01
原文：Bourveau T, Garel A, Joos P, et al. When attention is away, analysts misplay: distraction and analyst forecast performance[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2024, 29(1): 916-958.
When Attention is Away, Analysts Misplay: Distraction and Analyst Forecast Performance
ABSTRACT: We construct a distraction measure based on extreme industry returns to gauge whether analysts' attention is away from certain stocks under coverage. We find that temporarily distracted analysts make less accurate forecasts, revise forecasts less frequently, and publish less informative forecast revisions, relative to undistracted analysts. Further, at the firm level, analyst distraction carries real negative externalities by increasing information asymmetry for stocks that suffer from a larger extent of analyst distraction during a given quarter. Our findings thus augment our understanding of the determinants and effects of analyst effort allocation and broaden the literature on distraction and information spillover in financial markets.
注意力分散时的分析师出错：分心与分析师预测表现
摘要：文章基于极端行业回报构建了分心指标，以衡量分析师的注意力是否偏离了其所跟踪的股票。文章发现，与未分心的分析师相比，暂时分心的分析师预测的准确性更低、修正预测的频率更低、发布的预测修正信息也更少。此外，从公司层面上来看，分析师分心会带来显著的负外部性，即季度内分析师分心水平较高股票的信息不对称水平更高。文章的研究结论丰富了分析师精力分配的决定因素和经济后果的研究、拓展了资本市场上分心和信息溢出效应的相关研究。
亮点：（1）文章构造了一个基于极端行业回报的分析师分心度量指标，为研究分析师分心打下良好的基础；（2）文章关注于分析师预测行为是如何暂时地受到有限的分析师注意带来的认知偏差的影响，丰富了分析师预测准确性和行为偏差影响的文献；（3）文章关注于分析师分心对分析师预测的影响，丰富了分析师策略性精力分配的相关研究、补充了资本市场上分心的影响以及信息溢出等方面的研究。
02
原文：Cao Y, Hao R, Yang Y G. National culture and analysts’ forecasting[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2024, 29(2): 1147-1191.
National Culture and Analysts’ Forecasting
ABSTRACT: We examine how the culture of origin of sell-side financial analysts in the United States influences their forecasting. We find that analysts from individualistic cultures are more likely to issue bold earnings forecasts and stock recommendations than analysts from collectivist cultures. Individualistic (collectivist) analysts’ tendency to overweight (underweight) their private information at least partly explains the results. The effect of culture decreases with the analysts’ professional skills and their exposure to the U.S. culture but increases with task difficulty. For market consequences, short-window market reactions are stronger to bold reports by collectivist analysts than to those by individualistic analysts, consistent with the analysts’ differential weighting of their private information. On average, however, a higher level of analyst individualism is associated with lower stock price synchronicity of the firm covered, indicating that more firm-specific information is impounded in the stock price. Our study extends research on the effect of national culture in the capital market by demonstrating how individualism, a central element of culture, affects analysts’ information processing and the value of their work.
民族文化与分析师预测
摘要：文章研究了美国卖方分析师原籍的文化如何影响他们的预测。文章发现，来自个人主义文化的分析师比来自集体主义文化的分析师更有可能发布大胆的盈余预测和股票推荐。个人主义（集体主义）的分析师倾向于高估（低估）其私人信息，部分解释了这一结果。分析师专业技能的提升和与美国文化的接触，会降低原籍文化对分析师预测的影响，而任务难度的增加，又会增强这一影响。从市场影响上来看，与个人主义分析师相比，市场对集体主义分析师发布的大胆报告的短期反应更强，这与分析师对私人信息的重视水平不同相一致。然而，平均而言，分析师的高个人主义水平与其跟踪公司的低股价同步性相关，这说明更多的公司特定信息被反映在股票价格中。文章通过说明个人主义这一核心文化特征如何影响分析师的信息处理和工作价值，拓展了资本市场中民族文化作用的相关研究。
亮点：（1）文章探究民族个人主义这一文化特点，如何通过影响认知和心理过程，影响分析师预测的问题，这在已有的关注于文化多样性和文化相似性研究的基础上，拓展了民族文化对分析师预测影响的研究；（2）与已有的文化与分析师预测的研究主要关注预测准确度不同，文章引入了一种新的研究视角，发现了文化对于预测的大胆度和时间线的影响；（3）文章研究了单一国家内部的不同原籍民族文化对分析师的影响，巧妙地避免了跨国研究可能存在的潜在内生性问题，文章发现原籍文化这一社会心理因素会影响分析师的信息处理过程和披露行为，丰富了个人主义对资本市场行为影响的相关研究。
03
原文：Das S, Schaberl P D, Sen P K. Analysts’ use of dividends in earnings forecasts[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2022: 1-43.
Analysts' Use of Dividends in Earnings Forecasts
ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the association between current dividends and analysts' subsequent earnings forecast errors. This investigation is motivated by the evidence on analyst optimism and Ohlson's (1991, 1995) fundamental valuation theory that dividends displace future permanent earnings. For the sample period 1985–2016, we document that current dividends are positively correlated with analysts' future forecast errors, suggesting that analysts potentially ignore the displacement effect of dividends on future earnings. Consistent with theory, this association persists in settings with stable dividends, (i.e., where dividends have limited or no signaling implications) and varies predictably with dividend payouts and cost of capital. We also find that this empirical regularity that analysts do not fully incorporate the effect of dividends on future earnings provides opportunities for arbitrage. More interestingly, we find that the strength of the association between dividends and analysts' forecast errors has declined over the sample period; this decline appears to correspond with the underlying change in the discount rate over time. The finding that analysts' do not fully incorporate the implications of current dividends on future earnings is consistent with previously documented inefficiencies in analysts' use of publicly available information. However, such a systematic association with dividends also suggests that it may be a source of the persistence in analysts' optimistic bias and thus offers new insights into analyst behavior.
盈余预测中分析师对分红信息的使用
摘要：文章研究了当前分红与分析师后续收益预测误差之间的关系。文章基于分析师乐观主义的证据以及Ohlson（1991, 1995）的基本估值理论（即分红取代了未来的永久收益）开展这一研究。在1985-2016年样本期间内，研究发现当前分红与分析师未来预测的误差正相关，这表明分析师可能忽略了分红对未来收益的替代效应。与理论一致，这种关联在股息较为稳定的情况下（即股息的信号作用有限甚至为零）存在，并且随着分红支付和资本成本的变化而可预测地变化。文章还发现，分析师未能充分考虑分红对未来收益影响的这一规律为套利提供了机会。更有趣的是，文章发现分红与分析师预测误差之间关系在样本期间内有所下降；这种下降似乎与折现率的变化相一致。文章的发现与先前研究指出的分析师在使用公开信息时的低效率一致，即分析师未能充分考虑当前股息对未来收益的影响。然而，分红与分析师预测误差的关系也可能表明这是分析师持续性乐观偏见的来源，从而为理解分析师行为提供了新的洞见。
亮点：（1）文章的发现表明分析师低估了当前分红对未来盈余的负面影响，因而当前的分红与未来分析师预测偏差正相关，这指出了分析师预测乐观的来源并为其提供了潜在的解释；（2）文章提供了分析师在使用分红信息上的低效行为的证据，这有利于增强对分析师预测误差异质性的理解；（3）与已有研究较多地使用OLS回归不同，文章使用参数化中位数回归(Parametric Median Regressions)以更好地解决异常值的问题，并使用近来研究中常用的非参数化Theil-Sen估计开展研究。
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总编：游家兴
解析：孙倩
审校：伟丽斯 黎俞宏
编辑：潘芳妍
