就在昨天，高盛发出了继续做多黄金的通讯，今天黄金一下就逆转了上去，市场里存在很多阴谋论，我们在这里将看多黄金的这篇报告的主要内容整理给大家，希望能对大家有所帮助。
准备好，下面内容开始：
We raise our gold price forecast from $2,700/toz to $2,900/toz for early 2025 for two reasons. First, our economists now look for faster declines in short-term interest rates in the West and China, and we recently showed that the gold market doesn’t fully price in the rates boost to Western ETF holdings backed by physical gold yet, which tends to be gradual. Second, our new nowcast shows that EM central bank purchases on the London over-the-counter (OTC) market continue to fundamentally drive the rally since 2022, and we believe that these purchases will remain structurally elevated.
出于两个原因，我们将 2025 年初的金价预测从 2700 美元/盎司上调至 2900 美元/盎司。首先，我们的经济学家现在认为西方和中国的短期利率会加速下降，而我们最近的研究表明，黄金市场还没有完全将以实物黄金为支撑的西方 ETF 持有量的利率提升计算在内，而这种利率提升往往是渐进的。其次，我们的最新预测显示，新兴市场央行在伦敦场外交易市场的购买继续从根本上推动了自2022年以来的反弹，我们认为这些购买将保持结构性高位。
Our nowcast of central bank and other institutional demand in the London OTC market shows that purchases remained strong through July, averaging 730 tons annualized year-to-date, or about 15% of global annual production estimates, with a large contribution from China. Our nowcast provides similar estimates as quarterly estimates from the World Gold Council (WGC), which partly rely on anecdotal evidence. However, our nowcast is monthly, timely, available at the country level, and transparent as it leverages customs data and institutional knowledge of the London OTC market.
我们对央行和其他机构在伦敦场外交易市场的需求进行的预测显示，到 7 月份为止，购买量依然强劲，今年迄今为止的年均购买量为 730 吨，约占全球年产量估计值的 15%，其中很大一部分来自中国。我们的预测与世界黄金协会（WGC）的季度预测相似，后者部分依赖于传闻证据。但是，我们的预测是每月一次的、及时的、在国家层面上提供的，而且是透明的，因为它利用了海关数据和伦敦场外交易市场的机构知识。
We reiterate our long gold recommendation due to i) the gradual boost from lower global interest rates, ii) structurally higher central bank demand, and iii) gold's hedging benefits against geopolitical, financial, and recessionary risks.
我们重申做多黄金的建议，原因包括：i) 全球利率下调将逐步推动黄金上涨；ii) 央行需求结构性上升；iii) 黄金具有对冲地缘政治、金融和经济衰退风险的优势。
Our Nowcast of Central Bank Demand Provides Similar Estimates as Quarterly Estimates from the World Gold Council, Which Partly Rely on Anecdotal Evidence, But Our Nowcast is Monthly, Timely, Available at the Country Level, and Transparent
我们对中央银行需求的预测与世界黄金协会的季度预测相似，后者部分依赖于轶事证据，但我们的预测是按月进行的、及时的、可在国家层面获得的，而且是透明的。
一、预测 "秘密 "黄金买家，上调我们的金价预测
Despite having rallied 29% YTD and 47% since 2022, gold continues to set all-time highs, reaching $2,685/toz on Thursday. We raise our gold price forecast from $2,700/toz to $2,900/toz for early 2025 for two reasons (Exhibit 8). First, our economists now look for faster declines in short-term interest rates in the West and China, and we recently showed that the gold market doesn’t fully price in the rates boost to Western ETF holdings backed by physical gold yet, which tends to be gradual. Second, our new nowcast shows that EM central bank purchases on the London over-the-counter (OTC) market continue to fundamentally drive the rally since 2022, and we believe that these structural purchases will remain elevated.
尽管自 2022 年以来，黄金已经上涨了 29% 和 47%，但仍不断刷新历史新高，周四达到 2685 美元/盎司。出于两个原因，我们将 2025 年初的金价预测从 2700 美元/盎司上调至 2900 美元/盎司（展品 8）。首先，我们的经济学家现在预计西方和中国的短期利率将更快下降，而且我们最近的研究表明，黄金市场尚未完全考虑到由实物黄金支持的西方ETF持有量对利率的提振作用，而这种提振作用往往是渐进的。其次，我们的最新预测显示，新兴市场国家央行在伦敦场外交易（OTC）市场的购买继续从根本上推动了自2022年以来的涨势，我们相信这些结构性购买将保持高位。
Under our forecast, moderating but still significant central bank purchases on the London OTC market drive about 2/3 of the expected rise of the gold price to $2,900/toz in early 2025. The gradual rise in ETF flows following the Fed rate cuts our economists expect drives the remaining 1/3 of price upside. This forecast also relies on our rule of thumb that 100 tonnes of physical demand lifts gold prices by at least 2.4%, the lower bound of our regression estimate (Exhibit 1).
根据我们的预测，央行在伦敦场外交易市场上的购买量虽有所放缓，但仍很可观，这将推动金价在 2025 年初达到 2,900 美元/盎司的预期涨幅中的约 2/3。我们的经济学家预计，美联储降息后，ETF 资金流将逐步上升，从而推动剩余 1/3 的价格上涨。这一预测还依赖于我们的经验法则，即 100 吨实物需求至少会使金价上涨 2.4%，这是我们回归估计的下限。
Following our analysis of structurally higher demand from central banks, we develop a nowcast of central bank demand in the London OTC market, where most of these transactions take place. We first share the key insights from our nowcast, and then explain its construction.
根据我们对央行需求结构性增长的分析，我们对央行在伦敦场外市场的需求进行了预测，这些交易大多在伦敦场外市场进行。我们首先分享我们的预测中的关键见解，然后解释其构造。
二、央行继续推动 2022 年以来的反弹
Top of mind for investors is "Who is the 'secret' gold buyer?", as gold has rallied 47% since 2022, despite rising rates which typically predict lower prices. While the gold-price-to-rates relationship remains intact in changes, the 'secret' buyer has elevated prices and reset the relationship in absolute levels.
投资者最关心的问题是"谁是'秘密'黄金买家？"，因为自2022年以来，黄金已经上涨了47%，尽管利率上升通常预示着价格下降。虽然在变化中，黄金价格与利率的关系仍然不变，但 "秘密 "买家抬高了价格，并重置了绝对水平的关系。
Our new nowcast shows that EM central bank gold purchases on the London OTC market continue to drive the rally since 2022. Our nowcast of central bank and other institutional demand in the London OTC market shows that purchases remained strong through July, averaging 730 tons annualized year-to-date, or about 15% of global annual production estimates. Our nowcast provides similar estimates as quarterly estimates from the World Gold Council (WGC), which partly relies on anecdotal evidence (Exhibit 3). However, our nowcast is monthly, timely, available at the country level, and transparent as it leverages customs data and institutional knowledge of the London OTC market.
我们的最新预测显示，EM央行在伦敦场外市场的黄金采购继续推动自2022年以来的反弹。我们对央行和其他机构在伦敦场外交易市场的需求进行的预测显示，截至7月份，购买量依然强劲，今年迄今为止的年均购买量为730吨，约占全球年产量估计值的15%。我们的即时预测提供了与世界黄金协会（WGC）季度预测相似的估计值、世界黄金协会（WGC）的季度预测部分依赖于传闻证据。然而，我们的 nowcast 是每月一次的、及时的、在国家层面上提供的，而且是透明的，因为它利用了海关数据和伦敦场外交易市场的机构知识。
China's central bank, the PBoC, is a key focus for gold investors, given its reported streak of 18 consecutive months of purchases since November 2022. Our estimates of China's institutional gold purchases in the London OTC market align with the PBoC reports, but tend to be higher, start earlier, and last longer . While the PBoC reported no additional purchases after April, our nowcast estimates 50 tonnes of institutional purchases from China on the London OTC market in May, with no further activity in June and July.
据报道，自 2022 年 11 月以来，中国人民银行已连续 18 个月购买黄金，因此中国央行是黄金投资者关注的焦点。我们对中国机构在伦敦场外市场购买黄金的估计与中国人民银行的报告一致，但往往更高、开始更早、持续时间更长。虽然中国人民银行报告称 4 月份之后没有额外的购买，但我们的预测估计 5 月份中国机构在伦敦场外交易市场的购买量为 50 吨，6 月和 7 月没有进一步的活动。
三、淘金
We reiterate our long gold recommendation due to i) the gradual boost from lower global interest rates, ii) structurally higher central bank demand, and iii) gold's hedging benefits against geopolitical shocks, including tariffs, Fed subordination risk, debt fears, financial, and recessionary risks.
我们重申做多黄金的建议，原因包括：i) 全球利率下调将逐步推动黄金上涨；ii) 央行需求结构性上升；iii) 黄金具有对冲地缘政治冲击的优势，包括关税、美联储附属风险、债务担忧、金融和经济衰退风险。
After an already very large price rally, we end by addressing the potential factors that may moderate our base case of significant additional upside to gold prices. These potential factors to monitor include a potential softening in our nowcast of central bank demand (for instance because of easing in geopolitical tensions), potentially lower-than-expected ETF inflows (if central banks cut rates less than expected), or a potential sharper-than-expected pullback in China's retail demand due to price sensitivity or a sharper-than-expected gain in consumer confidence.
在金价已经大幅反弹之后，我们最后讨论一下可能会缓和我们对金价大幅上扬的基本判断的潜在因素。这些需要关注的潜在因素包括：我们对央行需求的预测可能会放缓（例如，由于地缘政治紧张局势的缓和）、ETF 流入量可能低于预期（如果央行降息幅度低于预期）、中国零售需求可能由于价格敏感性而出现超预期的回落或消费者信心的增长超预期。
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