MINISO Group
(9896 HK)
24Q3點評：全球門店數超7400家，
毛利率同比提升3.1pct創新高
24Q3E results takeaways: more than 7,400 stores worldwide; gross margin reaches new high
BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
事件：
根據11月29日公告，公司2024年第三季度整體收入45.2億元，較去年同期同比增長19.3%；分地區來看，三季度公司國內收入27.1億元，同比增長8.7%；海外收入18.1億元，同比增長39.8%。
中國大陸地區分渠道來看，2024年前三季度名創優品綫下門店實現營收64.5億元，同比增加12%； TOPTOY實現營收7億元，同比增加43%；其他渠道營收實現0.07億元，同比減少83%。海外地區，名創優品實現營收45.4億元，同比大幅增長41%。門店網絡的擴張來看，截止2024年三季度，公司名創優品門店共計7186家，其中中國環比增長135家，共計4250家；海外環比增長183家，達2936家；TOPTOY門店數量爲234家，同比增長39家。
24Q3E: revenue up 19.3% yoy to RMB4.52bn; new gross margin record at 44.9%
Key metrics: Miniso released unaudited results for 24Q3E and 24M9E on 29 Nov:
- Revenue arrived at RMB4.52bn, up 19.3% yoy: with China revenue up 8.7% yoy to RMB2.71bn; and international revenue growing 39.8% yoy to RMB1.81bn.
- Gross margin expanded 3.1ppt yoy to 44.9%, marking a new high.
Channel breakdown for 24M9E revenue:
-Mainland of China:
-Miniso offline stores: RMB6.45bn revenue, up 12% yoy.
-TOP TOY: revenue rose 43% yoy to RMB700m.
-Other channels: revenue came in at RMB7m, down 83% yoy.
-International: Miniso revenue came to RMB4.54bn, a yoy spike of 41%.
Store network expansion: the company now has 7,420 stores worldwide in total as of 24Q3, including:
-Miniso brand stores: 7,186 worldwide:
-China: it added 135 qoq to 4,250;
-International: it added 183 stores qoq to 2,936.
-TOP TOY: 39 were added yoy to reach 234.
點評：
名創優品：國內門店穩步擴張，海外直營保持高增。國內業務增速穩健。2024年三季度名創優品國內綫下門店GMV同比增長10.1%，主要係平均門店數量同比增長14.7%。2024Q3名創優品平均單店收入同比下降中個位數，主要係客單量下降影響。海外業務保持高增。2024年三季度海外門店貢獻營收18.1億元，同比增長39.8%，海外收入貢獻占比由去年的32%提升至今年的37%。從門店擴張來看，國內門店穩步擴張，海外代理市場加速拓店。2024年三季度名創優品季度環比淨增318家新店，與去年同期基本持平。2024年三季度，海外門店環比淨增183家，其中代理門店環比增速明顯快於直營店。截止2024年9月30日，名創優品海外共計2936家綫下門店，包括直營店422家以及2514家代理門店。從單店層面看，直營與代理門店本季度海外單店銷售增長率均保持高單位數增長。本季度首家全球級MINISO LAND一號店在上海開業，全球最大3000平門店落地印尼雅加達Central Park。哈利波特聯名産品全球全渠道上綫，創造多個銷售記錄。
China business stable; international revenues continued to flourish
Store expansion: Miniso’s China offline stores saw gross merchandise value (GMV) rise 10.1% yoy in 24Q3E, mainly because of a 14.7% yoy rise in store numbers on average. Average per-store revenue fell by a single digit yoy, due mainly to lower customer orders.
International market: Miniso’s foreign market continued to enjoy sharp growth. For 24Q3E, stores abroad contributed RMB1.81bn in revenue, up 39.8% yoy. Overseas contributions to total revenue increased from 32% last year to 37% this year.
China market: Miniso has steadily increased its domestic stores, while its foreign agency markets have stepped up store expansions. For 24Q3E, the company added 318 stores qoq (unchanged from a year ago).
Agency store ramp-up: international store numbers increased by 183 qoq, with agency stores growing significantly faster than directly operated stores. The company had 2,936 offline stores abroad as of 30 Sep 2024: 422 directly operated stores and 2,514 agency stores. Both directly operated and agency stores maintained high single-digit per-store sales growth in 24Q3E.
Milestone projects: mega store openings; Harry Potter co-branded products
The company opened its Miniso Land Global Flagship Store in Shanghai in Q3. Spotlighting the company’s efforts to ramp up its channel upgrade in China as well as overseas, the store features its very first “scenario-based” IP collection, targeting young consumers through exclusive IPs that include Harry Potter, Sanrio, Disney and Chiikawa. Miniso also opened its largest-ever store (encompassing 3,000 sqm), located at Jakarta’s Central Park Mall in Indonesia. Featuring a Dream Castle Park. the store offers distinct IP zones for Harry Potter, Sanrio and Disney fans. In addition, Miniso launched Harry Potter co-branded products across all channels around the world, setting multiple sales records.
TOP TOY：收入端維持高增速，毛利率創造新高。2024年第三季度營收達2.72億元，同比增長50.4%，持續第四個季度盈利，IP策略有效運營，TOP TOY毛利率有中高個位數提升。我們認爲，隨著公司進一步優化産品結構，海外業務有序鋪開，未來利潤率有望進一步提升。門店擴張來看，2024前三季度top toy新開店86家，總門店數達到234家，同比增加112家。
TOP TOY: revenue growth remains strong; gross margin reaches new high
TOP TOY achieved revenue of RMB272m in 24Q3E, up 50.4% yoy, marking a 4th straight quarter of profitability. Gross margin increased by a mid-to-high single-digit as Miniso ramped up its IP product strategy. We expect margins will increase further as Miniso optimizes its product structure and expands its foreign business. In terms of store expansion, TOP TOY opened 86 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, bringing its total number of stores to 234, an increase of 112 stores yoy.
IP戰略深化+聚焦核心品類，提升品牌心智。公司2024Q3毛利率爲44.9%，較去年同期上升3.1pct，創歷史新高。調整後淨利潤達6.9億元，同比增長6.9%，主要係海外收入貢獻占比由去年的32%提升至今年的37%。隨著IP策略的有效執行，各業務版塊的毛利率均有所改善，尤其是MINISO海外和TOP TOY毛利率有中高個位數提升。根據業績會管理層發言，未來公司將：1）堅持IP策略，細化、標簽化IP 産品的投放。2）把二次元、搪膠毛絨、寵物品類作爲明年重要品類。
Building brand mindshare through IP-strong strategy and category focus
Miniso set a fresh high in 24Q3E with a total gross margin of 44.9%, up 3.1ppt yoy. Adjusted net profit reached RMB690m, up 6.9% yoy, largely because overseas revenue contributions increased to 37%. Gross margins improved across all business segments thanks to the company’s IP enrichment strategy. In particular, Miniso’s overseas business and TOP TOY saw increases in the mid-to-high single digits. At Miniso’s earnings conference, management noted the company will keep driving an IP-enrichment strategy, working to keep refining and defining product launches and placements. It also plans to focus on three key categories next year: the so-called two-dimensional genre products for anime fans; vinyl plush dolls; and pet products.
9月公司收購永輝超市29.4%股權，交易進度符合預期。公司目前已完成勾股協議中前兩部分，預計將於2025年上半年完成交易。本次交易對價預計不超過40%將來源於自有資金。我們認爲，收購完成後，將推動公司品質零售和興趣消費板塊的拓展，貢獻業績增量。
Yonghui Superstores acquisition: on track
Miniso entered into share purchase agreements in September 2024 to acquire a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores for a total cash consideration of approximately RMB6.3bn.
To date, Miniso has completed the first two stages of the transaction and expects to close the transaction in 25H1E. The company expects that no more than 40% of the transaction price will come from its own funds. We believe that this acquisition, once completed, will aid Miniso’s ability to tap important trends in quality retailing and interest-driven consumption, and could contribute to incremental profits.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
盈利預測與投資建議：基於宏觀整體消費潜力逐步釋放，以及公司海外布局全面提速和品牌戰略升級，有望實現營收利潤雙增長，我們預計2024公司整體營收爲173億元，調整後淨利潤爲28億元。維持“買入”評級。
Forecast and risks
Given Miniso’s efforts to accelerate its overseas buildout and upgrade its brand strategy, we expect the company to enjoy growth in both revenue and profit as macro consumption gradually improves. We forecast FY24E revenue will arrive at RMB17.3bn and adjusted net profit at RMB2.8bn. We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示：1. 消費恢復緩慢；2. 擴店不及預期；3. 海外經營風險
Risks include: a slow consumption recovery; weaker-than-expected store expansion; and foreign market operational risks.
Email: research@tfisec.com
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