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最近的美债抛售引起了更多关注，原因被归结为特朗普当选/共和党大获全胜的可能性增加、近期美国经济数据改善、过去几周中国的刺激措施，以及美联储近期的评论表明利率应采取逐步下调的方式。
The recent selloff in bonds, which is garnering more attention in recent sessions, is getting chalked up to a combination of a higher likelihood of Trump getting elected/Republican sweep, better US economic data recently, China stimulus the past few weeks, and recent Fed commentary that has suggested rates should be lowered gradually.
距离美国大选仅剩几周，预测市场显示，前总统特朗普比副总统哈里斯更具优势，共和党大获全胜或在哈里斯领导下形成分裂政府是最可能的选举结果。
With only weeks to go until the US election, prediction markets show a lean toward former President Trump over Vice President Harris and a Republican sweep and a divided government under Harris as the most likely election outcomes.
多米尼克·威尔逊（Dominic Wilson）和维琪·张（Vickie Chang）评估了不同美国大选结果对资产市场的潜在影响，发现中性情况下的影响相对温和。他们通过两种方式衡量大选对宏观资产的潜在影响。
Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang assess the potential asset market impacts of different US election outcomes, finding only modest impacts in the central case. They looked at two different ways of benchmarking the potential impact of the election on macro assets.
第一种方式是“基于基本面的”方法，将宏观和政策情景转化为潜在的市场影响。第二种方式是“基于事件的”方法，观察选举结果概率变化时市场对明确事件的实际反应。
The first approach—“fundamental-based”—translates macro and policy scenarios into potential market impacts. The second approach—“event-based”—observes the actual market reactions to well-defined events over which the probabilities of the different election outcomes shifted.
通过这两种方法，我们估计，在我们的中性情景中，预计的资产市场波动相较2016年和2020年大选期间相对温和。
Using these two approaches, we estimate that the predicted asset market moves in our central scenarios are modest compared to the moves of the 2016 and 2020 elections.
我们认为更大波动的潜力主要存在于与贸易、财政政策以及税收/监管变化相关的尾部风险中，移除这些尾部风险可能会为一些资产带来比我们预期更大的上涨空间。
We think the potential for larger moves lies mostly in the tails of the distribution with respect to trade and fiscal policy and tax/regulation shifts. The removal of these tail risks may also unlock more upside in some assets than we assume.
英伟达（NVIDIA）再创历史新高。
NVIDIA Continues to Make All Time Highs.
在过去4天内，英伟达股价悄然上涨9.2%，除了台积电（TSMC）亮眼的财报和阿斯麦（ASML）关于人工智能（AI）领域需求持续强劲的评论外，并无重大消息。
Stock is quietly +9.2% over the past 4 days on no significant news outside of TSMC positive earnings really and ASML commentary that demand for AI segments continues strong.
尽管大多数科技巨头将在下周发布财报，英伟达要到2024年11月21日才公布业绩…也就是说还要再等一个月。令人惊讶的是，这只股票在5年前还不到5美元，现在已达144美元，创下历史新高。
Despite most big tech earnings being next week, NVDA only reports on 21Nov24… so still a month away. Staggering to see how the stock was below $5 just 5 years ago and is now $144 (breaking all time highs).
正如我昨天提到的，科技巨头股票的仓位（至少在对冲基金中）要干净得多。
As I mentioned yesterday, Mega Tech stock positioning is a lot cleaner (at least among Hedge Funds).
信息技术板块现在占美国整体净敞口的16.1%，相比一个月前的1年低点14.3%，这一比例在过去一年和五年中分别处于第7个百分位，这能促使该板块继续上涨。
Info Tech now makes up 16.1% of Overall US Net Exposure, which compares to a 1-year low of 14.3% a month ago and ranks in the 7th percentile vs both the past year and past five years. This should allow the group to continue to rally.
彼得·卡拉汉（Peter Callahan）认为，目前很难找到让投资者“非常看好”的财报，Meta（高预期收入 + 2025年资本支出/费用），亚马逊（AMZN，第四季度运营收入指引），谷歌（YouTube增速放缓 + 监管风险），微软（MSFT，缺乏Azure的透明度，加上近期EPS修正有限），苹果（AAPL，第四季度指引不确定性）。
Peter Callahan argues it is hard to find a print that investors feel ‘great’ about leaning into right now - META (elevated topline expects + ’25 capex/expenses), AMZN (4Q OI guide), GOOG (YT decel + regulation), MSFT (lack of Azure visibility on top of limited EPS revisions as of late), AAPL (C4Q guide unknowns).
注：昨天是9月初以来，科技巨头（Megacap）相对于其他所有表现最好的日子
Lastly, yesterday was the best day for Megacap vs “Everything Else” Since Early Sept.
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声明：文章内容不代表本号观点，不构成投资建议，也不作为任何法律法规、监管政策的依据，投资者不应以该等信息作为决策依据或依赖该等信息。
