祀戎之争：文武关系与中古王朝国家建设的成败
Can wars truly build states and rationalize their structures? This study focuses on the administrative origin of state-building and finds historical evidence that seems contrary to the idea of "war-making states". As states acquire more territory, they become increasingly vulnerable to setbacks in subsequent military activities, even when facing state failure or demise. Drawing upon geospatial data spanning from 906 to 969 AD during Chinas Five Dynasties and utilizing a difference-in-differences method, our study reveals that (1) states did not progressively expand in size due to continuous warfare, and (2) larger territorial acquisitions were associated with decreased probabilities of state survival, as expanding net territorial areas corre sponded to higher likelihoods of state failure in the following years. (3) The relationship between civilian and military systems within a state profoundly impacts the validity of the "war-making states" hypothesis. This study highlights that war makes states more susceptible to collapse if the military system dominates the civilian bureaucracy. Conversely, if the civilian system controls the military and forms a centralized regime, the "war-making states" hypothesis holds true. These findings revise the prevailing hypothesis of "war-making states" in historical sociology, showing that the "war making states" hypothesis depends on a specific political structure and bureaucratic system.
“国之大事，在祀与戎”。这句箴言似乎印证了频繁的地缘政治竞争在国家缔造过程中发挥了积极效果。根据晚唐五代时期(公元906年至969年)的空间地理数据，本研究强调了一种与其相左的因果机制——如果武官系统主导官僚体系，战争会使国家更容易崩溃；相反，如果文官控制了武官，“战争缔造国家”的假说更有可能成立。这些发现表明这一假说依赖于特定的政治结构和官僚体系。
Time: October 12, 2024 (Saturday) 10:00-11:00
Format: Online Tencent Conference
Language: English
Please add staff WeChat: haichengwang2002, note work / study organization and name. The staff will invite you into the event group. Conference number and password will be notified in the group.
海报｜穷象（注解：武士身上叠加了一张照片，一侧是远景的唐楼，一侧是前景的血迹）
排版 | 好菜·王
©Sociology理论志
