亚洲出口美国舱位暴跌17%！三天港口劳工罢工影响持续，海运价格恐将异动？

海洋情报局近期发布的一份通报带来了关于美国东海岸港口罢工事件的最新进展。据其所述，这场迅速得到解决的罢工无疑为市场注入了一剂强心针，有效缓解了各界对于供应链可能遭受进一步严重冲击的广泛忧虑。尽管如此，为期三天的劳工行动还是不可避免地给产能带来了一定程度的影响。

紧接着，丹麦一家知名的航运数据分析公司在其最新发布的分析报告中，就此次罢工事件可能造成的市场影响进行了深入剖析。报告指出，如果港口罢工持续，市场运力或将遭遇10%至17%的显著下滑。

海洋情报局在通报中进一步阐述了罢工的具体情况：“值得庆幸的是，这场长期以来悬而未决、令人揪心的美国东海岸港口罢工，终于在仅仅三天之后就画上了句号。

国际码头工人协会（ILA）的成员们于10月4日重返工作岗位，重新投入到繁忙的港口作业中。”然而，该局也提醒道，这并不意味着问题的彻底解决，因为罢工是以一项初步协议的形式告一段落的，而最终协议的达成还需等到1月15日。

“由于罢工时间相对较短，其实际影响远未达到市场最为悲观的预期。但不可否认的是，这短短三天的罢工还是造成了船只的排队等待现象，进而对始发地区的运力可用性产生了一定的负面影响。”海洋情报局在通报中补充道。

从最为乐观的角度来看，此次罢工的影响或许仅限于三天的短暂冲击。然而，现实情况却可能更为复杂。由于清理积压的船只和集装箱需要耗费一定的时间，因此其实际影响可能接近于一周的运力损失。

为了更直观地展示此次罢工对产能的具体影响，丹麦航运数据分析公司引用了相关数据（如图所示），并对亚洲出口商的相对产能损失进行了详细分析。该公司将3天和1周的影响与没有罢工的基线情景进行了全面对比，从而得出了更为准确的结论。

海洋情报局在通报中进一步指出：“如果我们假设影响仅限于在美国东海岸停留3天的最小船只，那么在第46周，从亚洲到美国东海岸的运力将下降17%。而如果需要整整一周的时间来清理积压的船只，那么我们在短时间内将面临高达40%的运力损失。”

同样地，分析还指出，对于从北欧到美国东海岸的地区，出口商也应做好在第44周减少14%产能的准备。如果清理拥堵需要整整一周的时间，那么产能损失将进一步增加至30%。而在地中海到美国东海岸的航线上，3天的影响会导致第43周的产能损失达到10%，而一周的影响则会增加到25%。

面对这一严峻形势，海洋情报公司首席执行官艾伦·墨菲表达了自己的看法：“航运公司是否会采取行动来缓解当前的运力短缺问题呢？从我们的观察来看，这种可能性似乎并不大。”他解释道，要加快船只速度以缓解运力短缺，特别是在较短的跨大西洋贸易中，将需要付出巨大的努力。

而且，在当前的市场环境下，罢工的结束可能意味着我们最近看到的费率下降趋势将继续延续下去。

因此，墨菲强调道：“出口商们，特别是来自亚洲、北欧和地中海地区的出口商们，应该为即将到来的暂时性的短期产能紧缩做好充分准备。”

Sea-Intelligence said the swift resolution of the US East Coast ports strike had alleviated concerns about further significant disruptions to supply chains, but the three-day labour action has still impacted capacity.

In a new analysis, the Danish shipping data analysis firm said the port strikes could result in a 10-17% capacity decline in the market.

"Fortunately, the long-feared strike in the US East Coast ports ended after just three days, and the members of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) went back to work in the ports on October 4," Sea-Intelligence said, although noting that this may not be the end of it, as the strike concluded with a tentative agreement and a deadline of January 15 for reaching a final agreement.

"As the strike was quite short-lived, the impact was much less than the worst fears, but nonetheless, the 3-day strike did cause vessels to queue, which will have a negative impact on the availability of capacity in origin regions," it added.

Sea-Intelligence noted that, in the most optimistic view, the impact is limited to the three days of striking. However, realistically, as it will take some time to clear the backlog of vessels and containers, the impact is likely to be closer to a week of capacity loss.

The Danish shipping data analysis company referenced data (shown in Figure 1) illustrating the relative capacity loss for Asian exporters. It compares a 3-day and a 1-week impact to a baseline scenario with no strike.

"Here, we see a 17% drop in capacity offered from Asia to the US East Coast in week 46 if the impact is limited to a minimum of vessels being stuck in the US East Coast for just 3 days. If it takes a full week to clear the vessel backlog, then we approach a 40% capacity loss for a short period," Sea-Intelligence said.

Similarly, the analysis noted that for North Europe to the US East Coast, exporters should prepare for a capacity reduction of 14% in week 44, rising to 30% if clearing the congestion takes a full week.

On the Mediterranean to the US East Coast, a 3-day impact leads to a 10% capacity loss in week 43, increasing to 25% for a week-long impact. 

"Will the shipping lines take action to mitigate this capacity shortfall? We find this to be quite unlikely," Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said.

He noted that doing so would require speeding up the vessels quite substantially – especially on the shorter Transatlantic trades – and this would be in a market environment where the ending of the strike would likely mean a continuation of the rate declines we have seen recently.

"Exporters, especially in Asia, North Europe, and the Mediterranean, should therefore prepare for a temporary, short-term crunch in capacity," Murphy added.