Anhui Xinhua Media
(601801 CH)
24Q3點評:主業保持穩健,在手現金充裕
24Q3E results review: core business was stable with sufficient cash in hand
BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
事件:公司於近日披露2024年第三季度報告。2024年第三季度,公司實現營業收入31.25億元,同比減少16.6%;歸母淨利潤2.33億元,同比減少10.09%;所得稅費用0.5億元,有效稅率為17%;扣非淨利潤1.63億元,同比減少41.6%;截至三季度末,現金合計105.82億元。
24Q3E textbooks business was stable; general books and AV dragged by macros
Anhui Xinhua Media recently released unaudited results for 24Q3E:
•Revenue arrived at RMB3.13bn, down 16.6% yoy;
•Net profit was RMB233m, 10.09% lower yoy; Xinhua paid RMB50m in income taxes (effectively a tax rate of 17%) and ex-nonrecurring net profit came to RMB163m, down 41.6% yoy;
•Cash: RMB10.58bn as of end-24Q3.
教材圖書基本保持穩定,一般圖書受行業影響波動。2024年第三季度,公司教材圖書及一般圖書及音像製品分別實現銷售碼洋17.23/ 42.53億元,同比下滑1.52%/7.59%。教材圖書、一般圖書及音像製品分別實現營業收入16.06/ 35.77億元,同比下滑1.52%/7.35%。截至2024年6月底,公司在安徽、江蘇、北京等地擁有804個實體門店,形成覆蓋安徽全省、輻射周邊的完整出版物分銷服務及教育服務體系。我們認為,隨著公司持續深耕市場,提高市場化教輔的發行能力和市佔率,公司主營業務有望保持增長態勢。
Business performance breakdown:
•Sales (based on recommended retail price): textbooks generated RMB1.72bn (down 1.52% yoy) in 24Q3E; while general books and audio-visual products generated RMB4.26bn (down 7.59% yoy).
•Revenue: textbooks generated RMB1.61bn (down 1.52% yoy); while general books and AV products generated RMB3.58bn (down 7.35% yoy).
Physical store footprint: Xinhua's network of 804 physical stores (as of end-June 2024) centers on Anhui province and radiates out to areas such as Jiangsu and Beijing. Through it, the company provides comprehensive publishing, distribution and educational services. Xinhua is expanding market presence and enhancing distribution. Even while it expands its share of the market-oriented teaching aids business, we expect Xinhua's core business will likely maintain stable growth.
毛利率和費用率保持相對穩定。2024年第三季度,公司毛利率為23%,其中,教材圖書、一般圖書及音像製品毛利率分別為25.08%/ 39.44%,同比變動-0.03pct/ +0.87pct;公司銷售費用率/管理費用率/研發費用率分別為8.4%/4.5%/0.2%。
Profitability:
•Gross margin was 23% in 24Q3E: textbooks posted 25.08% (narrowing 0.03ppt yoy), while general books and AV products together posted 39.44% (widening 0.87ppt yoy).
•Expense ratios: sales expenses had a ratio of 8.4%; administrative expenses 4.5%; and R&D expenses 0.2%.
教育服務產業鏈延伸拓寬,供應鏈服務體系持續做強。2024年上半年,公司持續創新重點主題出版物發行服務體系,上線數字化管理平臺,重點主題出版物持續位居全國前列。公司作為安徽省唯一一家擁有教材發行資質的公司,圍繞政策新導向和用戶新需求,積極推進包括研學教育、勞動教育實踐、課後延時服務等在內的素質教育整體解決方案,有望構建公司教育產業生態圈層,實現業務的協同發展。
Educational services: adding value chain traction and boosting supply chain
Xinhua continued to drive tech innovations at the distribution service system of key thematic publications and it went online with a digital management platform, so that the key thematic publications continued to lead the Chinese market. As the only publisher qualified to produce textbooks in Anhui province, Xinhua seeks to fulfill both new user requirements in the market and new policy directives by providing a comprehensive range of quality educational solutions, including research education, the practice of manpower education and extended after-school services. Xinhua expects to build an educational industry ecosystem to drive coordinated business development.
加快人工智能教育產品佈局,與智譜合作共同研發閱讀類大模型。根據公司2024年半年報,公司與華為雲計算技術有限公司聯合實施“數字皖新”規劃項目,推動各產業與數字技術深度融合。並與一流高校和企業合作,打造“美麗科學”數字教育融媒體平臺,構建中小學科學教育整體解決方案;打造終身閱讀伴侶學習機,與智譜華章合作開發皖新閱讀大模型,研製皖新元小鰲機器人,推進人工智能在文化教育服務垂直領域的深度開發應用,拓展文化教育領域數字新賽道。
AI educational services buildout; tied up with Zhipu to develop a reading LLM
Xinhua and Huawei Cloud Computing Technology jointly rolled out the Digital Anhui Xinhua planning project, which aims to drive deep integration of various industries with digital technologies, based on information from the company’s 24H1 results report. The initiatives include:
•Working with top-tier universities and corporations to build a Beauty of Science digital education integrated media platform;
•Constructing holistic solutions for science education in primary and secondary schools;
•Creating a lifelong reading companion learning device;
•Working with Zhipu Huazhang to develop the Anhui Xinhua Reading large language model (LLM) and the Anhui Xinhua YuanXiaoAo robot;
•Promoting the in-depth development and application of AI in vertical industries of cultural and educational services, while expanding new digital areas in culture and education.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
投資建議:考慮到圖書市場整體疲軟公司主業短期承壓。後續隨著公司多元化佈局智慧教育,供應鏈和文化服務數字等領域,公司智慧教育業務和遊戲業務未來有望受益於AIGC發展,增強公司盈利能力。我們調整公司2024-2026年收入為118/130/140億元(前值分別為129.30/ 146.11/ 162.18億元),同比增速分別為5%/ 10%/ 8%,歸母淨利潤分別為7.7/9.3/10.6億元 (前值分別為10.51/ 12.65/ 14.73億元),維持“買入”評級。
Valuation and risks
Xinhua's core books business is under pressure from short-term macro factors. As the company diversifies into smart education, the supply chain business and digital cultural services, we believe its smart education and gaming businesses will benefit from AIGC development in the future, which would enhance its profitability. Meanwhile, we have lowered our revenue forecasts to RMB11.8bn/13bn/14bn for 2024/25/26E (previously RMB12.93bn/14.61bn/16.22bn), up 5%/10%/8%; and our net profit forecasts have moved to RMB770m/930m/1.06bn (previously RMB1.05bn/1.27bn/1.47bn). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
風險提示:教輔市場整體需求下降,數字服務及智慧教育業務發展不及預期,測算主觀性風險
Risks include: declining demand in the supplementary education services market; weaker-than-expected development in digital services and the smart education business; and risks related to the subjectivity of estimates.
Email: research@tfisec.com
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