达龙·阿西莫格鲁(Kamer Daron Acemoğlu),现任麻省理工学院经济学教授,以其在经济增长、政治经济学和劳动经济学等领域的研究而闻名。MIT OpenCourseWare(MIT OCW)是麻省理工学院推出的一项开放教育资源项目,旨在免费向全球分享MIT的课程内容。用户可以访问多个学科的课程资料,包括讲义、阅读材料、作业和视频讲座。该平台强调开放性,所有人无需注册即可获取数百门课程的高质量教育资源,支持自学。MIT OCW的目标是推动全球教育平等,鼓励更多人获取知识,尤其是那些无法接受正式高等教育的人。课程大纲网址可见:https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/14-452-economic-growth-fall-2016/pages/syllabus/,可以下载课程PPT。这门半学期的课程将介绍宏观经济建模,特别是经济增长模型。课程将重点关注经济增长模型及其实证应用,旨在阐明经济增长的机制、技术变革,以及各国收入和增长差异的来源。 本课程有多个目标:首先,让你熟悉一系列对宏观经济学至关重要的问题,这些问题不仅令人兴奋,也非常重要;其次,培养一些动态经济学中最重要的工具,这些工具不仅对宏观经济学有用,也适用于一般均衡理论、政治经济学、产业组织和合同理论等其他经济学子学科;最后,初步介绍经济增长中的一些关键实证问题。 教科书:Acemoglu, Daron. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton University Press, 2009. //德隆·阿西莫格鲁,2019,《现代经济增长导论》,唐志军、徐浩庆、谌莹译,中信出版社。1.经济发展的典型化事实及其近因与根本原因(Stylized Facts and Proximate and Fundamental Causes of Economic Development)本次课将简要介绍经济增长的典型化事实,并展示各国人均收入之间的巨大差异。我们将举例说明如何研究国家层面的特征(此处以民主为例)与经济增长之间的关系。此外,本次课还将简要讨论世界各国的收入分配为何如此不平等。[IMEG] Chapter 1.Helpman, Elhanan. The Mystery of Economic Growth. Belknap Press, 2004. ISBN: 9780674015722. [Preview with Google Books]Quah, Danny T. “Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs.” Journal of Economic Growth 2, no. 1 (1997): 27–59.Jones, Charles I. “On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 11, no. 3 (1997): 19–36.Acemoglu, Daron, Suresh Naidu, et al. “Democracy Does Cause Growth.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 20004, March 2014.Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson. “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, no. 4 (2002): 1231–94. (NBER Working Paper No. 8460)2–3.索洛增长模型简介(Introduction to the Solow Growth Model)索洛增长模型是宏观经济学中众多应用的基石,它标志着现代经济增长理论的开端。在此,我们将从该模型的基础概念入手,这些内容对你们中的许多人来说可能已经耳熟能详。[IMEG] Chapter 2.Solow, Robert M. Growth Theory: An Exposition. Oxford University Press, 2000. ISBN: 9780195109030.4.索洛模型与数据;增长核算、水平核算及相关事实(The Solow Model and the Data; Growth Accounting, Levels Accounting, and the Facts)本次课将使用索洛增长模型来解释我们在第一堂课中遇到的典型事实。在此过程中,我们还将讨论跨国研究中常用的实证策略以及增长核算的方法论。[IMEG] Chapters 3 and 4.Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer, and David N. Weil. “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, no. 2 (1992): 407–437. (NBER Working Paper No. 3541)Barro, Robert J., and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. Chapter 10 in Economic Growth. 2nd edition. MIT Press, 2003. ISBN: 9780262025539.Young, Alwyn. “The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, no. 3 (1995): 641–80.Hall, Robert, and Charles I. Jones. “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, no. 1 (1999): 83–116.Klenow, Peter J., and Andrés Rodriguez-Clare. “The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?” (PDF) In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997. Edited by Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg. MIT Press, 1997, pp. 73–103. ISBN: 9780262522427.Trefler, Daniel. “International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!” Journal of Political Economy 101, no. 6 (1993): 961–87.Diamond, Jared M. Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. W. W. Norton & Company, 1999. ISBN: 9780393317558.Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson. “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation.” American Economic Review 91, no. 5 (2001): 1369–401.5–6.新古典增长(Neoclassical Growth)新古典增长模型与索洛增长模型的不同之处在于前者考虑了消费者优化。本次课将首先介绍动态经济中消费者优化的基础,并讨论代表性家庭的假设。然后,我们将研究新古典增长模型中的均衡状态及其帕累托最优分配。最后,我们将从任意水平的资本存量出发,描述经济的稳态均衡和动态均衡路径。[IMEG] Chapters 5 and 6.Mas-Colell, Andreu, Michael D. Whinston, and Jerry R. Green. Chapters 4 and 16 in Microeconomic Theory. Oxford University Press, 1995. ISBN: 9780195073409.7.世代重叠与动态效率(Overlapping Generations and Dynamic Efficiency)动态宏观经济学的另一个核心模型是由保罗·萨缪尔森和彼得·戴蒙德提出的代际重叠模型。本次课将重点讨论这一模型。我们将首先探讨动态经济中的第一和第二福利定理,然后转向代际重叠模型。这将帮助我们理解代际重叠模型中动态低效的来源和条件。此外,我们还将讨论代际重叠模型的多种应用。[IMEG] Chapters 5 and 9.Bewley, Truman F. General Equilibrium, Overlapping Generations Models, and Optimal Growth Theory. Harvard University Press, 2007. ISBN: 9780674022881.Shell, Karl. “Notes on the Economics of Infinity.” Journal of Political Economy 79, no. 5 (1971): 1002–11.Diamond, Peter A. “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model.” (PDF - 1.8MB) The American Economic Review 55, no. 5 (1965): 1126–50.Jones, Larry. “Special Problems Arising in the Study of Economics with Infinitely Many Commodities.” In Models of Economic Dynamics: Proceedings of a Workshop held at the IMA, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA, October 24–28, 1983 (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems). Edited by Hugo F. Sonnenschein. Springer, 1986, pp. 184–205. ISBN: 9783540160984.8.新古典内生增长:资本积累、外部效应和人力资本(Neoclassical Endogenous Growth: Capital Accumulation, Externalities, and Human Capital)本次课将首先介绍一个基于新古典增长模型变体的持续增长模型。接下来,我将展示一个内生增长模型的首个示例,该模型因社会知识基础或技术储备随时间扩展而产生内生增长。最后,我们将探讨为何使用外部效应来模拟持续经济增长存在不足,以及在技术变革建模中会出现的特殊问题。本次课还将简要讨论人力资本在经济增长中的作用,并介绍一些有助于理解人力资本投资的基本模型。[IMEG] Chapters 10–12.Rebelo, Sergio. “Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 99, no. 3 (1991): 500–521. (NBER Working Paper No. 3325)Jones, Larry E., and Rodolfo E. Manuelli. “A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications.” Journal of Political Economy 98, no. 5 (1990): 1008–38.Romer, Paul M. “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 94, no. 5 (1986): 1002–37.Ben-Porath, Yoram. “The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings.” Journal of Political Economy 75, no. 4 (1967): 352–65.Nelson, Richard R., and Edmund S. Phelps. “Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth.” The American Economic Review 56, no. 1 / 2 (1966): 69–75.Acemoglu, Daron. “A Microfoundation for Social Increasing Returns in Human Capital Accumulation.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111, no. 3 (1996): 779–804.Jr. Lucas, Robert E. “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics 22, no. 1 (1988): 3–42.Acemoglu, Daron, and Joshua Angrist. “How Large are Human Capital Externalities? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws” (PDF). In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000. Edited by Ben S. Bernanke and Kenneth S. Rogoff. MIT Press, 2001, pp. 9–59. ISBN: 9780262523141. [Preview with Google Books]9–10.内生增长与投入品种类的扩展(Endogenous Growth with Expanding Input Varieties)本次课将介绍内生技术变革的首批模型,其中,持续的经济增长是由有目的的研发活动所推动的。我们还将简要讨论有关知识溢出、外部效应以及创新过程的一些证据。[IMEG] Chapter 13.Romer, Paul M. “Endogenous Technological Change.” Journal of Political Economy 98, no. 5 (1990): S71–S102. (NBER Working Paper No. 3210)Jones, Charles I. “R & D-Based Models of Economic Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 103, no. 4 (1995): 759–84.Bloom, Nicholas, Mark Schankerman, and John Van Reenen, J. “Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry.” Econometrica 81, no. 4 (2013): 1347–94.Jaffe, Adam B., Manuel Trajtenberg, and Rebecca Henderson. “Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, no. 3 (1993): 577–98.Kerr, William R. “Ethnic Scientific Communities and International Technology Diffusion.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 3 (2008): 518–37.Griliches, Zvi. “Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological Change.” Econometrica 25, no. 4 (1957): 501–22.———. “The Search for R&D Spillovers.” The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 94 (1992): 29–47. (NBER Working Paper No. 3768)Irwin, Douglas A., and Peter J. Klenow. “Learning by Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry.” Journal of Political Economy 102, no. 6 (1994): 1200–1227.11.相互依存:技术扩散、贸易与开放经济中的世界收入分配(Interdependences: Technology Diffusion, Trade and the World Income Distribution in an Open Economy)到目前为止,课堂上讨论的模型都是封闭经济模型。这些模型并不能很好地反映我们所处的世界,因为国际贸易和思想交流在当今社会中至关重要。本次课将概述因技术扩散和国际贸易而产生的主要国家间相互依存关系,重点讨论这些相互依存关系如何从根本上影响经济增长过程及世界收入分配。12.定向技术变革:内生技能偏向与内生劳动力增强的技术变革(Directed Technical Change: Endogenous Skill-Bias and Endogenous Labor-Augmenting Technological Change)本次课将介绍定向技术变革模型,这些模型不仅考虑总体技术变革,还关注技术变革的方向是内生的。通过这些模型,我们将讨论技术变革为何及何时可能偏向于技能(即有利于受过更多教育的工人),以及为什么我们可能预期技术变革会增强劳动力。13.竞争与技术变革(Competition and Technological Change)本次课将讨论竞争与技术变革之间的关系,并介绍与这一问题相关的一些证据。