京東集團-SW: 24Q3業績點評：盈利端改善明顯，關注後續國補催化

投資要點/Investment Thesis

事件：北京時間2024年11月14日，京東集團（9618.SW）發佈2024年第三季度業績報告。2024年第三季度，公司實現營業收入2604億元，同比增長5.1%；其中，商品收入2046億元，同比增長4.8%；服務收入558億元，同比增長6.5%。從費用端來看，2024年第三季度研發/銷售/管理/履約費用率分別為1.7%/3.8%/0.9%/6.3%，23年同期為1.5%/ 3.2%/1.0%/6.1%，分別變化+0.2/+0.6/-0.1/+0.2pct。

利潤端表現超預期：2024年第三季度Non-GAAP歸屬於公司普通股股東淨利潤為132億元，同比增長23.9%，Non-GAAP歸屬於公司普通股股東淨利潤率保持高水平實現5.1%，同比優化0.8pct。

公司加碼股東回報，啟動50億美元回購計劃：年初至2024年9月30日期間，公司回購總額約為36億美元，回購的股份總數約為其截至2023年12月31日流通在外普通股的8.1%。公司已充分使用於2024年3月公佈的30億美元回購計劃下授權回購的金額，並於2024年8月公佈新的股份回購計劃，計劃在2027年8月底前的36個月回購價值最高達50億美元的股份。

運營數據方面，公司受益於“以舊換新”，雙十一表現亮眼。2024年三季度，受益於“以舊換新”舉措，京東平臺3C家電等核心優勢品類收入同比增速提升，平臺季度活躍用戶數、用戶購物頻次連續三個季度保持同比雙位數增長。京東11.11購物用戶數同比增長超20%。

24Q3E non-GAAP net profit rose 24% yoy; USD5bn share buyback plan 

Key metrics: JD.com released unaudited 24Q3E results on 14 Nov:

•Revenue arrived at RMB260.4bn, up 5.1% yoy, comprising:

-Merchandise revenue at RMB204.6bn, up 4.8% yoy;

-Services revenue at RMB55.8bn, up 6.5% yoy. 

•Expense ratios were: 

-R&D 1.7% (vs 1.5% a year ago, up 0.2ppt)

-Sales 3.8% (vs 3.2%, up 0.6ppt)

-Administrative 0.9% (vs 1.0%, down 0.1ppt) 

-Fulfillment 6.3% (vs 6.1%, up 0.2ppt). 

•Profit outperformed expectation: non-GAAP net profit came to RMB13.2bn in 24Q3E, a yoy increase of 23.9%, while non-GAAP net margin hovered high at 5.1% as it ticked up 0.8ppt yoy.

USD5bn buyback plan: JD bumped up shareholder returns with a new plan:

•January to September 2024: JD had fully implemented its earlier USD3bn repurchase plan announced back in March 2024, buying back a total of USD3.6bn in shares over the 9-month period, equivalent to about 8.1% of common shares outstanding (as of 31 Dec 2023). 

•September 2024 to August 2027: the company went on to announce a new plan in August 2024 to buy back up to USD5bn of shares in the 36 months to August 2027.

Singles’ Day sales: benefiting from China’s trade-in subsidy initiative, JD’s sales swelled at the online Double-11 promotions in November with revenue growing yoy in key beneficiary categories like computer, communications and consumer equipment (3C) and home appliances in 24Q3 on JD.com. Meanwhile, active user numbers and user shopping frequency in Q3E both grew at a double-digit yoy for three straight quarters. The total number of users shopping on the JD.com platform increased more than 20% yoy during Double-11.

京東零售：大商超品類保持高速增長態勢，日百、服飾品類有望成為第二增長曲線

2024年第三季度，京東零售收入達2250億元，同比增長6.1%，略高於市場預期；經營利潤達116.08億元，同比增加5.5%，表現好於市場預期。

分品類來看，1）電子產品及家用電器品類收入1225.60億元，同比增長2.7%。三季度，全國20餘地以舊換新政府補貼活動陸續上線京東，公司憑藉“送、裝、拆、收”一體化服務構建獨特競爭力，3C家電等核心優勢品類收入同比增速提升。我們認為，隨著以舊換新、國家補貼等逐漸釋放存量需求，公司帶電品類有望持續獲取市場份額。2）日用百貨品類收入820.53億元，同比提升8.0%，收入增速連續三個季度超行業平均水平。商家生態建設持續投入，帶動三方商家訂單快速增長。2024年第三季度，公司第三方商家成交用戶同比增長超20%，訂單量同比增長超30%。公司“春曉計劃”推出“三大星級規則升級”等15項新舉措，為商家提供流量扶持及廣告金補貼。

運營方面，1）數實融合助推新質生產力。三季度，公司在自營商品SKU超過1000萬基礎上，存貨週轉天數繼續保持30天的全球領先水平。截至三季度，使用京東物流配送的第三方商家訂單接近5億。我們認為，隨著京東物流發佈搭載感知大模型的物流無人車技術，第六代智能配送車將規模化佈局，有望進一步提升用戶體驗。2）多品類均衡發展。三季度，公司超市和服裝品類收入取得同比雙位數增長。公司宣佈全面佈局服飾品類，加大品類投入，目標建立“買服裝，上京東”的用戶心智。並對京東超市合作的品牌加大資源傾斜力度，京東超市在京東域內的內容營銷資源佔比整體份額將超過30％，在京東域外的市場營銷投入也將增加30％。我們認為，隨著集團加大投入，用戶心智不斷成熟或驅動訂單量、活躍用戶數增長，從而實現業績正循環。

Retail: supermarket boom; daily necessities, apparel turning secondary drivers

Key metrics: JD.com generated retail revenue of RMB225bn in 24Q3E, up 6.1% yoy, a tad better than the market had expected, while operating profit was also better than expected at RMB11.61bn, up 5.5% yoy. A breakdown shows: 

General and household appliances: revenue from this category grew 2.7% yoy to RMB122.56bn in the quarter as more than 20 provinces and cities across China joined the government’s trade-in subsidy campaign on JD.com. The company stepped up competitive differentiation with integrated services encompassing deliveries, installations, disassembly and collections, which drove yoy revenue growth in core beneficiary categories like 3C and home appliances. As the trade-in subsidy campaign, other national subsidies and other factors gradually release pent-up demand, we believe JD’s electronic appliance categories will continue to gain market share. 

Daily necessities: revenue from daily necessities grew 8.0% yoy to RMB82.05bn in 24Q3E and the uptrend outperformed the industry average three quarters in a row. JD’s continual investments to build up the merchant ecosystem spurred rapid growth in third-party (3P) merchant orders and 3P merchant transactional users increased over 20% yoy and order volumes expanded more than 30% yoy. The Spring Dawn program spawned 15 new initiatives, such as Three Premium Upgrades, where merchants benefited from user traffic support and advertising subsidies.

Operational trends: 

•O2O integration enhanced quality and productivity: JD maintained its edge in inventory turnover days at a world-leading cycle of 30 days in Q3E, based on over 10m direct-sales merchandise SKUs. 3P merchants using JD Logistics for deliveries generated close to 500m orders. We expect user experience will get a further boost when JD rolls out its driverless logistics vehicles equipped with large language model perceptivity, particularly when the sixth-generation vehicle network reaches scale deployment.

•Different businesses developing in step: the company’s supermarket and apparel categories expanded their revenues by double-digits yoy in Q3E:

-Apparel: comprehensive plans matched by plowing investments into the apparel business are geared toward creating user awareness that one buys clothes on JD.com. 

-Supermarkets: the division expanded resource allocations for its brand partners. JD Supermarkets’ share of total JD content marketing resources exceeds 30%, while marketing investments from outside the JD domain have increased 30%. 

-Outlook: we believe that as JD adds investments into these areas, rising user awareness will drive growth in order volumes and active user numbers, thereby kickstarting their profit cycles.

京東物流：經營利潤率遠超市場預期，供應鏈保持全球領先優勢

2024年三季度，京東物流收入達444億元，同比增長6.6%；經營利潤為20.86億元，遠超市場預期的12.65億元。2024年三季度，1）國內方面，京東物流與淘天集團達成合作，京東物流將全面接入淘寶天貓平臺。雙方對接系統已於2024年10月中旬基本完成。2）國外方面，京東物流進一步擴大海外供應鏈網絡佈局，分別在美國、馬來西亞新開自營海外倉。此外，京東物流持續升級出海戰略——“全球織網計劃”，至2025年底全球自營海外倉面積將實現超100%增長，同時進一步佈局建設保稅倉、直郵倉。我們認為，隨著公司全球供應鏈網絡的完善，以一站式服務助力中國品牌出海，外部一體化供應鏈客戶數量或穩步提升。

Logistics: OPM far above market expectations; retains supply chain global edge

JD Logistics generated revenue of RMB44.4bn in 24Q3E, up 6.6% yoy, while operating profit came to RMB2.09bn, far better than the RMB1.27bn that the market had projected. We look at Q3 performance market by market:

•China market: JD Logistics tied up with Taobao and Tmall to gain full access to the platforms and the linkage of their collective systems is more or less completed as of mid-October 2024. 

•International markets: JD Logistics built out its foreign supply chain network and opened new directly-run warehouses in the US and Malaysia. The strategic upgrade resulted in its Global Chain Network. By the end of 2025, its directly-operated international warehouses is set to increase in area by more than 100%, and it has plans to construct bonded warehouses and direct mail warehouses. As JD improves its global supply chain network and helps Chinese brands expand into the global market through one-stop-shop services, we believe the number of its external integrated supply chain customers will rise steadily.

投資建議/Investment Ideas