元同增43%;Non-GAAP 經營利潤為3億美元同增23%;歸母淨利潤2.5億美元同增48%,Non-GAAP歸母2.6億美元同增40%。

截至FY25Q1,學校及學習中心總數1089家,與截至FY24的1025家相比,增加了64家;與截至FY24Q1止793家相比,增加了296家。截至2024年8月31日止,學校總數80家。


Unaudited FY25Q1E results: revenue up 31% yoy; new initiatives grew strongly

FY25Q1E revenue for the June to August 2024 quarter came to USD1.44bn, up 31% yoy; if we were to exclude East Buy private-label products and livestream ecommerce, revenue would have increased 34% yoy. A breakdown shows:


Entrance exam prep:

•Overseas prep: the exam preparation segment generated a 19% increase in revenue in the quarter, while overseas-study consultations grew 21%;

•Domestic prep: the exam prep business for adults and college students hoping to enter Chinese institutions showed 30% revenue growth.


New education initiatives: this segment grew 50% yoy in the quarter:

•The company’s non-academic tuition covered nearly 60 cities in China and had about 484,000 enrollments;

•It had about 323,000 active paying users from 60 cities using its smart learning system and devices in the quarter; 

•The company plans to leverage its deep educational resources to achieve growth for the long term by balancing stability and sustainability, and in this way, lift profitability by improving service quality and operational efficiency.


Profitability:

•Operating profit was USD290m in FY25Q1E, up 43% yoy; with non-GAAP operating profit at USD300m, up 23% yoy; 

•Net profit was USD250m, up 48% yoy, and non-GAAP net profit was USD260m, a yoy increase of 40%.


Total school network: 

•The company has 1,089 schools and learning centers as of FY25Q1E, 64 more than the 1,025 in FY24, and 296 more than the 793 in FY24Q1;

•It has 80 schools as of 31 Aug 2024.


公司不斷努力改進OMO系統,並應用新技術來提升使用者對教育課程的體驗。與此同時,專注『高性價比』和多渠道策略推動下,公司旗下東方甄選在短短兩年內擴展自有品牌產品,在不同類別中建立488個SKU。企業橫跨在線平臺、直播,並透過與新東方品牌下學校及其他各方合作,策略性地擴展至線下渠道,並分享共同願景,接觸更廣泛的消費者群以追求永續成長。


此外,令人鼓舞的是,文旅業務本財季大幅增長。公司開展高品質海外遊學團,以及針對K-12和大學生的國內研習營。此外還在中國30個特色省份及國際上籌辦多項面向各年齡階層(包括中老年人)頂級文旅項目。公司相信,從本財政年度開始,這項新業務將帶來有意義收入貢獻。


OMO business: online and offline convergence; livestreaming and collabs

Best Buy private label: the company hopes to strengthen its online-merge-offline (OMO) model by applying new technologies that enhance user experience in its educational courses. Driven by its belief in a high cost-to-performance ratio and omnichannel strategies, the Best Buy arm expanded its private-label products within just 2 years and it has 488 SKUs in different categories. The business spans online platforms, livestreaming and has strategically expanded into offline channels through collaboration with New Oriental-branded schools and other parties. They share a common vision to widen their consumer base through sustainable growth.


Cultural tourism: this business grew strongly in the June-to-August quarter. The company hosts quality study tours abroad and study camps in China for K-12 and college students. It also organizes a number of top-level cultural and tourism projects for all age groups (including middle-aged and elderly people) in 30 featured provinces in China and internationally. The company believes this new business will generate meaningful revenue starting this fiscal year.


教育核心業務OPM同增3.7PCT

為更好體現新東方核心教育業務,本季下述經營利潤數據不包括東方甄選自營產品及直播電商業務的財務業績。與上一季度的預期一致,公司於本財政季度同比提升核心教育業務的經營利潤率。

公司本季GAAP經營利潤率(OPM,不包括東方甄選自營產品及直播電商業務)為23.7%,同增370基點。


本季Non-GAAP OPM(不包括東方甄選自營產品及直播電商業務)為24.4%,同增220基點。

公司本季取得1.832億美元淨經營現金流;

本季末公司現金和現金等價物、定期存款及短期投資總額合共約49億美元。


Core education business OPM grew 3.7ppt in FY25Q1; healthy cash position

OPM growth trend: in line with the previous quarter, New Oriental expanded operating profit margin (OPM) yoy in its core education business in FYQ1E. To better reflect New Oriental’s core education business, Best Buy’s private-label products and livestreaming ecommerce business were not included in operating profit data.


GAAP OPM (excluding Best Buy’s private-label products and livestream ecommerce) was 23.7% in the quarter, up 370bp yoy.


Non-GAAP OPM (excluding Best Buy private-label products and livestream ecommerce) was 24.4%, up 220bp yoy.


Net operating cash flow amounted to USD183.2m in the quarter. Cash and cash equivalents, time deposits and short-term investments reached a total of about USD4.9bn as of end-FYQ1E.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

我們預計FY25-27公司收入分別為52、64、75億美元,

FY25-27調後歸母淨利分別為5.6、7.7、10.6億美元,

FY25-27對應PE分別為18X、13X、9X。


Valuation and risks

We maintain our forecasts for New Oriental’s revenue at USD5.2bn/6.4bn/7.5bn in FY25/26/27E; with our adjusted net profit at USD560m/770m/1.06bn; corresponding to PE of 18x/13x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating. 


風險提示:核心高管流失,競爭加劇,消費降級


Risks include: loss of core executives; intensifying competition; and potential consumer downgrades.




Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

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