Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings
(0551 HK)
盈利靚麗,10月製造延續高增
Robust profits as expected in 24Q3E and manufacturing growth shot up in October
BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
公司公告24年1-9月財報及10月月度報告
24Q1-3公司營收61億美金同增1.5%,經營淨利率(OPM)6.6%同增2.7pct,歸母淨利3.3億美金同增141%;
其中24Q1-3製造營收41億美金同增9%,毛利率19.6%同增1.6pct,OPM7.9%同增3.8pct;歸母淨利3.02億美金同增174%;
24Q1-3鞋履出貨量1.87億雙同增16.2%;其中印尼出貨量同增27.4%佔53%,越南出貨量同增2.9%佔31%,中國大陸出貨量同增11%佔11%;
24Q1-3製造ASP20.24美元(23Q1-3為21.8美元);
24Q1-3製造產能利用率92%同增16pct;
24Q1-3公司零售營收139.8億人民幣同減10%,OPM3.7%同增0.4pct,歸母淨利3.4億人民幣同增10%。
24年10月公司製造業務營收同增21.3%(24年1-9月製造營收分別同增13%、-12%、0%、+3%、+8%、+3%、+22%、+21%、+27%),累計同增10.2%;寶勝營收10月單月同增4.7%,累計同減8%。
24M9E results: revenue up 1.5% yoy and net profit up 141% yoy; OPM at 6.6%
Yue Yuen Industrial (YY) reported unaudited 24Q1-3E results on 11 Nov with:
•Revenue up 1.5% yoy to USD6.1bn over the first 9 months;
•Operating profit margin (OPM) at 6.6%, up 2.7ppt yoy;
•Net profit at USD330m, up 141% yoy.
Manufacturing
Key metrics: revenue from the manufacturing business amounted to USD4.1bn in 24M9E, up 9% yoy; with gross margin at 19.6%, up 1.6ppt yoy, and OPM at 7.9%, up 3.8ppt yoy; while net profit arrived at USD302m, up 174% yoy.
Operational data:
•Footwear shipments amounted to 187m pairs in the first 3 quarters, up 16.2% yoy:
-Indonesia: shipments rose 27.4% yoy to account for 53% of the manufacturing business;
-Vietnam: shipments increased 2.9% yoy to account for 31%;
-Mainland of China: shipments increased 11% yoy to account for 11%.
•ASP was USD20.24 in 24M9E (vs USD21.80 a year ago).
•Production capacity utilization was at 92%, up 16ppt yoy.
Retail
Key metrics: revenue from the retail business came to RMB13.98bn, down 10% yoy; with OPM at 3.7%, up 0.4ppt yoy, and net profit at RMB340m, up 10% yoy.
October 2024E revenue update
•Manufacturing: revenue rose 21.3% yoy in October, bringing the 24M10E trend to 10.2% growth yoy; vs preceding months’ yoy growth at: Jan up 13%, Feb down 12%, March 0%, April up 3%, May up 8%, June up 3%, July up 22%, Aug up 21% and Sep up 27% yoy.
•Pou Sheng: revenue increased 4.7% yoy in October; bringing the 24M10 trend to a decline of 8% yoy.
24Q3隨著全球鞋履市場進一步常態化,對公司供應鞋履產品需求大幅提升,其製造業務訂單滿載而推動整體產能利用率及生產效率繼續上升。而品牌客戶側重具開發實力的策略性供應鏈夥伴亦加深此良好趨勢。
公司製造業務24Q3營運淡季不淡,產能持續處於供不應求狀態,而鞋履出貨增長強勁,單價跌幅亦逐季收窄;
公司繼續平衡需求與訂單排程,透過靈活調度產能並落實有序加班計劃,今年以來新增產能穩步提升,各製造廠區之產能負載不均狀況按季改善。
Managing a burgeoning order book through flexible production scheduling
Footwear market growth: as the global footwear market normalized in 24Q3, demand shot up for YY’s footwear products and the company’s manufacturing order book filled to the brim, while capacity utilization and production efficiency ticked up steadily. Brand customers also retuned their focus to strategic supply chain partners with development capabilities, which boosted the growth trend.
Stretched production capacities: the manufacturing business hardly slowed even during the typical low season in Q3 and production capacities remained tight and supply was under pressure, as footwear shipments grew strongly and the decline in unit prices softened quarter after quarter.
Flexible production scheduling: the company managed demand and order scheduling by implementing flexible production capacities through orderly overtime plans. In this way, it began to add on production capacities steadily from the beginning of the year, with uneven capacity loads across various manufacturing plants smoothed out quarter after quarter.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
上調盈利預測,維持買入評級
裕元為全球最大的運動、運動休閒、休閒鞋及戶外鞋製造商,擁有多元化的品牌客戶組合及生產基地。其與Nike、adidas、Asics、New Balance、Salomon及Timberland等領導國際品牌擁有長期合作關係,提供享譽盛名的頂級服務。公司遍佈全球的產能具備超卓生產能力,於快速反應能力、靈活性、創新能力、設計開發能力以及卓越的品質受到廣泛認可。
基於24年10月製造營收延續成長,零售業務成長轉正;以及24Q1-3裕元淨利率大幅增長,製造規模效應持續提升,成本優勢逐步顯現,我們調整盈利預測,預計公司FY24-26年收入分別為86.5億美元、96.5億美元、109.4億美元;
歸母淨利分別為4.6億美元、5.4億美元以及6.2億美元(原值為4.3億美元、4.8億美元以及5.3億美元);
EPS分別為0.28美元/股、0.33美元/股、0.38美元/股(原值為0.27美元/股、0.3美元/股以及0.33美元/股);
對應 PE 分別為 7X、6X、5X。
Valuation and risks
Industry recognition: with its diverse brand customer portfolio and production network, YY is the world’s largest manufacturer of footwear for the sports, athleisure, casual and outdoor markets. We believe the company is known for its top-tier services, through which It has built long-time ties with leading international brands like Nike, adidas, Asics, New Balance, Salomon and Timberland. It is also recognized in the industry for its global production capabilities and quick market response, flexibility, innovation, design and development capabilities, and high quality.
Valuation: in view of the manufacturing revenue growth momentum to October 2024, retail business growth, substantial total net margin expansion in 24Q1-3E, deepening impact of its rising manufacturing scale including an emerging cost advantage, we forecast revenue will arrive at USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn in 2024/25/26E; and raise our net profit projections to USD460m/540m/620m (previously USD430m/480m/530m); implying EPS of USD0.28/0.33/0.38 (previously USD0.27/0.3/0.33); and corresponding to PE of 7x/6x/5x. We maintain our BUY rating.
風險提示:消費不及預期;核心高管流失等;實際產能不及預期。
Risks include: a weaker-than-expected consumer market; loss of core executives; and lower-than-expected actual production capacities.
Email: research@tfisec.com
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