美国大选胜负何时揭晓;马斯克为什么全力押注特朗普?

文摘   2024-11-05 20:13   北京  
American voters go to the polls on 5 November to choose their next president.
美国选民11月5日投票选举下届总统。

US election results have sometimes been declared within hours of the polls closing, but this year's tight contest could mean a longer wait.
美国大选结果有时在投票站关闭后几小时内就会宣布,但今年的激烈角逐可能意味着需要等待更长时间。


When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?
2024年总统大选结果何时揭晓?

In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning. This time, the knife-edge race in many states could mean media outlets wait longer before projecting who has won. Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks. Narrow victories could also mean recounts. In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, a state-wide recount would be required if there's a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points. Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management, by Republicans.
在某些总统竞选中,获胜者往往会在选举之夜很晚或次日凌晨才揭晓。而此次,多个州的激烈角逐可能意味着媒体在预测获胜者之前会等待更长时间。民主党人、现任副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯与共和党人、前总统唐纳德·特朗普已并肩领跑数周。微弱优势获胜也可能意味着重新计票。例如,在关键的摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州,如果获胜者和失败者的得票率相差0.5个百分点,则需要进行全州范围内的重新计票。2020年,这一差距略高于1.1个百分点。还可能面临法律挑战。共和党人已经提起了100多起选举前诉讼,包括对选民资格和选民名单管理的质疑。

Other scenarios that could cause delays include any election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations.
其他可能导致延迟的情况还包括选举相关的混乱,尤其是在投票站。

On the other hand, vote-counting has sped up in some areas, including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.
另一方面,包括关键州密歇根州在内的部分地区计票速度已经加快,而且与新冠疫情期间的上次选举相比,邮寄投票的数量将大幅减少。


When have previous presidential election results been announced?
以往总统大选结果何时宣布?

The 2020 election took place on Tuesday 3 November. However, US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until late morning on Saturday 7 November, after the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.
2020年大选在11月3日星期二举行。然而,美国电视网络直到11月7日星期六上午晚些时候,在宾夕法尼亚州的结果明朗后才宣布乔·拜登获胜。

In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.
而在其他最近的选举中,选民等待的时间要短得多。

In 2016, when Trump won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.
2016年,特朗普赢得总统大选,选举次日凌晨03:00(格林尼治标准时间08:00)前不久,他就被宣布获胜。

In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.
2012年,巴拉克·奥巴马获得连任,选举日当晚午夜之前就预测到了他的胜利。

However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception.
然而,2000年乔治·布什与阿尔·戈尔之间的大选是一个显著的例外。

The vote was held on 7 November, but the two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida and the race was not decided until 12 December. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state's recount process, which kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.
投票于11月7日举行,但两党在佛罗里达州的激烈角逐中展开了较量,直到12月12日才决出胜负。美国最高法院投票决定结束该州的重新计票程序,布什因此获胜并入住白宫。


What are the key states to watch in 2024?
2024年哪些关键州值得关注?

Across the country, the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening and the last polls will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday. But this race is expected to come down to results from seven swing states. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls close at different times in different regions. State-specific rules could prolong counting in some states, while other states may report partial figures moments after the last in-person vote is cast. Also, some absentee and mail-in ballots, including votes by members of the military and Americans living overseas, are normally among the last to be counted.
全国范围内,第一批投票站将于星期二晚上18:00(格林尼治标准时间23:00)关闭,最后一批投票站将于星期三凌晨01:00(格林尼治标准时间06:00)关闭。但预计这场竞选的结果将取决于七个摇摆州的结果。这些州包括亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州。不同地区的投票站关闭时间不同。各州的具体规定可能会延长一些州的计票时间,而其他州则可能在最后一次现场投票结束后立即公布部分结果。此外,一些缺席投票和邮寄投票,包括军人和海外美国人的投票,通常是最后才计票的。

Georgia - Polls close in the Peach State at 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT). Early and mail-in ballots will be counted first, ahead of in-person votes. Georgia's top election official estimates that about 75% of votes will be counted within the first two hours, with a full tally possible expected by later in the night.
佐治亚州——这个“桃子州”的投票站将于东部时间19:00(格林尼治标准时间00:00)关闭。提前投票和邮寄投票将优先于现场投票进行计票。佐治亚州最高选举官员估计,大约75%的选票将在前两个小时内计完,预计深夜才能得出完整结果。


North Carolina - Polls close thirty minutes after Georgia. North Carolina's results are expected to be announced before the end of the night, however, complications may arise in areas that were hit by a hurricane in September.

北卡罗来纳州——投票站关闭时间比佐治亚州晚30分钟。预计北卡罗来纳州的结果将在当晚结束前公布,但9月遭受飓风袭击的地区可能会出现问题。

Pennsylvania - Voting ends at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) in the Keystone State - the crown jewel of all the swing states in this election cycle. Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania does not allow counting to begin until the morning of the election, leading to an expected delay in results. Experts agree that it may take at least 24 hours before enough votes are counted for a winner to emerge.
宾夕法尼亚州——作为此次选举周期中所有摇摆州中的佼佼者,“基石州”宾夕法尼亚州的投票将于东部时间20:00(格林尼治标准时间01:00)结束。与威斯康星州一样,宾夕法尼亚州不允许在选举日当天早上之前开始计票,因此预计结果会延迟公布。专家一致认为,可能需要至少24小时的时间才能统计出足够的选票来确定获胜者。

Michigan - Voting concludes at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT) in the Wolverine State. Michigan allows officials to begin counting votes one week before election day, but they are not allowed to reveal the results until these polls shut. Michigan's top election official has said that a result should not be expected until the "end of the day" on Wednesday.
密歇根州——在“狼獾州”密歇根州,投票将于东部时间21:00(格林尼治标准时间02:00)结束。密歇根州允许官员在选举日前一周开始计票,但不允许在投票站关闭前公布结果。密歇根州最高选举官员表示,预计要到星期三“傍晚”才能得出结果。


Wisconsin - Results should come in shortly after polls close at 21:00 EST for smaller counties. However, it often takes longer for major populations centres to tabulate votes, leading experts to predict that the state won't have a result until at least Wednesday.
威斯康星州——对于较小的县来说,结果应该在东部时间21:00投票结束后不久就会公布。然而,由于主要人口中心的计票时间通常更长,专家预测该州至少要到星期三才会有结果。

Arizona - Initial results could come as early as 22:00 EST (03:00 GMT), however, they won't paint a complete picture. The state's largest county says not to expect results until early Wednesday morning. On top of that, postal ballots dropped off on election day could take up to 13 days to count, according to officials in Maricopa County, the largest district in the state.
亚利桑那州——初步结果可能在东部时间22:00(格林尼治标准时间03:00)公布,但这些结果并不完整。该州最大的县表示,预计要到星期三早上早些时候才能出结果。此外,根据该州最大选区马里科帕县的官员称,选举日当天投下的邮寄选票可能需要多达13天的时间才能统计完成。

Nevada - Votes here could also take days to count, because the state allows mail-in ballots to qualify as long as they were sent on election day and arrive no later than 9 November.
内华达州——该州的选票也可能需要数天时间才能统计完成,因为该州允许邮寄选票只要在选举日寄出并在11月9日之前到达即可有效。


How does the vote-counting work?

计票流程是怎样的?


Typically, the votes cast on election day are tallied first, followed by early and mail ballots, those that have been challenged, and then overseas and military ballots. Local election officials - sometimes appointed, sometimes elected - verify, process and count individual votes, in a process known as canvassing. Verifying ballots includes comparing the number cast with the number of active voters; removing, unfolding and examining every single ballot for tears, stains or other damage; and documenting and investigating any inconsistencies. unfolding and examining every single ballot for tears, stains or other damage; and documenting and investigating any inconsistencies.

通常,首先统计选举日当天投出的选票,其次是提前投票和邮寄选票、受到质疑的选票,以及海外和军人选票。地方选举官员(有时是任命的,有时是选举产生的)负责核实、处理和计票,这一过程被称为清点选票。核实选票包括核对投出的选票数与活跃选民数是否一致;取出、展开并检查每张选票是否有撕裂、污渍或其他损坏;并记录和调查任何不一致之处。


Counting ballots involves feeding each one into electronic scanners that tabulate their results. Some circumstances require manual counts or double-checked tallies.

计票则是将每张选票放入电子扫描仪中,由扫描仪统计结果。在某些情况下,需要进行人工计数或双重核对。


Every state and locality has rigorous rules about who can participate in the canvass, the order in which votes are processed and which parts are open to the public, including how partisan observers can monitor and intervene in vote-counting.

每个州和地方都有严格的规则,规定谁可以参与清点选票、投票的处理顺序以及哪些部分可以向公众开放,包括党派观察员如何监督和干预计票过程。



What happens if the presidential election results are challenged?
如果总统选举结果受到质疑会怎样?

Once every valid vote has been included in the final results, a process known as the electoral college comes into play. In each state a varying number of electoral college votes can be won, and it is securing these – and not just the backing of voters themselves – that ultimately wins the presidency.
当所有有效选票都计入最终结果后,一个名为选举团的过程就开始了。每个州可以赢得不同数量的选举团票,而赢得这些选举团票(而不仅仅是选民的支持)最终才能赢得总统大选。

Generally, states award all of their electoral college votes to whoever wins the popular vote and this is confirmed after meetings on 17 December.
一般来说,各州会将所有选举团票授予在普选中获胜的一方,并在12月17日的会议后确认。

The new US Congress then meets on 6 January to count the electoral college votes and confirm the new president.
然后,新一届美国国会将于1月6日举行会议,统计选举团票并确认新总统。

After the 2020 election, Trump refused to concede and rallied supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress was meeting to certify Biden's victory.
2020年大选后,特朗普拒绝认输,并召集支持者游行至美国国会大厦,当时国会正在开会认证拜登的胜利。

He urged his Vice-President, Mike Pence, to reject the results - but Pence refused.
他敦促副总统迈克·彭斯拒绝接受结果,但彭斯拒绝了。


Even after the riot was cleared and members of Congress regrouped, 147 Republicans voted unsuccessfully to overturn Trump's loss. Electoral reforms since then have made it harder for lawmakers to object to certified results sent to them from individual states. They have also clarified that the vice-president has no power to unilaterally reject electoral votes. Nevertheless, election watchers expect that efforts to delay certification of the 2024 vote could take place at the local and state level.
即使骚乱被平息,国会议员重新集结,仍有147名共和党人投票反对推翻特朗普的败选结果,但未能成功。自那以后进行的选举改革使得议员更难对来自各州的认证结果提出异议。改革还明确规定,副总统无权单方面拒绝选举票。然而,选举观察人士预计,在地方和州层面可能会出现推迟2024年选举结果认证的努力。

Trump, his running mate JD Vance and top Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have refused on several occasions to state unequivocally that they will accept the results if he loses.
特朗普、他的竞选搭档JD·万斯以及国会山上的共和党高层多次拒绝明确表态,如果特朗普败选,他们将接受结果。


When is the presidential inauguration?
总统就职典礼何时举行?

The president-elect will begin their term in office after being inaugurated on Monday, 20 January 2025, in the grounds of the US Capitol complex. It will be the 60th presidential inauguration in US history. The event will see the new president sworn in on a pledge to uphold the Constitution and then deliver their inaugural address.
当选总统将于2025年1月20日星期一在美国国会大厦广场宣誓就职,开始其任期。这将是美国历史上第60次总统就职典礼。就职典礼上,新总统将宣誓捍卫宪法,并发表就职演说。


Elon Musk, the world's richest person, has launched a far-reaching effort to help elect former President Donald Trump. Musk, who owns X, frequently posts messages in support of Trump on the social media platform, where he boasts more than 202 million followers. At Trump rallies, Musk has occasionally appeared on stage to make an impassioned plea for votes. He has also donated nearly $75 million in support of Trump over a three-month period ending in September, government filings show.
世界首富埃隆·马斯克已发起一项行动,助力前总统唐纳德·特朗普当选。马斯克是X公司的所有者,他经常在拥有超过2.02亿粉丝的社交媒体平台上发布支持特朗普的消息。在特朗普的集会上,马斯克偶尔也会上台发表激情演讲,为特朗普拉票。政府文件显示,马斯克在截至9月的三个月内,为支持特朗普捐赠了近7500万美元。

Even more, Musk recently began a daily $1 million giveaway to registered voters in battleground states. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner subsequently sued Musk for allegedly conducting an illegal lottery. To enter the sweepstake, individuals must sign a petition circulated by Musk's America PAC that pledges support for the First and Second Amendment. The only people eligible to sign are registered voters in seven key swing states, the America PAC website says. Attorneys for Musk denied the DA's claims of illegality and filed documents on Wednesday seeking to move the case to federal court. The daily lotteries are ongoing.
不仅如此,马斯克最近还开始向竞选关键州的选民每天捐赠100万美元。费城地方检察官拉里·克拉斯纳随后以涉嫌非法抽奖为由对马斯克提起诉讼。想要参与抽奖,个人必须签署一份由马斯克的美利坚政治行动委员会发起的请愿书,承诺支持第一修正案和第二修正案。美利坚政治行动委员会的网站上说,只有七个关键摇摆州的注册选民才有资格签署。马斯克的律师否认了地方检察官关于非法的指控,并于周三提交文件,请求将此案移交至联邦法院。每日抽奖仍在继续。


Musk, who leads Tesla and SpaceX, appears to align with Trump on a host of issues, including mass deportation and deregulation. But the election also holds significant implications for Musk's companies, many of which do business with the U.S. government and face disputes with federal agencies.
马斯克领导着特斯拉和太空探索技术公司,他在包括大规模驱逐出境和放宽监管在内的一系列问题上似乎与特朗普保持一致。但此次选举对马斯克的公司也有着重大影响,他的许多公司都与美国政府有业务往来,并与联邦机构存在纠纷。

"The relationship that Elon Musk has with the federal government is unprecedented," Stephen Diamond, a professor at Santa Clara University Law School who specializes in corporate governance and securities law, told ABC News.
“埃隆·马斯克与联邦政府的关系史无前例,”专注于公司治理和证券法的圣克拉拉大学法学院教授斯蒂芬·戴蒙德告诉美国广播公司新闻。

ABC News contacted Musk-owned companies Tesla and Space X in an effort to reach Musk for comment. He did not immediately respond. Musk's America PAC also did not respond to a request for comment.
美国广播公司新闻联系了马斯克名下的特斯拉和太空探索技术公司,试图联系马斯克进行置评。他未立即回应。马斯克的美利坚政治行动委员会也没有回应置评请求。

Here's what's at stake for Musk in the 2024 election:
以下是2024年选举对马斯克来说至关重要的几个方面:

Government contracts worth billions
价值数十亿美元的政府合同

A host of Musk-run firms do business with the U.S. government or receive federal support.
许多由马斯克经营的公司与美国政府有业务往来或获得联邦支持。

"You're talking billions of dollars a year," Richard Pierce, a law professor at George Washington University who focuses on government regulation, told ABC News about Musk's business dealings. "The president has tremendous discretionary power over government contracts."
“你每年在说数十亿美元,”专注于政府监管的乔治华盛顿大学法学教授理查德·皮尔斯告诉美国广播公司新闻,“总统在政府合同方面拥有巨大的自由裁量权。”

SpaceX, an aerospace company, counts the U.S. as a key client. In June, NASA awarded SpaceX $843 million to build a vehicle that would aid in taking the International Space Station out of orbit. As recently as last week, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX with more than $700 million to help with a series of launches over the coming years.
太空探索技术公司是一家航空航天公司,美国是其重要客户。6月,美国国家航空航天局授予太空探索技术公司8.43亿美元,用于建造一辆有助于将国际空间站移出轨道的航天器。就在上周,美国太空军授予太空探索技术公司超过7亿美元,帮助其在未来几年内完成一系列发射任务。

Tesla has also received contracts from the Defense Department and the Transportation Department, among other agencies.
特斯拉还从国防部、交通运输部等其他机构获得了合同。


In all, SpaceX and Tesla have received at least $15.4 billion in government contracts over the past decade, a New York Times analysis found.
《纽约时报》的一项分析发现,过去十年间,太空探索技术公司和特斯拉共获得了至少154亿美元的政府合同。

Tesla has also benefited from billions in federal subsidies. Since 2018, Tesla has received $9 billion in such government support, according to a Reuters analysis of securities filings. The funds have primarily stemmed from a program that rewards manufacturers for exceeding carbon emissions limits.
特斯拉还从数十亿美元的联邦补贴中受益。路透社对证券备案文件的分析显示,自2018年以来,特斯拉已获得90亿美元的此类政府支持。这些资金主要来自一项奖励超出碳排放限制制造商的计划。

"Musk is intertwined financially with the federal government," Diamond said.
“马斯克与联邦政府在经济上紧密相连,”戴蒙德说。


A need for friendlier regulators
需要更友好的监管机构

Musk-led companies are currently locked in an array of disputes with federal agencies and regulators.
马斯克领导的公司目前与多个联邦机构和监管机构陷入了一系列纠纷。

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has embarked upon several probes of Tesla over alleged dangers associated with Tesla's self-driving capability. Earlier this month, the NHTSA announced a new investigation regarding the system's ability to navigate conditions of "reduced roadway visibility."
美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)已对特斯拉展开多项调查,称其自动驾驶功能存在危险。本月早些时候,该局宣布了一项针对该系统在“道路视线不佳”条件下导航能力的新调查。

According to Tesla's website, "The currently enabled Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous."
特斯拉网站称,“目前启用的Autopilot和完全自动驾驶(受监督)功能需要驾驶员主动监控,并不能使车辆实现自动驾驶。”


Meanwhile, the National Labor Relations Board has filed multiple complaints against SpaceX over the terms of a severance agreement as well as the alleged illegal termination of employees who wrote a letter to management criticizing Musk. SpaceX sued the NLRB in January claiming that its administrative hearings violate the U.S. Constitution. In the lawsuit, attorneys for SpaceX alleged that proceedings at the NLRB involving in-house judges "deprive SpaceX of its constitutional right to trial by jury."

同时,美国国家劳动关系委员会(NLRB)已就遣散协议条款以及对写信给管理层批评马斯克的员工进行所谓非法解雇一事,对SpaceX提出多项指控。SpaceX于1月起诉NLRB,声称其行政听证会违反了美国宪法。在诉讼中,SpaceX的律师指控NLRB涉及内部法官的诉讼程序“剥夺了SpaceX宪法赋予的接受陪审团审判的权利”。

The letter criticizing Musk "caused significant distraction to SpaceX employees around the country," the lawsuit said. Some employees involved with the letter were terminated "for violating numerous company policies," the lawsuit added. In July, a federal judge in Texas temporarily blocked the NLRB complaints while the company's constitutional challenge makes its way through the courts. The judge did not provide the reasoning for his decision, but such an order requires a finding that the plaintiff will likely prevail in his or her case, Reuters reported. Federal agencies execute laws enacted by Congress, but enforcement decisions depend largely on directives and personnel decisions made by the sitting president, Pierce said. In turn, he added, the election holds significant implications for Musk in this area.
该诉讼称,批评马斯克的信件“给全国各地的SpaceX员工造成了极大的分心”。一些参与撰写该信的员工因“违反公司多项政策”而被解雇,诉讼补充道。7月,德克萨斯州的一名联邦法官暂时阻止了NLRB的指控,因为该公司对宪法的挑战正在法院进行。法官没有给出裁决的理由,但路透社报道称,此类命令需要认定原告在其案件中很可能胜诉。皮尔斯表示,联邦机构执行国会颁布的法律,但执法决策在很大程度上取决于现任总统发布的指令和人事决策。因此,他补充道,此次选举在这一领域对马斯克具有重大影响。


"The agencies are controlled by the president, and so the president can tell the heads of the agencies to 'do this or do that,'" Pierce added. "They of course have statutory boundaries but they do what the president tells them to do."
“这些机构由总统控制,因此总统可以指示机构负责人‘这样做或那样做’,”皮尔斯补充道,“他们当然有法定界限,但他们会做总统告诉他们要做的事。”

In August, Trump praised Musk for his willingness to fire striking workers. "You're the greatest cutter," Trump told Musk during an interview on X. "I look at what you do. You walk in and say, 'You want to quit?' I won't mention the name of the company but they go on strike and you say, 'That's OK. You're all gone.'"
8月,特朗普称赞马斯克愿意解雇罢工工人。特朗普在X频道的采访中对马斯克说:“你是最棒的裁员专家。我看着你做的事。你走进去说,‘你们想辞职吗?’我不会提那家公司的名字,但他们罢工了,你说,‘没关系。你们都走吧。’”

The Trump campaign said support from Musk and other entrepreneurs underscores the strength of the candidate's economic plans.
特朗普竞选团队表示,马斯克和其他企业家的支持突显了候选人经济计划的实力。

"President Trump's agenda includes economic, energy and regulatory policies that will allow the US to reclaim its global dominance of innovation and technology. When you have dozens of industry leaders like Elon Musk and David Sacks among the long list of supporters, it is a recognition that President Trump is the clear choice," Brian Hughes, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign, told ABC News in a statement.
特朗普竞选团队的高级顾问布赖恩·休斯在一份声明中告诉美国广播公司新闻:“特朗普总统的议程包括经济、能源和监管政策,这将使美国重新夺回在创新和科技领域的全球主导地位。当你有像埃隆·马斯克和戴维·萨克斯这样的数十位行业领袖在长长的支持者名单上时,这就表明特朗普总统是明确的选择。”


A potentially massive tax break
潜在的巨额税收优惠

Musk could stand to benefit from a large tax cut if Trump wins the election.
如果特朗普赢得大选,马斯克可能会从大幅减税中受益。

The tax savings may result from a proposed plan from Trump in which Musk would take a role in the Trump administration as head of a new "government efficiency commission." Since Musk's companies do significant business with the federal government, Musk may be required to sell the stakes he holds in the various firms.
税收节省可能来自于特朗普提出的一项计划,该计划将让马斯克在特朗普政府中担任新成立的“政府效率委员会”负责人。由于马斯克的公司与联邦政府有大量业务往来,马斯克可能需要出售他在各家公司所持的股份。

Under such circumstances, Musk would likely avail himself of section 1043 of the federal tax code, which allows an individual to put off all capital gains taxes on the sale of such assets.
在这种情况下,马斯克可能会利用联邦税法第1043条,该条款允许个人推迟缴纳出售此类资产的所有资本利得税。


Enacted in 1992, this piece of tax law aimed to lower the potential costs faced by wealthy people when deciding to join the federal government, Edward McCaffery, a law professor at the University of Southern California who focuses on tax policy, told ABC News. If he joined the Trump administration, Musk would become the wealthiest person to ever make use of the provision. The tax break could save Musk tens of billions of dollars, according to The Lever, which first reported the potential benefit. Despite the massive potential tax savings, Musk may attempt to circumvent the requirement or forgo a major role in the administration, McCaffrey said. Musk may not want to give up his holdings in companies over which he holds tight control, nor would it be appealing for Musk to exchange fast-growing stock holdings with the less-attractive investments permitted by law.
专注于税收政策的南加州大学法学教授爱德华·麦卡弗里告诉美国广播公司新闻,这项税法于1992年颁布,旨在降低富人在决定加入联邦政府时面临的潜在成本。据首次报道这一潜在利益的《杠杆》杂志称,如果马斯克加入特朗普政府,他将成为有史以来利用该条款的最富有的人。税收优惠可能为马斯克节省数十亿美元。尽管潜在的税收节省数额巨大,但麦卡弗里表示,马斯克可能会试图规避这一要求,或者放弃在政府中担任要职。马斯克可能不想放弃对其严格控制的公司的持股,而且,用法律允许的不太吸引人的投资来换取快速增长的股票持股,对马斯克来说也不具吸引力。

"There are reasons to be skeptical," McCaffrey said. "I don't get any glimmer that Musk wants to give up control of Tesla or SpaceX."
“有理由表示怀疑,”麦卡弗里说,“我看不出马斯克有任何想要放弃对特斯拉或SpaceX控制的迹象。”


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