騰訊控股：遊戲確收進入收穫期—騰訊控股3Q2024業績點評

整體業績：3Q24收入+8%，Non-IFRS經營利潤同比+19%，繼續保持盈利快於收入增長的乘數效應

3Q2024公司收入同比+8%，環比+4；毛利同比+16%，環比+3%；Non-IFRS經營利潤同比+19%，環比+5%；3Q2024公司毛利率同比提升3.6pct，環比微降0.2pct。3Q2024公司經營開支，同比+12%，環比+5%，略高於我們和彭博預期，但費用率仍位於相對低位。公司業務層面的收入、毛利與經營利潤與我們預期、彭博預期基本一致，繼續保持了Non-IFRS經營利潤同比增速>毛利潤同比增速>收入增速的趨勢。

3Q2024公司Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤同比+33%，環比+4%，超過彭博預期約10%。我們在10月31日發佈的報告《預計盈利增長韌性相對明顯—騰訊控股3Q2024業績前瞻》中已提出預計3Q2024公司分佔聯合營公司損益同比增長、Non-IFRS所得稅率同比下降，將帶動Non-IFRS歸母淨利潤增長快於經營利潤增長。實際情況與我們判斷基本一致，我們預計這兩個淨利潤帶動因素仍有望在四季度繼續發揮積極作用。

24Q3E profit growth outpaced revenue growth; operating profit rose 19% yoy 

Key metrics: Tencent Holdings released unaudited 24Q3E results on 13 Nov with revenue up 8% yoy and 4% qoq; gross profit up 16% yoy and 3% qoq; non-IFRS operating profit up 19% yoy and 5% qoq; and gross margin up 3.6ppt yoy but down 0.2ppt qoq. 

Expenses: operating expenses increased 12% yoy and 5% qoq in 24Q3E, slightly more than we expected and above Bloomberg consensus expectations (BBG), although expense ratios remained relatively low. 

Faster profit growth: generally, the major business metrics of revenue, gross profit and operating profit were consistent with our expectations and BBG. In order of performance, yoy growth trends were as follows: non-IFRS operating profit > gross profit > revenue. Meanwhile, non-IFRS net profit rose 33% yoy and 4% qoq in 24Q3E, about 10% better than BBG. 

Net profit catalysts: in our 8 Nov report, 24Q3E preview: we expect Tencent’s business resilience would have bolstered earnings growth, we had projected the company’s share of JV profits in 24Q3 would increase yoy and non-IFRS income tax rates would decline yoy, so that non-IFRS net profit growth would outpace operating profit growth. The reality has been more or less consistent with our estimates. We expect these two net profit drivers will continue to have a positive impact in 24Q4E.

網絡遊戲：3Q24收入增速如期提升，持續關注《地下城與勇士：起源》運營節奏

3Q2024公司網絡遊戲收入同比+13%，與我們預期、彭博預期基本一致。其中國內遊戲收入同比+14%，略高於我們預期，得益於包括《無畏契約》、《王者榮耀》、《和平精英》及《地下城與勇士：起源》等的驅動。根據Nexon披露，3Q2024其中國區收入同比+138%。此外，公司業績會披露三季度《王者榮耀》流水同比增長，《和平精英》流水同比雙位數增長，長青遊戲運營持續發力。

3Q2024公司海外遊戲收入同比+9%（按固定匯率計算+11%），略低於我們預期。海外遊戲收入增速顯著落後於流水增速，因為部分遊戲留存率提高，公司相應延長了收入遞延週期。

展望後續，我們預計四季度遊戲收入增速有望繼續加速。持續關注《地下城與勇士：起源》運營節奏，雖然Nexon對於4Q2024中國區收入指引環比視角相對謹慎，公司管理層在業績會上亦指出預計四季度將是《地下城與勇士：起源》整合期，明年春節將發佈重要內容更新，提高用戶留存和變現。

Online games: Q3E revenue uptrend as expected; monitor DnF: Mobile operations

Key metrics: revenue from online games expanded 13% yoy in 24Q3E, roughly consistent with our expectations and BBG. A market breakdown shows: 

China market: game revenue from the domestic market increased 14% yoy in Q3E, a tad better than we had expected, driven by Valorant, Honor of Kings, Peacekeeper Elite and Dungeon & Fighter (DnF): Mobile. Nexon, Tencent’s South Korean partner, said its China market revenue increased 138% yoy in the quarter. At Tencent’s Q3E results conference the company revealed that revenue from Honor of Kings expanded yoy, while revenue from Peacekeeper Elite increased at a double-digit yoy, indicating steady growth momentum in flagship game operations.

International markets: game revenue from foreign markets increased 9% yoy in 24Q3E, (or 11% based on constant currency), slightly below our expectations. Foreign market game revenue growth was much slower than turnover growth. Rising retention rates in some games led the company to extend its revenue deferral period.

Outlook: we expect gaming revenue growth is continuing to accelerate in Q4E. We would monitor the operational momentum at DnF: Mobile. Although Nexon is somewhat cautious on its qoq metric for 24Q4E revenue guidance for the China market, management had said at the Q3E results conference that it expects Q4E will reflect the integration phase of DnF: Mobile. The company plans to release major content updates for the Chinese New Year season in 2025E to increase player retention and monetization.

營銷服務：3Q2024收入同比+17%，持續關注視頻號廣告加庫存節奏

3Q2024公司營銷服務收入同比+17%，環比持平，與我們預期、彭博預期基本一致。三季度遊戲、電商行業的廣告開支同比增長，超過了房地產及食品飲料行業縮減的開支。

1）三季度視頻號廣告收入同比增長超過60%，目前視頻號廣告加載率遠低於同行，我們看好視頻號中期內提庫存的驅動作用。騰訊通過微信小店建立索引化、標準化電商平臺系統，我們認為，長期而言，電商生態發展有望與視頻號等廣告產品相互循環促進。

2）三季度搜索廣告收入同比增速超過100%，微信搜一搜商業化檢索量與點擊率均同比增長。微信搜一搜利用LLM能力提升了對複雜檢索和內容的理解，搜索結果相關性增強。

Marketing services: Q3E revenue up 17%; watch Video Account ads and inventory

Key points: revenue from marketing services increased 17% yoy and was flat qoq in 24Q3E, which were consistent with our expectations and BBG. Advertising spending in the gaming and ecommerce businesses was higher yoy in Q3E, which more than offset ad spending cuts in real estate and F&B. 

Video Accounts and Mini Shops: ad revenue from WeChat Video Accounts increased more than 60% yoy in the third quarter. Video Accounts’ ad loading rates were far below those of market peers. We anticipate Video Accounts will drive up inventory in the medium term. For its Mini Shops, Tencent set up a standardized and indexed ecommerce system for store merchants. We expect both the ecommerce ecosystem and advertising products such as Video Accounts will grow in synergy over the long run. 

Search ads revenue increased more than 100% yoy in the third quarter, as both commercial search volumes and click rates for WeChat Search increased yoy. WeChat Search leverages LLM capabilities to boost perception in complex searches and content, and increase the relevance of search results.

FBS：3Q24收入同比+2%，10月支付TPV增速回升，GPU相關雲收入已達一定規模

3Q2024公司金融科技與企業服務收入同比+2%，與我們預期一致，略低於彭博預期。三季度金融科技服務收入同比基本穩定，其中支付服務收入同比下降。公司業績會提及10月支付TPV增速有所上升，四季度支付收入增速或有望改善。值得注意是，三季度公司GPU相關雲收入佔IaaS雲收入比重已達雙位數，AI帶來的增量算力需求的收入貢獻漸有一定規模。

FBS revenue up 2% yoy in Q3E; TPV growth returned in Oct; GPU cloud scaled up

Fintech and business services (FBS) reported a 2% yoy revenue increase in 24Q3E, which was consistent with our expectations and slightly lower than BBG. Fintech service revenue was stable yoy, while payment service revenue declined yoy. Tencent mentioned at the results conference that total payment volume (TPV) growth rose yoy in October and it expects total payment revenue will grow in Q4E. It noted that the GPU-driven business contributed a double-digit share to infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) cloud revenue in Q3E, while the revenue contribution from incremental AI-driven computing power demand has reached a certain scale.