好太太:期待以舊換新表現

文摘   2024-11-18 17:17   广东  

Guangdong Hotata Technology Group 

(603848 CH)


期待以舊換新表現


24Q3E review: net profit down 47% yoy; we anticipate trade-in subsidy policy take-up will improve profitability

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發布三季報

24Q3收入3.6億,同减10.3%,歸母淨利潤0.5億,同减46.8%,扣非歸母淨利潤0.5億,同减41.5%;


24Q1-3收入10.7億,同减4.2%,歸母淨利潤1.9億,同减20.1%,扣非歸母淨利潤1.9億,同减17.1%;


24Q1-3毛利率52.7%,同增2.3pct,淨利率17.8%,同减3.5pct。


2024Q3大宗原材料價格有上漲趨勢,公司在供應端、産品設計端、品牌端優勢能够保持公司毛利潤水平和淨利潤水平的穩定。


公司將繼續通過供應商尋源優化、集中議價及采購等措施來合理地維持原材料價格,同時通過技術革新,向上游進行滲透等措施,來保持毛利率水平符合公司預期。


前三季度費用比例處於可控範圍內,符合公司預期;四季度將按照實時情况進行管控,力爭全年維持穩定利潤率。


24Q3E: revenue down 10%, net profit down 47% on rising bulk raw material prices

Top and bottom lines: Hotata Technology recently released unaudited results for the third quarter:

-24Q3E: revenue arrived at RMB360m, down 10.3% yoy; net profit came in at RMB50m, down 46.8% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB50m, down 41.5% yoy.

-24Q1-3E: revenue amounted to RMB1.07bn, down 4.2% yoy; net profit was RMB190m, down 20.1% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB190m, down 17.1% yoy.


Profitability: gross margin was 52.7% in 24Q1-3E, up 2.3ppt yoy, while net margin was 17.8%, down 3.5ppt yoy. With bulk raw materials’ prices mostly trending upward in the period, Hotata leveraged its supply, product design and brand advantages to help stabilize gross profit and net profit levels. Henceforth, the company plans to better manage raw material prices by optimizing supplier sourcing and using centralized bargaining and procurements. It also plans to maintain gross margins in line with expectations through technological innovations and upstream market penetration.


Expense ratios: expenses remained in the manageable range in the first three quarters, which was in line with the company’s expectations. In the current fourth quarter, Hotata is exercising real-time management and control in the hope that it will maintain stable profit margins for the full year.


致力於全渠道布局與智能産品升級

渠道端:堅持布局全渠道銷售模式,綫上綫下協同發展,强化營銷資源整合,綫上銷售收入和數量占比仍高於綫下。公司將持續推進銷售網絡深耕細作,深化管理全鏈路、精准、高效立體渠道體系。


綫下渠道,深耕傳統經銷商渠道,通過賦能終端零售提升助力頭部市場破局,通過積極布局下沉市場覆蓋更多空白城市,提升渠道運營質量。


綫上渠道,穩定傳統電商渠道市場占有率,同時加快突破抖音等新平台,一方面增加客戶黏性,信息即時交互,另一方面塑造品牌年輕化形象。通過不斷深化全渠道營銷管理,持續提升渠道管理效率。


産品端:智能類産品銷售占比超85%。公司持續對産品進行升級換代,滿足消費者需求,智能類産品銷售額占比達到公司預期。公司將繼續緊貼用戶需求,合理規劃産品結構。


User market responsiveness: omnichannel buildout and smart product upgrades

Channel optimization: by applying a consistent omnichannel sales network model, the company has driven the synergistic development of both the online and offline channels, and strengthened the integration of marketing resources. Online sales revenues and volumes currently outperform the offline business. The company is pushing to deepen traction of its sales network and enhance whole-chain management with an accurate and efficient three-dimensional channel system.


O2O: its efforts to enhance omnichannel marketing management to raise channel management efficiency include the following:

-Offline: Hotata boosted its traditional dealer channels by empowering leading players. It helped them achieve breakthroughs in end-market retailing by extending coverage to untapped cities in lower-tier markets, thereby improving the quality of its channel operations.

-Online: the company stabilized its market share in traditional ecommerce channels and accelerated engagement on new-market platforms such as Douyin. Hotata not only increased customer stickiness and real-time data exchange, but also recast a youthful brand image.


Smart products: Hotata’s smart products business currently accounts for more than 85% of total sales. The upgrade of products to fulfill consumer requirements and the sales share of smart products currently meet the company’s expectations. It aims to keep a close eye on user requirements in accordance with its product structure plans.


「以舊換新」逐步落地

「以舊換新」活動目前推進情况因綫上、綫下渠道及地區補貼政策差異而有所不同。晾曬行業綫上渠道進展較快,主要得益於政府溝通便利及平台支持。然而平台與政府補貼系統對接情况不一,天猫和京東已享受補貼,抖音和拼多多尚未拉通。綫下渠道補貼標準和條件各異,公司正嘗試打通內部鏈條,賦能綫下門店。


China’s trade-in subsidy policy has seen fast take-up in smart laundry racks

The take-up of the country’s trade-in subsidy campaign varies by channel and region, with differences between online and offline channels, as well as policy variations across market regions.


Online market: the policy has seen particularly rapid take-up in the online market for smart laundry racks, mainly due to accessible government communications and support for online platforms. However, different online platforms have had different experiences with the government subsidy system. For instance, Tmall and JD.com have already received their subsidy reimbursements, but Douyin and Pinduoduo have yet to do so.


Offline market: offline market channels are also experiencing variances in subsidy conditions and implementation and Hotata is attempting to open up its own internal supply chain to help empower offline stores.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持「買入」評級

基於24Q1-3業績表現,國內地産整體環境承壓,我們調整盈利預測,預計24-26年EPS分別爲0.7、0.8以及0.9元(原值爲0.8、0.9以及1.1元),PE分別爲20X/19X/16X。


Valuation and risks

The 24Q1-3 performance indicates macro pressures at work in the Chinese real estate industry. In this light, we have lowered our earnings forecast and now expect EPS to come in at RMB0.70/0.80/0.90 in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB0.80/0.90/1.10), corresponding to PE of 20x/19x/16x in those years. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:全球貿易政策變動風險;市場消費偏好變動風險;市場競爭風險;市場季節性波動風險;海外經營風險等。


Risks include: adverse changes in global trade policies; unfavorable changes in market consumption preferences; competitive risks; seasonal market fluctuations; and foreign operational risks.





Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)




文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。




天风国际
天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
 最新文章