天立國際控股:堅持高品質多元發展

文摘   2024-12-12 19:28   广东  

Tianli International Holdings

(1773 HK)


堅持高品質多元發展


FY24E profit up 56%: Tianli delivers sound academic outcomes through 

a diverse growth profile

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司FY24收入33億人民幣同增44%,經調凈利5.8億同增56%;

FY24公司綜合教育服務收入17.4億人民幣,同增43%; 產品銷售9.2億元,同增66%; 綜合後勤服務6億,同增23%; 管理及特許經營費0.6億,同增53%。

每股股息8.3分,分紅率30%;

淨資產收益率24.3%,同增8.5pct

現金及現金等價物13.58億元,經營性現金凈流入8.27億元,

資本開支4.1億同減32%。


FY24E revenue rose 44% to RMB3.32bn; adjusted net profit up 56% to RMB577m

Tianli International released unaudited FY24E (fiscal year ended August 2024) results on 25 Nov, with the following key metrics:

-Revenue: total revenue rose 44% to RMB3.32bn, with comprehensive educational services contributing RMB1.74bn, up 43%, including RMB919m from product sales (up 66%) and RMB597m from comprehensive logistics services (up 23%).

-Profit: adjusted net profit came to RMB577m, up 56%; this indicates a 24.3% return on net assets, up 8.5ppt.

-Expenses: administrative and franchise expenses amounted to RMB60m, up 53%.

-DPS: the company set dividend per share at RMB8.25cents, a payout ratio of 30%.

-Cash and equivalents amounted to RMB1.36bn; including RMB827m net cash inflows from operating activities;

-Capex came to RMB410m in FY24, down 32%.


截至2024年11月,集團校網覆蓋18個省市,為58所學校13萬在校生提供綜合教育服務。

2024年升學成績亮點

全球50強名校錄取272人,較2023年127人增加114%; 9人升入全球QS前十頂級名校,其中2人升入QS排名第二的劍橋大學; 1人升入QS排名第六的帝國理工學院; 6人升入QS排名第九的倫敦大學學院。

清華美院17人專業綜合素養過線,最終錄取5人,創歷史新高。


川內成熟校區一本上線率平均55%,本科上線率平均90%,均遠超四川平均水準。集團成長期學校實現低進高出,高進優出,平均一本上線率提升約20%,本科上線率提升約30%。


Scholastic achievements: 114% rise in admissions to top 50 universities

School network: Tianli’s network of 58 schools covers 18 provinces and cities as of November 2024, and provides a full range of educational services to 130,000 students.

2024 cohort: admissions to top-tier global universities

-272 Tianli students gained admittance to the world’s top 50 universities, up 114% from the 127 in 2023;

-9 entered the world’s top 10 universities (based on QS rankings), including 2 to University of Cambridge, which ranks #2 by Quacquarelli Symonds, a tertiary education data provider;

-1 was admitted to Imperial College London, ranked 6th by QS;

-6 were admitted to University College London, ranked 9th by QS.

Tsinghua Arts Academy:

-17 Tianli students fulfilled comprehensive professional-standard entry criteria to Tsinghua University’s Academy of Arts & Design; and

-5 of them gained entry to the academy, a historical record.

Gaokao:

-90% of Tianli’s Gaokao candidates from established schools in Sichuan met entry requirements to Chinese universities; and

-55% fulfilled entry requirements to first-tier Chinese universities; both of these rates were far above the Sichuan average.

Exam results uptrend: Tianli schools delivered relatively high actual admission rates relative to its admission criteria rate, where its average admission rate to top-tier universities increased about 20%, while admissions to undergraduate programs increased about 30%.


學科競賽成績突出

本學年競賽強基取得了3金、1銀、4銅、6個省隊、26個省一等獎優異成績; 1人入選國家集訓隊並保送清北; 強基計劃再獲突破,10位天立學子在強基計劃審核中獲得“優秀”,6位獲強基計劃錄取。


Academic competitions: Tianli students cinched the following wins during the current academic year:

-3 golds, 1 silver, 4 bronzes, 6 provincial team prizes and 26 provincial first prizes;

-1 student was selected to join the national team and fast-tracked for admission to Tsinghua or Peking University.


Strong Foundation Program: 10 Tianli students were awarded the Excellent grade in the pilot national Strong Foundation Program, and a new batch of 6 Tianli students has since gained admittance to it. The program caters to high-performing high school students with different skillsets.


採取措施優化營運結構

包括自一體化學校獨立出擁有獨立運營牌照的高中,至FY24天立已成功自一體化學校獨立出共7所擁有獨立運營牌照高中,該等高中的財務業績已併入天立的綜合財務報表。


逐步提高現有高中招生規模

於2024年秋季學期初,公司學校網路擁有53,900名高中生,較2023年秋季36,708名高中生人數增加約46.8%。


School operations: optimizing the business mix to increase efficiencies

Independent high schools: to improve its business operating framework, Tianli separated the category of high schools with independent operating licenses from its category of integrated schools. It effectively carved out seven high schools with independent operating licenses in FY24 and went on to incorporate their financials into its consolidated financial statement.


High school enrollments increase: at the beginning of the 2024 fall semester, Tianli’s enrollments counted 53,900 high school students, up by about 46.8% from the 36,708 a year ago.


研學業務顯著增長

天立旗下立行研學公司始終秉承「行知天下,立已達人」的理念,致力於為廣大學子提供優質、創新的立行研學游研學體驗。2024學年立行研學的服務人次超11萬人大關。在全面覆蓋自營學校的同時,為集團外30多所學校共計1.5萬人次提供游研學服務。


Study tours: on-the-ground study tours are a thriving business

Under a corporate philosophy of, “Travel to know the world; reach out to others to gain personal growth”, Tianli subsidiary Lixing Study Tours aims to provide innovative premium educational travel experiences to mainstream students. The company hosted more than 110,000 clients during the 2024 academic year. Its client market of 15,000 students are from Tianli schools as well as more than 30 non-Tianli schools.


科技賦能 實力認證

2024年啟鳴達人在集團內十余所學校開始試點運營“AI智習室”業務。5月在宜賓天立學校試點高考衝刺營,36個參訓學生平均提分36分。10月與北京四中呼和浩特分校合作成立高三卓越班,以A1學伴精準提分方案衝刺2025年高考,正式開啟AI創新教育對外推廣步伐。


展望未來,天立將通過做大做強以營利性高中為主業務,為學生提供綜合運營服務,包括但不限於:在線校園商城、後勤綜合服務、藝體升學指導、國際教育、出國留學諮詢及遊學等其他增值服務,促進學生全面發展。


AI-learning collaboration: use of advanced tech raises student scores

-Tianli’s wholly-owned subsidiary Sichuan Qiming Daren launched the pilot AI Smart Study Room at more than 10 Tianli schools in 2024.

-In May, it piloted the fast-track college entrance exam camp at Yibin Tianli School, which raised by 36 points the average score of the 36 participating students.

-In October, it tied up with Beijing No.4 Middle School in Hohhot to establish an elite senior high school class that fast-tracks learning for the 2025 college entrance exam. The A1 student partner initiative deploys a precision score improvement system and is the company’s first step in innovative AI-enabled education in collaboration with an industry partner.




投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議:

維持盈利預測,維持買入評級

我們預計公司FY25-27年收入分別為46億人民幣、64億人民幣、88億人民幣; 調後凈利分別為8億人民幣、11億人民幣、14億人民幣; EPS分別為0.37元人民幣、0.5元人民幣、0.66元人民幣; PE分別為11X、8X、6X。


Valuation and risks

Outlook: Tianli plans to provide comprehensive services to its students by expanding and strengthening its for-profit high school business, including the online campus mall, full range of logistics services, arts and sports admission institution exam coaching, international education, study abroad consultations, study tours and other value-added services to guide growth of well-rounded students.


Forecast: we forecast revenue will arrive at RMB4.6bn/6.4bn/8.8bn in FY25/26/27E; with adjusted net profit at RMB800m/1.1bn/1.4bn. This implies EPS of RMB0.37/0.50/0.66 and corresponds to PE of 11x/8x/6x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:市場競爭激勵,核心高管流失,收入不及預期。


Risks include: impact of market competition stimulus; loss of core executives; and lower-than-expected revenues.




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文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。


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