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China LPR cut comes as no surprise. Now 20 companies leveraging PBOC buyback facility to borrow to buy its own stock.
中国贷款市场报价利率（LPR）下调并不意外。目前已有20家公司利用中国人民银行（PBOC）的回购设施借款以购买自身股票。
“More than 20 Chinese listed companies have announced plans to tap special central bank lending for share purchases, according to exchange filings, days after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kicked off the $42 billion funding scheme.” (RTRS)
“据交易所文件显示，在中国人民银行启动420亿美元资金计划后，已有超过20家中国上市公司宣布计划利用该央行特别贷款进行股票回购。”（路透社）
Chinese stocks fading with HSI down nearly -2% while onshore is closer to flat (shprop is up 2%). Copper bouncing +1% alongside the rest of base and oil recovering from its sell-off last week. Dollar modestly higher.
中国股市下跌，恒生指数（HSI）下跌近2%，而A股几乎持平（地产股上涨2%）。铜价上涨1%，与其他基础金属一道反弹，石油则在上周的抛售后有所回升。美元小幅上涨。
Flows last week showed a clear stop into general risk. “Largest weekly net buying in 5 months driven by long buying activity…North America was the most net bought region while EM was the most net sold region driven by selling in China, which saw the largest 2-week net selling in almost 4 years” (PB).
上周的资金流动显示出明显的止损迹象。
“这是五个月来最大的一周净买入，主要由多头买入推动…北美是净买入最多的地区，而新兴市场是净卖出最多的地区，主要由于中国市场的抛售，中国市场经历了近四年来最大规模的两周净卖出。”（PB）
Think last few weeks been all about stopping market participants into the tape at a time where they wanted to exercise caution. With only a few weeks to the election, it feels that the Republican sweep outcome is increasingly being priced…this despite some historic unreliability from betting markets/polls.
过去几周，市场参与者在想采取谨慎态度时，却被迫进入市场。距离大选仅剩几周，市场似乎越来越多地计入共和党大获全胜的可能性…尽管历史上投注市场/民意调查并不完全可靠。
For risk this week it’s relatively quiet on the macro with regional PMIs at the end of the week.
本周的风险相对平静，宏观数据方面，本周末的地区PMI将是关注点。
It will really be about earnings season as we get into the heart of numbers. So far the revisions in SX5E have really been quite awful “We downgrade our SXXP EPS growth forecast to 2% in 2024 (from 6%), and expect 3% growth in 2025 and 4% pa in 2026-2027…Bottom-up consensus expects EPS growth of 10%-11% pa in 2025 and 2026.”
真正的重点将是财报季的到来，目前我们进入了数据的核心。截至目前，SX5E的盈利预期修正情况相当糟糕。“我们将SXXP的2024年每股收益（EPS）增长预期从6%下调至2%，预计2025年增长3%，2026-2027年年均增长4%…自下而上的共识认为2025年和2026年每股收益将年均增长10%-11%。”
The saving grace has been the expansion of the multiples in the US is so large (Russell on 25.5x for next year…highest since 2021) it is allowing for Europe’s multiple expansion to appear quite modest (SX5E at 13.6x looks cheap even with numbers getting cut).
令人感到宽慰的一点是，美国市盈率的扩张幅度非常大（罗素指数明年市盈率为25.5倍…为2021年以来最高水平），这使得欧洲的市盈率扩张显得相对温和（SX5E市盈率为13.6倍，尽管盈利预期下调，该估值看起来依然便宜）。
Sentiment is elevated with fear/greed now flashing extreme greed. Positioning metrics saw Russell non-commercial net length at the highs of the year. SPX positioning is elevated but somewhat offset by a net long among asset managers in the VIX.
市场情绪高涨，恐惧/贪婪指标目前显示极度贪婪。仓位指标显示，罗素指数的非商业净多头仓位达到了年内最高点。标普500指数（SPX）的仓位水平较高，但被资产管理者在波动率指数（VIX）中的净多头仓位部分抵消。
CTA flows in equities are relatively muted with some downside convexity particularly in SX5E. The real supply is in fixed income where we expect substantial supply…models have CTA beginning to go short US bonds from flat. Bond proxies remain acutely vulnerable in equities. Think reflation is the thematic until proven otherwise.
CTA（商品交易顾问）的股票资金流较为平淡，特别是在SX5E中出现了一些下行凸性。真正的供给压力在固定收益领域，我们预计将出现大量供给…模型显示，CTA将开始从中性仓位转为空头美国国债。债券类股票仍然在股市中面临高度脆弱性。认为再通胀是当前的主题，直到被证伪为止。
Market will follow the rotation as longer dated rates reprice. Still watching energy with a continued bid to the call wing even though spot collapsed last week (have you seen US gas prices?). In equities, expiries tend to mark inflections as hedges roll off…felt like the market has ground up into October and from here numbers + election uncertainty will be the key focus.
随着长期利率重新定价，市场将遵循轮动。
我们仍然在关注能源板块，尽管现货价格上周崩盘，但看涨期权仍然有持续的买盘（你注意到美国的天然气价格了吗？）。在股票市场中，期权到期通常标志着拐点，因为对冲仓位逐渐平仓…感觉市场在进入10月后有所上升，从现在起，财报数据和选举的不确定性将成为焦点。
Side-note: The persistent macro trend seems to be fiscal expansion. Gold vs 30yr rates as a ratio has been a one directional trade since the start of the pandemic. Gold vs WN1 (First CME US ULTRA Long Term Bond Future).
附注：持续的宏观趋势似乎是财政扩张。自疫情开始以来，黄金与30年期国债收益率的比率一直是单向交易。黄金与WN1（芝加哥商品交易所首个超长期美国国债期货）的比值也是如此。
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