周大福:一口價產品增長強勁,佔比提升

文摘   2024-12-17 19:18   广东  

周大福

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 

(1929 HK)


一口價產品增長強勁,佔比提升 

FY25H1E: fixed-price product revenue grew strongly and helped expand gross margin; 

store branding hones edge


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈FY25H1財報

FY25H1收入394.1億港元同減20.4%,淨利25.3億同減44.4%; 利潤減少系期內國際金價大幅波動,以致重估黃金借貸合約產生虧損,而去年同期則錄得黃金借貸重估收益。FY25H1公司OP(運營利潤)67.8億港元,同增4%; OPM17.2%同增4pct,毛利率31.4%同增6.5pct,受益金價上漲及公司定價黃金產品貢獻增多。公司宣派中期股息每股0.20港元,中期派息率78.9%為近五年最高。


FY25H1E results: net profit down 44.4% yoy due to gold loan revaluations

Key metrics: Chow Tai Fook (CTF) released unaudited results for FY25H1E (half-year ended September 2024) on 3 Dec. Revenue came in at HKD39.41bn, down 20.4% yoy; while operating profit rose 4% yoy to HKD6.78bn and net profit slipped 44.4% yoy to HKD2.53bn.


DPS: the company declared an interim dividend of HKD0.20 per share, with the highest interim dividend yield in 5 years at 78.9%.


Profitability:

· Margins: operating profit margin improved 4ppt yoy to 17.2%. Gross margin grew 6.5ppt yoy to 31.4% on a rise in gold prices and a bigger contribution from fixed-price gold products.

· Net profit: net profit came to HKD2.53bn in FY25H1E, down 44.4% yoy, as sharp fluctuations in international gold prices resulted in losses from revaluations of gold loan contracts (vs gains from revaluations a year ago).


分地區看,中國內地/中國香港、中國澳門及其他市場分別營收330.2/63.8億港元,分別同比-18.8%/-27.9%,營收佔比83.8%/16.2%。中國內地零售/批發銷額分別為138.4/191.9億港元,分別同比-21.9%/16.4%。


分產品看,珠寶鑲嵌、鉑金及K金首飾營收54.3億港元同比-20%;黃金產品(計價)營收261.3億港元同比-29.7%;黃金產品(定價)營收46.5億港元同比+117.9%;鍾表營收22億港元同比-12.5%;黃金產品整體營收同減21.6%,營收佔比79.4%。


同店銷售,中國內地(直營)/中國內地(加盟)同店銷額分別同比-25.4%/-19.6%,同店銷量分別同比-34.9%/-31.8%;


分地區看,1)中國內地,黃金產品/珠寶鑲嵌首飾同店ASP分別增長至6300/8900港元,FY24同期分別為5500/8000港元; 同店銷額/銷量整體分別同比-25.4%/-34.9%,25Q2相比Q1降幅收窄。

2)其他地區市場,黃金產品/珠寶鑲嵌首飾同店ASP分別為9200/15900港元,FY24同期分別為8600/16900港元; 同店銷額/銷量整體分別同比-30.8%/-36.1%。


截至2024年9月30日,中國內地零售點共計7205個,港澳臺零售點分別有67/18/20個,境外零售點共計36個。


Market regions: turnover down at home and abroad

· Revenue: mainland of China brought in HKD33.02bn, down 18.8% yoy, accounting for 83.8% of total revenue. Revenue from the non-mainland markets (Hong Kong, Macau and foreign markets) amounted to HKD6.38bn, down 27.9% yoy, contributing 16.2% to total revenue.

· Sales: retail sales in mainland of China came to HKD13.84bn, down 21.9% yoy; wholesale sales contributed HKD19.19bn, down 16.4% yoy.

Product categories:

Gold products revenue fell 21.6% yoy in FY25H1E, and accounted for 79.4% of total revenue. A breakdown shows:

· Inlaid, platinum and K-gold jewelry: HKD5.43bn, down 20% yoy

· Gold products (by weight): HKD26.13bn, down 29.7% yoy

· Gold products (fixed-price): HKD4.65bn, up 117.9% yoy

· Watches: HKD2.2bn, down 12.5% yoy.

Same-store sales: for the company’s direct sales in mainland of China, same-store sales (SSS) value was down 25.4% yoy in FY25H1E, while SSS volume shrank 34.9%. For franchises, SSS value slipped 19.6% yoy, while SSS volume fell 31.8% yoy.


· Mainland of China: same-store ASP of gold products increased to HKD6,300, (vs HKD5,500 in FY24H1). For inlaid jewelry, the figure rose to HKD8,900 (FY24H1: HKD8,000). As noted above, total SSS value and volume both fell in mainland of China, but their declines narrowed in FY25Q2E vs FYQ1.


· Non-mainland markets: same-store ASP of gold products increased to HKD9,200 (HKD8,600 in FY24H1). For inlaid jewelry, the figure came to HKD15,900 (vs HKD16,900 in FY24H1). Total SSS value in these markets decreased 30.8% yoy, while SSS volume fell 36.1% yoy.


Store network: selective store openings; streamlining underperforming outlets

CTF continued to optimize its retail network through selective store openings and by streamlining underperforming stores. As of 30 September 2024, it had a combined store network of 7,346 retail outlets.

· Mainland of China: 7,205

· Hong Kong: 67

· Macao: 18

· Taiwan: 20

· Overseas: 36.


堅定執行五大策略方針,聚焦品牌轉型

公司堅定不移持續執行五大策略方針——品牌轉型、優化產品、加速數位化進程、提升營運效率以及強化人才培育,為提升長期競爭力奠定基礎。

1)品牌轉型取得積極進展:香港中環推出首間全新概念店; 標誌性傳福系列自推出以來零售值超15億港元;


2)持續優化產品和定價策略:推出不同定位的系列產品; 定價類黃金產品保持強勁銷售,對中國內地黃金產品零售值貢獻同比增長一倍至14.2%;


3)持續降本增效:毛利率同增6.5pct;經營獲利率同增4pct;銷售及行政開支同減2.8%;


4)保護和傳承中華優秀文化:推出五年期「古往金來」中國黃金工藝與文化傳承專案; 資助1000萬港元促進具有相關社會意義的活動,提升年輕一代對中國黃金藝術的鑒賞力。


Strategic focus: core framework and brand restructure

The company adheres to five core strategies: brand transformation; product optimization; acceleration of its digitalization progress; improving operational efficiency and strengthening talent development; and laying the foundation to build long-term competitiveness.


Brand transformation: the company made significant progress in this respect, including the unveiling of a  pivotal new concept store at Central, Hong Kong on 10 Sep 2024. The new store occupies 2,880 sq ft of prime retail space on one of Hong Kong’s most iconic streets and is designed to provide an immersive retail experience in celebrating Chinese heritage and design. In addition, the company’s latest signature series – the CTF Rouge Collection – was launched on 18 April to celebrate its 95th anniversary and has since exceeded HKD1.5bn in retail sales.


Optimizing product and pricing strategies: CTF launched various product series with differentiated positioning. And its fixed-price gold products maintained strong sales, with its gold products in mainland of China doubling their retail value contribution to 14.2%.


Lowering costs and raising efficiencies: gross margin increased 6.5ppt yoy in FY25H1E, while operating profit margin increased 4ppt yoy. In addition, sales and administrative expenses fell 2.8% yoy.


Perpetuating Chinese gold artistry: the company launched the Chinese Gold Craftsmanship Heritage Education Program on 3 Oct 2024 in collaboration with the Hong Kong Palace Museum, which houses a renowned collection of ancient Chinese gold artefacts. CTF’s HKD10m sponsorship allows the museum to run a 5-year program dedicated to showcasing the artistic and technical achievements of Chinese goldsmithing, as well as its rich heritage and cultural significance. Designed to raise public awareness of Chinese history, culture and art, especially among the younger generation, the program highlights CTF’s commitment to showcasing the beauty of Chinese culture to the world through its jewelry.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議:調整盈利預測,維持買入評級

基於FY25H1業績表現,及FY25業績較大受到重估黃金借貸合約產生虧損; 展望FY26-27公司一口價佔比或繼續提升,帶動毛利率增長; 我們下調FY25利潤預期,上調FY26-27利潤預期;我們維持收入預測,預計FY25-27公司收入分別為913/979/1060億港元; 歸母凈利分別為56/69/77億港元(原值為58/61/68億港元; EPS分別為0.56/0.69/0.77港元(原值為0.58/0.61/0.68港元; PE分別為12X/10X/9X。


Valuation and risks

We have adjusted our profit forecasts, lowering our estimates for FY25E to factor in the performance drag in FY25H1 by revaluations of gold loan contracts, but raising our numbers for FY26/27E as the company’s fixed-price product proportion could continue to expand, which would help drive growth in gross margin. We maintain our FY25/26/27E revenue forecasts at HKD91.3bn/97.9bn/106bn. We now expect net profit of HKD5.6bn/ 6.9bn/7.7bn (previously HKD5.8bn/6.1bn/6.8bn), which implies EPS of HKD0.56/ 0.69/0.77 (previously HKD0.58/0.61/0.68), corresponding to PEs of 12x/10x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:品牌發展不及預期,核心高管流失,毛利率下滑等。


Risks include: weaker-than-expected brand development; loss of core executives; and a gross margin decline.




Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

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