波司登:期待旺季表現

文摘   2024-12-16 21:43   广东  

波司登

Bosideng International

(3998 HK)


維持盈利預測,維持買入評級

Maintain profit forecast and maintain buy rating

买入(维持评级)

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈FY25H1財報。FY25H1收入88億同增17.8%,凈利11.3億同增23%,營收利潤穩健增長,中期利潤增速連續7年高於收入增速。毛利43.91億,同增17.6%,毛利率微降0.1pct至49.9%,EPS10.35分,同增22.2%,派發中期股息每股普通股6.0港仙。 

收入分部,羽絨服收入60.7億同增22.5%,凈利12.3億同增30.6%; 貼牌加工收入23.2億同增13.4%,凈利3.9億同增14%; 女裝收入3.1億同減21.5%,虧損0.5億;多元化服裝收入1.3億同增17.2%,虧損0.1億。


Bosideng International on 28 Nov released unaudited results for FY25H1E (half-year ended September 2024):

-Revenue arrived at RMB8.80bn, up 17.8% yoy, and net profit was RMBR1.13bn, up 23% yoy. Revenue and profit grew steadily; with the H1 profit growth rate surpassing the revenue growth rate for 7 straight years.

-Gross profit was RMB4.39bn, up 17.6% yoy, and gross margin fell slightly by 0.1ppt to 49.9%.

-EPS was RMB10.35cents, up 22.2% yoy

-DPS: the company declared an interim dividend of HKD0.06 per ordinary share.


Product categories:

-Down jackets contributed revenue of RMB6.07bn in FYH1E, up 22.5% yoy, and net profit of RMB1.23bn, up 30.6% yoy;

-OEM revenue was RMB2.32bn, up 13.4% yoy, while net profit was RMB390m, up 14% yoy;

-Womenswear revenue was RMB308m, down 21.5% yoy, but posted a loss of RMB50m;

-Diversified apparel contributed revenue of RMB129m, up 17.2% yoy, but made a loss of RMB13m.


品牌方面,波司登主品牌收入52.8億同增19.4%

波司登品牌直營收入同增36.2%; 品牌羽絨服線上實現穩健及高質量增長,收入同增24.1%; 波司登品牌全管道可比同店增長30%+,非旺季單店運營提質增效成果顯著,打破傳統非旺季單店凈利能力弱的壁壘。

雪中飛品牌羽絨服收入3.9億同增47.1%,聚焦高性價比羽絨服市場賽道; 多元化業務中颯美特校服收入同增30.4%,提升客戶粘性,做實品類專家美譽;

合資公司 BOGNER高奢滑雪定位、打造全方位消費者互動體驗推出迎合中國消費者的滑雪系列產品; 投資加拿大奢侈羽絨服品牌Moose Knuckles,佈局打造完整的品牌矩陣。


Brand breakdown:

· Bosideng main brand generated revenue of RMB5.28bn, up 19.4% yoy:

Direct sales revenue increased 36.2% yoy as down jackets tracked a steady revenue uptrend at 24.1% yoy with good-quality growth online;

Omni-channel comparable same-store sales increased more than 30%, and quality and efficiency of non-peak-season single-store operations improved significantly, turning around the previous trend of weak net profit margins in terms of non-peak-season single stores.

· Snow Flying down jackets generated RMB390m in revenue, up 47.1% yoy, positioning itself as highly cost-effective apparel;

· Sameite school uniforms (under the Diversified category) delivered 30.4% yoy higher revenue with an increase in customer stickiness on its expertise in this niche apparel category grew in reputation.


Collaborations: Bogner JV launches high-end ski wear lines; Moose Knuckles

Bogner JV: Bosideng’s collaboration with Bogner is positioned in the high-end ski apparel market. The brand has created full-spectrum interactive consumer experiences with launches of a series of ski products that cater to Chinese consumers.

Moose Knuckles: Bosideng also invested into Moose Knuckles, a Canadian luxury down jacket brand, to fill out its brand matrix.


主品牌業務首提「四項強化」 提升運營淨利能力

1)強化品牌引領:持續夯實“全球領先的羽絨服專家”品牌形象,從羽絨服全球規模領先的品牌認知向羽絨服全球全面領先升級,例如聯名北京電影節、哈爾濱冰雪世界舉辦時尚秀場,極地極寒羽絨服合作極地研究中心遠征南極等。


2)強化品類經營:品類創新、材料創新、技術創新鏈接消費者精準開發,持續贏得消費者心智。 推新防曬服、單殼衝鋒衣等功能性外套,三合一“疊變”系列衝鋒衣羽絨服,聯名機能教父Errolson Hugh、MSGM系列等。


3)強化渠道運營:線下擴大打造Top店體系,形成引領範本並予以複製推廣; 關注戰略增量市場,反覆運算管道分層經營體系; 做實單店運營,提升精細化管理能力和運營效率。 線上持續穩健及高質量增長,有效拓客以及注重高品質用戶沉澱,在天貓及京東平台會員超1900萬,抖音平台粉絲超950萬。


4)強化客戶體驗:構建使用者全生命週期精細化運營體系,提升客戶體驗和滿意度,推動使用者價值驅動的經營增長。


Main business: 4 reinforcements to upgrade operations and profitability

1) Substantial to substantive leader: Bosideng plans to build on its current positioning as “the world’s leading down jacket expert” by recasting its profile from a scale player to a true global brand leader of down apparel in all respects. It embarked on product development collaborations with the Beijing Film Festival and the Harbin Ice and Snow World, which will involve host fashion shows, as well as with Polar Research Institute of China to develop Polar Extreme down jackets for Arctic and Antarctic expeditions.


2) Category enhancements: the brand plans to increase category efficiencies and align innovations in research and materials to more precisely target consumer markets and expand mindshare. To this end, Bosideng launched functional outerwear such as sun protection jackets, single-shell windbreakers and three-in-one “overlap” jackets, as well as down jackets, co-branding with techwear icon Errolson Hugh and MSGM’s Massimo Giorgetti to launch collections.


3) Channel operations:

· In the offline market, the company wants to expand its Top Store system by creating a leading model, then replicating and promoting this with the focus on incremental strategic markets. It involves iteration of its hierarchical channel management system, firming up single-store operations, and stepping up close management capabilities and operational efficiencies.

· In the online market, it hopes to maintain a steady growth trend, while upgrading quality, expanding the customer base and amassing more premium users. The company currently has more than 19m members on the Tmall and JD platforms, and more than 9.5m followers on Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok.


4) Customer experience: plans include building out a fine-tuned operation system that would cover a user’s entire life cycle, improving customer experience and satisfaction, and promoting business growth that is driven by user value.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持買入評級

未來公司錨定「聚焦羽絨服主航道、聚焦時尚功能科技服飾主賽道」發展方向,升級“戰略佈局、研發創新、協同供應、管理體系”四項核心能力,強化“品牌引領、品類經營、渠道運營、客戶體驗”四項核心舉措。


我們預計公司FY25-27收入分別為265億人民幣、301億人民幣、341億人民幣; FY25-27歸母凈利分別36億人民幣、41億人民幣、46億人民幣; FY25-27EPS分別為0.32元人民幣/股、0.37元人民幣/股、0.42元人民幣/股。


Forecast and risks

Outlook: Bosideng wants its development direction anchored on the down jackets core category and positioning mainly in fashionable apparel with tech-driven functionality. The company plans to upgrade its four key competencies: a strategic buildout, R&D innovations, collaborative supply and its management system. In line with these, the company wants to strengthen four key initiatives: brand leadership, category management, channel operations and the customer experience.


Forecast: we project revenue of RMB26.5bn/30.1bn/34.1bn and net profit of RMB3.6bn/ 4.1bn/4.6bn in FY25/26/27E, implying EPS of RMB0.32/0.37/0.42. We maintain our BUY rating on Bosideng.


風險提示:行業競爭加劇風險,原材料價格波動風險,品牌經營風險等。


Risks include: intensifying competition; raw material price fluctuations; and brand management risks.

Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)


文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。


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