美联储每年召开8次议息会议，会议纪要（Minutes）是对政策形成过程和政策背后逻辑的详细说明，一般在会议三周后公布。12月18日议息会议的决定是降息25bp（4.25-4.5%的政策利率目标区间）[1]。对于本次纪要，市场主要关注美联储内部分歧以及对后续经济和通胀展望，并基于此判断后续政策路径。
相较于11月会议，12月会议显示美联储官员从较为一致的政策立场转向明显分歧；从对通胀改善的信心转向对通胀风险的担忧；从强调继续降息转向需要放缓政策调整步伐。一是克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack投票不降息。纪要中解释了Hammack反对继续降息的理由：通胀回落进展不均衡（uneven）、就业市场依然强劲、当前联邦基金利率已经接近中性利率。二是19名与会者中（投票者+非投票者），有4位反对12月降息决策[2]，四季度通胀风险反复为主要原因。三是点阵图显示只有5位与会者认为25年应该降息3次或者更多。
President Hammack dissented because she preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4½ to 4¾ percent, in light of uneven progress in returning inflation to 2 percent, the strength of the economy and the labor market, and the state of financial conditions. In her view, with the current federal funds rate not far from neutral, holding the funds rate at a modestly restrictive stance for a time was appropriate to ensure that inflation returns to 2 percent in a timely fashion.
对于未来货币政策路径来说，12月纪要显示美联储对未来降息态度变得更加谨慎，并突出美联储官员对未来通胀走势把握不高；而11月的态度则明显更加积极。12月会议中，与会者认为美联储已经达到或者接近达到放缓降息节奏的时点，且大部分（substantial majority）与会者认为现阶段政策利率具有限制性，这使得美联储在决定未来政策路径时可以更有耐心（well positioned to take time）。点阵图显示美联储预计2025有2次降息（50bp），前值预计为4次（100bp）；2026预测降息2次共50bp，与前值预测持平；2027年降息1次。
12月纪要显示美联储对未来降息态度变得更加谨慎，而且突出了美联储官员对未来通胀走势把握不高；而11月的态度则明显更加积极。
12月纪要原文对未来政策路径的态度：
Participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing。
A substantial majority of participants observed that, at the current juncture, with its policy stance still meaningfully restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook。
A majority of participants noted that their judgments about this meeting's appropriate policy action had been finely balanced。
Some participants stated that there was merit in keeping the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged。
11月纪要原文对未来政策路径的态度：
participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time。
all participants viewed it as appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate。
关于中性利率，纪要显示一些（some）与会者认为在降息100bp后，政策利率已经接近中性利率水平；Hammack亦表示这是她反对继续降息的原因之一。从结果来看，12月会议中，美联储上调长期政策利率预期至3%（前值2.9%）。值得注意的是，纪要中虽然提到了中性利率，但并未给出具体中性利率水平的评估。我们倾向于认为，扩张性的财政政策、劳动生产率提升、储蓄率持续回落导致疫后美国中性利率有一定上行，这也是为何本轮经济在高利率环境下仍然保持韧性。参见我们前期报告《延续非典型着陆：2025年海外环境展望》。
Some participants observed that, with the target range for the federal funds rate having been lowered a total of 100 basis points with this meeting's decision, the policy rate was now significantly closer to its neutral value than when the Committee commenced policy easing in September。
In her view, with the current federal funds rate not far from neutral, holding the funds rate at a modestly restrictive stance for a time was appropriate to ensure that inflation returns to 2 percent in a timely fashion。
经济基本面方面，纪要显示与会者认为就业需求小幅放缓但整体保持稳健（stay solid）。但与会者对通胀风险的担忧显著增加，并强调可能的上行风险，这一点与11月会议有明显不同：一是四季度通胀数据强于预期，降低美联储对通胀持续回落的信心；二是美联储认为潜在的贸易和移民政策对通胀形成上行压力，这一点在鲍威尔12月会以后的新闻发布会中亦有提到；三是金融市场表现良好可能导致消费好于预期，不利于通胀回落。
Participants generally viewed recent readings as consistent with labor market conditions remaining solid, although labor strikes and the devastating hurricanes had been important sources of temporary fluctuations in the employment data。
"Participants continued to cite declines in job vacancies, the quits rate, and turnover as consistent with a gradual easing in labor demand。The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent in November, and both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio moved down a bit further。
Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased. As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy。
Several observed that the disinflationary process may have stalled temporarily or noted the risk that it could. A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation。
然后是美联储工作人员预测（Staff Economic Outlook）部分。一般来说，与会者（participant）预测更多基于个人判断和观点，直接影响政策决策；工作人员预测更偏技术性和模型，作为背景信息供决策者参考。未来经济展望方面，美联储工作人员认为经济保持稳健（solid），但考虑到潜在的政策影响，12月对2025年经济增长的预期略低于11月；就业方面，工作人员预计失业率可能在2025年小幅上升（a bit higher）但保持在自然失业率附近；通胀方面，工作人员将通胀回到2%目标水平的时点从2026年延后至2027年，并认为2025年通胀水平可能和2024年相当（remain at about the same rate），其中，贸易政策假设对通胀影响较大。此外，工作人员对通胀风险的评估从大致平衡（roughly balanced）转向倾向于向上（tilted to the upside）。
The staff projection at the December meeting was for economic conditions to stay solid. Given the elevated uncertainty regarding specifics about the scope and timing of potential changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies... real GDP growth was projected to be slightly slower than in the previous baseline forecast。
the unemployment rate was expected to be a bit higher but to remain near the staff's estimate of its natural rate
In the staff's baseline projection, the inflation forecast for 2024 was slightly higher than the one prepared for the previous meeting, reflecting upside surprises in some recent data. Inflation in 2025 was expected to remain at about the same rate as in 2024, as the effects of the staff's placeholder trade policy assumptions held inflation up. Thereafter, inflation was forecast to decline to 2 percent by 2027。
The staff continued to view the uncertainty around the baseline projection as within the range seen over the past 20 years... The staff judged that the risks around the baseline forecasts for employment and real GDP growth were balanced... The risks around the inflation forecast were seen as tilted to the upside。
9月FOMC会议以来，美国新发布的就业数据总体偏强，我们预计周五晚即将公布的12月非农数据亦保持韧性。鲍威尔9月启动50bp降息的初衷即是为了避免就业进一步走弱。因此，现实经济数据为美联储降息减速提供了合理条件。此外，季节性因素可能导致25年1月通胀保持粘性，亦不符合继续降息标准。因此，我们维持美联储1月会议中暂停降息，并在3月继续降息的判断。
一是，美国4季度就业数据总体偏强，11月非农较前值显著反弹；周度初请失业金人数亦保持低位，四季度周平均初请失业金人数从三季度的23.1万人回落至22.6万人；11月职位空缺率从4.6%回升至4.8%。二是，花旗经济意外指数在9月降息后亦总体保持正值。花旗意外指数(Citi Economic Surprise Index)衡量实际经济数据相对于市场预期表现的重要指标。当实际数据好于预期时为正值，差于预期时为负值。指数包含就业(如非农就业、失业率)、通胀(CPI、PPI、PCE)、经济活动(GDP、工业生产、零售销售)以及住房市场(新屋开工、成屋销售)等多个领域的关键数据。三是ISM制造业PMI指数四季度持续回升（虽然仍低于50），ISM服务业指数保持在扩张区间。
简单来看，纪要总体显示对通胀上行风险的担忧导致美联储将放缓降息节奏。虽然12月和11月会议仅相差1个月，但美联储官员政策态度发生较大改变。我们理解，一是美联储政策框架依然“数据依赖”，且对通胀走势把握不强，因此，市场交易重心可能依然会随着每次数据公布而摇摆；另一方面，美联储显然已经开始关注特朗普政策影响，且现阶段主要关注政策对通胀的上行压力，但关税影响具有两面性，因此建议关注后续美联储对关税负面冲击的解读。
在前期报告《特朗普第二任期政策及影响推演》及年度报告《延续非典型着陆：2025年海外环境展望》中，我们曾做过初步分析。
Fed Watch数据显示的25年1月降息25bp和不降息的概率分别为4.8%和95.2%，前值为6.4%和93.6%。同日公布的ADP数据降温，叠加美联储理事沃勒表示对未来通胀回落保持信心，10年期美债收益率保持在4.68%。在CNN报道称特朗普考虑援引国际紧急经济权力法（IEEPA）推进其关税计划后，美元指数上行至109.09，对全球供应链风险敞口较高的制造业公司股价回落，包括通用汽车、卡特彼勒和波音。标普500指数涨0.16%，道琼斯工业指数涨0.25%，纳斯达克指数跌0.06%。值得注意的是，在过去的一个月中基于偏高的PMI等数据和特朗普交易，10年期美债收益率有一轮明显上行，从2024年12月初的4.2%左右上行至2025年1月初的4.7%左右，这给美股和非美资产均带来一定扰动。
纪要公布当天，美债收益率收盘保持在4.68%；美元指数从108.54小幅回升至109.09。标普500指数涨0.16%，道琼斯工业指数涨0.25%，纳斯达克指数跌0.06%。
1.https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20241218.pdf
2.https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20241218.htm
郭磊 S0260516070002
陈嘉荔 S0260523120005
