JD Health International
(6618 HK)
24Q3點評：線上醫保有序推進，經營利潤保持三位數增長
24Q3E review: online medical insurance gains traction; operating profit maintains triple-digit growth
BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
事件：北京時間11月14日，京東健康（06618.HK）發佈2024年三季度業績報告。公司2024年第三季度實現營業收入133.02億元，較去年同期115.85億元同比增長14.8%。第三季度經營利潤5.52億元，同比增長216.0%，Non-IFRS經營利潤達到8.62億元，同比增長15.7%。
運營數據：2024年第三季度期內，京東健康推進服務模式創新，在廣州、深圳、成都等10個城市陸續開通醫保個賬線上支付服務。截至2024年9月30日，公司已經在12個城市提供線上醫保結算服務，累計接入醫保定點零售藥店近2000家，覆蓋人口過億。
點評：
收入穩步增長，經營利潤保持三位數增長。2024年第三季度，公司實現營業收入133.02億元，同比增長14.8%；經營利潤達5.52億元，同比增長216.0%，經營利潤率為4.1%，同比提升2.6pct。我們認為，隨著用戶對健康生活的追求和對醫療健康的關注度不斷提高，用戶健康消費需求有望持續釋放。
24Q3E: stable revenue growth trend and triple-digit operating profit growth
Key metrics: JD Health (JDH) reported unaudited results for 24Q3E recently:
•Revenue was RMB13.30bn, up 14.8% from RMB11.59bn a year ago;
•Operating profit came to RMB552m, up 216.0% yoy; with non-IFRS operating profit at RMB862m, up 15.7% yoy;
•Operating margin was 4.1%, up 2.6ppt yoy.
Operations: in 24Q3, JDH’s innovative service model saw successive launches of online payment services for personal health insurance accounts in 10 cities, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu. As of 30 Sep 2024, its online health insurance payment services are available in 12 cities, whose total population of more than 100m now has access to nearly 2,000 designated retail pharmacies for health insurance.
Outlook: we expect health consumption demand will continue to drive incremental growth at JDH as consumers become increasingly aware of health and medical care in pursuit of healthy living.
線上醫保陸續接入，集團市佔率有望持續提升。2024年第三季度期內，京東健康在廣州、深圳、成都等10個城市陸續開通醫保個賬線上支付服務。截至2024年9月30日，公司已經在12個城市提供線上醫保結算服務，累計接入醫保定點零售藥店近2000家，覆蓋人口過億。截至2024年6月30日，公司年度活躍用戶數達1.81億，佔中國互聯網醫療用戶規模的近50%。我們認為，在消費者健康意識提升的大背景下，隨著線上醫保穩步推進，集團用戶滲透率有望持續提升。
Better online health insurance access could expand company’s market share
Online payments: JDH launched online payments for personal health insurance accounts successively in 10 cities in 24Q3, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu. Its online payments for health insurance services are available in 12 cities as of 30 Sep 2024 and the total population of more than 100m people now has access to nearly 2,000 designated retail pharmacies for health insurance.
Outlook: JDH’s annual active users reached 181m as of 30 Jun 2024, accounting for nearly half of China’s online health-care consumers. We expect JDH’s user penetration will continue to rise amid rising consumer health awareness and increasing traction of online medical insurance.
線上線下一體化持續推進，公司落地首個京東大藥房新型門店。2024年第三季度期內，京東健康繼續完善線上醫療服務體驗，全新推出多款快速檢測服務，實現“問診+檢驗+醫藥及健康商品銷售”線上醫療服務模式閉環。公司推出超過100項上門檢測及27項居家護理服務，覆蓋北京、上海、廣州、深圳等全國14個城市，進一步提高一站式服務體驗。10月11日，“之業堂”京東健康國醫館北京首店正式開業。10月18日，京東健康旗下京東大藥房的首個新型門店，在北京市東城區金寶街正式開業。我們認為，隨著京東買藥心智不斷強化，線上線下的服務流程節點打通，公司有望為用戶提供更加全面的「線上+線下」醫療健康服務，進一步完善業務形態。
Growing O2O integration; JD Pharmacy opens first new-format store in Beijing
Home-based tests and nursing: JDH improved user experience in its online medical services in 24Q3 with the rollout of multiple types of fast medical tests. This fleshes out its closed-loop online medical service business spanning consultations, tests and sales of medicines and health products. To enhance the one-stop-shop experience, JDH’s more than 100 types of at-home testing and 27 home nursing services are available in 14 cities across China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Physical stores: JDH opened its first Chinese medicine clinic, Zhiyetang, in Beijing on 11 Oct, followed by the opening of its new-format JD Pharmacy on Jinbao Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing on 18 Oct.
Outlook: we anticipate consumer mindshare of buying medicines at JD will increase as the company continues to link up O2O services and processes. We believe JDH will keep improving its business model and continue to provide online consumers with extensive O2O medical and health services.
圍繞細分人群健康需求，提供全面“商品+服務”。京東雙十一期間，公司醫療藥品、營養保健、醫療器械等各品類迎來全面增長。近5000萬用戶參與京東健康的“單單返現活動”，京東健康採銷直播間訂單量同比增長7.2倍，成交額同比增長近3倍。銀髮族主動健康意識持續提升，在慢病用藥、營養保健、醫療器械等品類中，針對老年群體的多款商品成交額同比增長140%；滋補養生的年輕化趨勢明顯，購買營養保健品的16-25歲用戶數同比增長35%。同時，公司與Swisse、inne、Move Free益節、燕之屋、GNC、萬益藍WonderLab等品牌簽署戰略合作協議，將於未來三年實現銷售額增長300%的目標。我們認為，用戶健康消費趨於多元化，京東健康依託於全品類健康產品，疊加線上線下一體化服務，行業龍頭價值有望進一步凸顯。
Product-cum-service model fulfills requirements of target market segments
Singles Day: JDH’s categories like medical drugs, nutritional health care and medical devices drove growth across the board during JD.com’s Double-11 shopping festival this November. Nearly 50m users took part in its cash-back campaign and JDH’s livestream rooms featuring choice picks saw order volumes rise 7.2x yoy as turnover increased nearly 3x yoy.
We observed the following trends:
•Senior market: with elderly consumers increasingly proactive and health conscious, a wide range of merchandise targeting this segment fueled turnover growth of 140% yoy, including chronic disease medications, nutritional health care and medical devices.
•Youth market: there is a clear trend of young people recognizing the rejuvenation benefits of nourishing health products, where the number of users aged 16-25 years old purchasing nutritional supplements increased 35% yoy.
•Brand collaborations: the company signed strategic pacts with brands like Swisse, inne, Move Free, Yan Palace, GNC and WonderLab to fulfill its sales goal of 300% growth within 3 years.
Outlook: we believe JDH’s leadership in an online health market of diverse consumer requirements will become increasingly obvious on the strength of its extensive range of health products and integrated O2O services.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
投資建議：考慮到消費者健康意識提升，線上醫保有序推進，產品結構調整，我們調整公司2024-2026年收入預測為585/647/718 億元（24/25前值575/674億元），調整後淨利潤為46/50/61億元，維持“買入”評級。長期來看，我們看好公司作為自營醫藥電商不斷強化，活躍用戶繼續滲透，以及行業領先的全渠道供應鏈能力保障。
Valuation and risks
In light of growing consumer health awareness, increasing traction of JDH’s online medical insurance business and the company’s product mix optimization, we raise our revenue forecasts to RMB58.5bn/64.7bn/71.8bn for 2024/25/26E (previously RMB57.5bn/67.4bn for 2024/25E), with our adjusted net profit at RMB4.6bn/5.0bn/6.1bn in those years. We expect JDH’s directly-run pharmaceutical ecommerce business will expand over the long term as more active users are drawn to its industry-leading omnichannel supply chain capabilities. We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示：1. 宏觀經濟的不確定性；2. 互聯網醫療政策收緊；3. 處方藥銷售不及預期；4. 行業競爭加劇
Risks include: macroeconomic uncertainties; policy tightening on the online medical market; prescription drugs sales fall short of expectations; and intensifying competition.
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