阿里巴巴-SW: 雲智能、本地生活盈利釋放，8月底或完成雙重上市

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司披露FY25Q1季度報告

FY25Q1阿里實現收入2432億元，yoy+4%，低於彭博一致預期2.7%。經營利潤爲360億元，yoy-15%，超彭博一致預期9%。經調整EBITA爲450億元，yoy-1%，超彭博一致預期5.8%。調整後淨利潤爲407億元，yoy-9%，超彭博一致預期4.0%。

股份回購方面，截至FY25Q1，公司以58億美元的總價回購總計6.13億股普通股，包括於2024年5月23日可轉換票據發行同時透過非公開市場交易回購的約12億美元的美國存托股。截至2024年6月30日，公司流通的普通股爲190.24億股，相比於2024年3月31日，淨減少了4.45億股普通股。

分業務：淘寶天貓集團收入1134億元，低於彭博一致預期3.6%，其中零售收入1074億元，包括客戶管理收入801億元，直銷收入273億元；經調整EBITA達488億元，超彭博一致預期0.3%。雲智能集團和本地生活本季度盈利釋放，EBITA大幅好於預期。本地生活收入162億元，超彭博一致預期0.3%，經調整EBITA-4億元，好於彭博一致預期81.0%。雲智能集團收入265億元，超彭博一致預期1.1%，經調整EBITA 23億元，超彭博一致預期62.5%。

June-quarter revenue grew 4% yoy and profit decline was softer than expected

Key metrics: Alibaba recently released unaudited results for FY25Q1E (the quarter ended June 2024): 

•Revenue arrived at RMB243.2bn, up 4% yoy (2.7% worse than the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG)). 

•Operating profit was RMB36.0bn, down 15% yoy (9% better than BBG). 

•Adjusted EBITA at RMB45.0bn, down 1% yoy (beating BBG by 5.8%). 

•Adjusted net profit at RMB40.7bn, down 9% yoy (beating BBG by 4.0%). 

Share buybacks: Alibaba bought back 613m ordinary shares for USD5.8bn in FY25Q1E, including USD1.2bn of American depositary shares in privately negotiated transactions, alongside the issuance of convertible notes on 23 May 2024. It has 19.02bn ordinary shares outstanding as of 30 June 2024, a net decrease of 445m shares from 31 March 2024. 

Revenue streams: 

•Taobao and Tmall: revenue dipped 1% yoy to RMB113.4bn in FYQ1E (3.6% worse than BBG):

-Retail contributed RMB107.4bn: RMB80.1bn from customer management and RMB27.3bn from direct sales.

-Adjusted EBITA dipped 1% yoy to RMB48.8bn (beating BBG by 0.3%). 

•Smart cloud and local services posted much better EBITA than expected: 

-Smart cloud generated revenue of RMB26.5bn (1.1% better than BBG); and adjusted EBITA came to RMB2.3bn (62.5% better than BBG).

-Local services drew revenue of RMB16.2bn (0.3% above BBG); with adjusted EBITA loss at RMB386m, (81% better than BBG). 

淘寶天貓集團：FY25Q1收入1134億元，經調整EBITA爲448億元。1）公司對具價格競爭力的商品、客戶服務、會員體系權益和技術等戰略舉措加大投入，帶來更高的消費者留存率和購買頻次。2）通過在推薦和匹配算法等技術上的投入，通過由多元化供應商提供更多有價格競爭力的供給，改善產品與用戶需求的匹配度，提升用戶流量轉化爲購買力。3）4月推出AI驅動的全平臺市場營銷工具“全站推廣”，具備自動出價、優化目標人羣定位和效果看板可視化功能，有望提高商家市場營銷投入及改善其市場營銷效率，目前使用產品的商家數穩步提升。4）購買人數和購買頻次的增長下，線上GMV同比高單位數增長，訂單量同比雙位數增長。公司成功舉辦淘寶天貓618購物節，其線上GMV同比實現強勁增長。5）高端消費者方面，88VIP會員數量持續同比雙位數增長，超過4200萬。

Taobao and Tmall: RMB113.4bn revenue and RMB48.8bn adjusted EBITA in FYQ1E

•More investments: the company added investments into its strategic initiatives – competitive merchandise pricing, customer services, membership benefits, technological enhancements – which increased consumer retention and purchasing frequency. 

•Tech enhancements included recommendation and matching algorithms, and more competitively priced merchandise from diverse suppliers. These enabled better matching of products and user requirements, and drove up user traffic conversion to purchases.

•Quanzhantui AI marketing: Alibaba launched Quanzhantui, its new AI-driven marketing tool in April. The platform-wide tool offers full-site promotions through functionalities like automated bidding, optimized consumer group targeting and dashboard visualization. Merchants would spend more on marketing but raise their marketing efficiency, and we note a steady increase in the number of merchants adopting the tool. 

•GMV growth: online GMV increased by a high-single-digit yoy in FYQ1E and order volume expanded by a double-digit yoy. This year’s 618 shopping festival at Taobao and Tmall saw a yoy growth spike in online GMV. 

•Premium shoppers: 88VIP members increased to more than 42m, a double-digit yoy growth trend.

雲業務：減虧進展超預期，FY25Q1收入265億元，yoy+6%，經調整EBITA 23億元。整體收入（不計來自阿里巴巴並表業務的收入）同比增長超過6%，由公共雲業務的雙位數增長和AI相關產品的採用量提升所帶動。AI相關產品收入持續錄得三位數同比增長。公司繼續對客戶和技術進行投入，以提升AI領域的雲採用量。大模型方面，通義千問第二代開源模型在推理、代碼生成和數學等領域展現顯著的性能提升，同時增強安全功能，擴展至支持27種語言。使用阿里雲AI平臺（百鍊）的付費用戶數量環比增長超過200%。

Smart cloud: revenue rose 6% yoy and loss reduction was better than expected 

Excluding Alibaba-consolidated subsidiaries, smart cloud revenue increased over 6% yoy to RMB26.5bn in the quarter on double-digit growth in public cloud and wider adoption of AI products: 

•AI products: revenue shot up by a triple-digit yoy as Alibaba continued to invest into customers and technology to increase cloud adoption in its AI business. 

•LLM: Alibaba’s open-source large language model Qwen 2.0 took big strides ahead in terms of inference, code generation and mathematics, while enhancing security features and expanding its support interface to 27 languages. 

•Bailian AI platform: the number of paying users of Alibaba Cloud’s Bailian AI platform surged more than 200% qoq.

AIDC：AIDC收入293億元，yoy+32%，經調整EBITA -37億元。速賣通和Trendyol平臺加大對歐洲和海灣地區等特定市場的投入，以提升消費者心智。速賣通平臺擴大其供應商範圍，現已包括本地商家。此外，速賣通與巴西領先零售商Magazine Luiza（“Magalu”）建立合作關係，雙方將在對方平臺上開設和運營門店。Choice的單位經濟效益環比顯著改善。

Global ecommerce: AIDC revenue up 32% yoy; wider adjusted EBITA loss 

Alibaba’s international digital commerce (AIDC) generated revenue of RMB29.3bn in the quarter (yoy +32%), but adjusted EBITA loss widened to RMB3.7bn:

•Europe and Gulf markets: AliExpress and Trendyol platforms increased investments to increase consumer mindshare in these markets.

•Local suppliers: AliExpress expanded its range of suppliers to include local merchants. 

•Brazilian partnership: AliExpress forged ties with leading Brazilian retailer Magazine Luiza, where each party would open and operate a storefront on the other’s platform. 

•Choice: cross-border business expanded substantially on this premium service under AliExpress, which also had much better unit economics qoq.

其他業務：菜鳥收入268億元，yoy+16%，經調整EBITA 6億元，主要由跨境物流履約解決方案收入增長所帶動。本地生活收入162億元，yoy+12%，由高德和餓了麼訂單增長，市場營銷服務收入增長帶動，由於運營效率改善和業務規模提升，本地生活虧損同比大幅收窄。DME收入56億元，yoy+4%，主要由其演出賽事線上票務平臺的GMV及收入增長所帶動。

Other businesses: Cainiao, local services and DME drove up revenues

•Cainiao: revenue came to RMB26.8bn in the quarter (yoy +16%) and adjusted EBITA was RMB600m, driven mainly by cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions. 

•Local services: revenue was RMB16.2bn (yoy +12%) on order growth at Amap and Ele.me, as well as higher marketing service revenue. Losses narrowed substantially yoy on better operational efficiency and business scale expansion.

•Digital media and entertainment: revenue was RMB5.6bn (yoy +4%), mainly due to GMV and revenue growth in the online ticketing platform for shows and events.

雙重主要上市進展：公司已於8月28日完成香港聯交所和紐交所雙重主要上市。我們認爲雙重上市後公司更易於被納入“港股通”，有望帶動流動性提升。

Dual primary listings: Alibaba completed the process on 28 Aug for dual primary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange. We believe dual-listed stocks have a higher likelihood of inclusion in Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could mean better liquidity.

投資建議/Investment Ideas