神州泰嶽：業績延續同比高增，新產品週期將近——2024年三季報點評

投資要點/Investment Thesis

2024年三季度業績延續高增長，銷售費用繼續收縮

3Q24公司收入14.6億，同比+5%，環比-7%；歸母淨利潤4.6億，同比+191%，環比+38%；扣非歸母淨利潤2.1億元，同比+38%，環比-35%；經營活動淨現金流同比188%，環比+79%。

3Q24公司扣非業績繼續維持同比較高增長。本季度信用減值損失轉回2.5億元（主要系收回訴訟應收款衝減以前計提的壞賬準備所致），帶動了歸母淨利潤同比、環比大幅增長。

3Q24公司毛利率同比下降2.13pct至61.2%，環比基本平穩；銷售費用同比下降48%，環比下降18%，營銷投放力度整體保持低位；管理費用同比+51%，環比+47%，推測部分由於職工薪酬增加所致。

24Q3E revenue up 5% with net profit growth spike of 191%; falling sales expenses 

Beijing Ultrapower Software recently released unaudited 24Q3E results:

Key metrics:

•Revenue arrived at RMB1.46bn in 24Q3E, up 5% yoy and down 7% qoq; 

•Net profit was RMB463m, up 191% yoy and up 38% qoq; 

•Ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB215m, up 38% yoy and down 35% qoq; 

•Operating net cash flow rose 188% yoy and 79% qoq.

Profitability: 

•Non-GAAP profit maintained relatively high yoy growth in 24Q3E: a RMB253m reversal of credit impairment losses (mainly because a recovery in litigation receivables offset previous bad debt provisions) led to substantial yoy and qoq increases in net profit;

•Gross margin narrowed 2.13ppt yoy to 61.2% and was flat qoq in 24Q3E; 

•Sales expenses fell 48% yoy and 18% qoq on lower marketing promotions; and administrative expenses increased 51% yoy and 47% qoq, likely partly due to an increase in salaries.

核心遊戲流水錶現或相對穩健，持續關注新產品上線/投放節奏

根據Sensor Tower報告，7-9月公司的核心產品《Age of Origins》位居中國出海手遊收入榜第7、9、7，《戰火與秩序》排名第25、30、29。

根據七麥數據，在美國IOS市場遊戲暢銷榜中，今年三季度《Age of Origins》排名中位數為第19位，對比今年二季度為第16位，去年三季度為第14位，排名亦保持基本穩定。邊際層面，10月1日至11月2日，《Age of Origins》排名中位數為第20位，繼續保持相對穩定。

公司計劃於年末在海外推出兩款全新的“SLG+模擬經營”遊戲—科幻題材的《DL》和文明題材的《LOA》。兩款新遊戲後續也將在國內擇機發行，其中代號《DL》遊戲已經獲得國產遊戲版號，並且國內上線時也會發布小程序版本。考慮到下半年基數抬升，我們預計遊戲收入同比增速或有所放緩，重點關注四季度“聖誕節”等重點商業化窗口期表現。我們預計隨著2款新產品上線，公司或有望於2025年開始新一輪成長，持續關注新後續遊戲營銷投放變化。

Games: flagship titles deliver stable revenues; watch pace of product launches

Flagship titles: We observe that Ultrapower’s flagship Age of Origins is holding steady on games listings. Age of Origins placed 7th/9th/7th in July/Aug/Sep in terms of Chinese mobile games’ foreign market revenues, according to a Sensor Tower report, while War & Order placed 25th/30th/29th. Meanwhile, Qimai.cn reported that Age of Origins had a median rank of 19th in 24Q3 on iOS bestselling games lists in the US market, compared with 16th in 24Q2 and 14th in 23Q3. Narrowing the time frame, its median rank was 20th over 1 Oct to 2 Nov.

Pipeline plans: the company is preparing to launch two new management simulation games (SLG) in the international market at the end of the year. Their working titles are DL, a science-fiction-themed game, and LOA, which has a civilization theme. The company says it will release the two games in the China market at an appropriate time. DL has obtained its Chinese game title license and the company plans to accompany its launch in China with a mini-program version. 

Outlook: in view of H2 growth comps, we expect Ultrapower’s game revenue growth will slow down yoy in 24H2E. We would focus on the performance of key monetization windows like the Christmas season in Q4. With the launch of the two new pipeline products, the company could enter a new growth cycle in 2025E. We would continue to watch for new initiatives or changes in game marketing plans.

軟件業務上半年收入同比+30%，四季度將或將是確認收入的高峰季

四季度或將是公司軟件業務確認收入的高峰季，我們預計有望帶動整體收入增速回升。2024H1公司軟件和信息技術服務業務收入同比增長30%，其中AI/ICT運營管理、物聯網/通訊、創新服務等三大業務線，均取得了兩位數的營收增長。

Software: revenue rose 30% yoy in H1E; Q4 is peak season for revenue recognition

The fourth quarter of the year is typically peak season for revenue recognition of the company’s software business, so we expect this Q4E will drive up total revenue growth. Ultrapower’s software and information technology service business revenue increased 30% yoy in 24H1E, where all three major segments – AI and ICT operational management, Internet of Things and communications, and innovative services –achieved double-digit revenue growth.

投資建議/Investment Ideas