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Exam56物流货运代理网专注于国际货运代理、物流行业的深度研究和专项考试分析，帮助小伙伴提升行业的认知和积累。
根据Freightos最新出炉的一项深度分析，唐纳德·J·特朗普在美国总统大选中的胜选，其影响力或许早在他就职前的明年1月份便已悄然渗透至海运市场，掀起波澜。
回顾竞选期间，特朗普曾振臂高呼，计划对美国每年高达3万亿美元规模的进口商品中的绝大部分施加10%至20%的广泛关税壁垒，更对中国进口的商品祭出了最低60%的严苛关税大棒。
这家数字货运预订领域的权威平台Freightos指出，2018年，当特朗普初次宣布关税上调计划时，海运进口领域出现了前所未有的“抢跑”现象。托运商们为规避2019年初关税上调带来的成本激增，纷纷提前布局，加速进口步伐。
Freightos波罗的海指数所揭示的数据尤为引人注目：在2018年7月至11月的短短数月间，跨太平洋集装箱运价因海运量与库存的双重激增而实现了翻倍式的跃升。相比之下，2019年的运价与运量则呈现出回落态势。
对此，Freightos研究团队的领军人物Judah Levine发表了自己的见解：“此番，市场对于特朗普将兑现竞选承诺的预期，或许已足以成为海运需求与价格上扬的新引擎，推动其从现在开始稳步攀升。而一旦关税上调的靴子真正落地，这些趋势恐将愈演愈烈。”
Levine进一步指出，若此次选举结果再度给美国海运费率带来沉重压力，那么这一轮上涨的起点将是已经处于高位的最低价格。尽管随着旺季需求压力的逐渐消散，价格出现了显著的下滑，但东海岸的跨太平洋运费相较于7月份的高点仍低了近半，维持在约5200美元/FEU的水平。
值得注意的是，东海岸的运费已是去年同期的两倍有余，而西海岸的运费更是去年及2019年10月的三倍之多。与此同时，相较于今年4月触及的年内最低点，当前的运费也上涨了1000-2000美元/FEU。
Levine补充道：“集装箱市场整体费率攀升的根源在于红海危机的持续肆虐，这一危机不断吞噬着运力资源。然而，北美市场或许还面临着其他独特因素的困扰，导致与其他贸易通道相比，费率压力更为沉重。”
他列举了两大可能因素：一是托运商在过去数月中对特朗普胜选的预期已有所体现，这一趋势在选举尘埃落定后或将进一步加剧；二是东海岸和墨西哥湾港口工人罢工可能延期的最后期限（1月15日）即将到来，这也成为推动跨大西洋即期汇率上周飙升至2583美元/FEU（较上月增长35%，创2023年5月以来新高）的重要推手。
在北美地区，Levine还提及了鲁珀特王子港和加拿大最大集装箱港口温哥华所遭遇的困境。自本周初以来，这些港口的运营商已拒绝ILWU工人进入，以应对工会的罢工公告。目前，数艘船舶被困于港口，等待罢工的平息，而更多船舶则计划在不久后抵达。
他强调：“这些关键枢纽的中断可能会迫使西雅图-塔科马的交通发生改道与增加。同时，蒙特利尔的港口工人也已停止了该港口两个码头的运营，影响了40%的运力，成为这场持续争端的最新升级。”
在航空货运领域，中国至美国的航线价格在过去几周维持在约7.00美元/公斤的高位，创下去年新高，预示着这条航线即将迎来航空旺季的繁荣景象。
Levine表示，运往欧洲的价格则相对稳定在略低于4.00美元/公斤的水平，但仍低于去年12月达到的4.80美元/千克的历史高点。机票价格上涨的契机在于B2C电子商务量的激增，这导致了今年大部分时间内的运力紧张。然而，这股低成本进口洪流所面临的挑战却日益严峻。
Freightos研究负责人最后指出：“除了拜登政府提议关闭对大多数中国进口商品的最低豁免（尽管这一举措在任期结束前实现的可能性不大，而特朗普政府可能会尝试制定类似法案）外，欧盟委员会还对特朗普可能未能有效限制非法商品销售的行为展开了调查。”
他继续补充道：“在美国市场，包括电子商务在内的中国物流公司正加大仓库租赁力度，这或许表明一些平台正在积极筹备转型，以减少对小额贸易和航空货运的依赖。”
According to a new Freightos analysis, Donald J. Trump's victory in the US presidential election may start impacting the ocean freight market even before his January inauguration.
During his recent campaign, Trump proposed applying across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on most of the US$3 trillion worth of annual US imports and a minimum 60% tariff on all imports from China.
The digital freight booking platform noted that in 2018, Trump's announcement of tariff increases led to a significant pull forward of ocean imports as shippers rushed to bring in goods before the tariff increases went into effect in early 2019.
Freightos Baltic Index data showed that transpacific container rates doubled from July to November in 2018 as ocean volumes and inventories grew, with rates and volumes in 2019 muted in comparison.
"This time, anticipation that Trump will follow through on these campaign promises could be enough to spur some increase in ocean freight demand and rates starting now, with these trends possibly intensifying once tariff increases are actually announced," commented Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.
He noted that if pressure is renewed on US ocean freight rates due to the election, it will start from an already elevated floor.
Though prices have fallen significantly as peak season demand pressure has eased, transpacific rates to the East Coast are nearly 50% lower than their July high — at about US$5,200/FEU.
Levine noted that East Coast prices are more than double their level last year, and West Coast prices are more than triple what they were last year and in October 2019.
He said that rates are also US$1,000 - US$2,000/FEU higher than their lowest for the year reached this April.
"The root cause of elevated rates across the container market is the Red Sea crisis, which continues to absorb capacity. But there may be other factors at play unique to the North American market, keeping more pressure on rates compared to other trade lanes," the Freightos head of research added.
He noted that the first could be some pull forward of volumes in the last couple of months by shippers in anticipation of a possible Trump victory — a trend that could intensify now that the election is over.
The other is the looming January 15 deadline for a possible renewal of the port worker strike at East Coast and Gulf ports, which could also be contributing to transatlantic spot rates, which climbed to US$2,583/FEU last week, 35% higher than a month ago and at their highest level since May 2023.
Levine noted that in North America, port operators in Prince Rupert and Vancouver – Canada's largest container port – have locked out ILWU workers since the start of the week in response to the union's strike announcement and several vessels are currently stuck at the ports waiting out the strike, with others scheduled to arrive soon.
"Disruptions at these hubs could lead to diversions and increased traffic at Seattle - Tacoma. Meanwhile, port workers in Montreal have ceased operations at two of the port's terminals, impacting 40% of the port's capacity as the newest escalation in this ongoing dispute," he said.
In air cargo, China—N. America rates of around US$7.00/kg for the last couple of weeks—the high for last year—suggest that air peak season is upon us for this lane.
Levine said prices to Europe have stayed level just below US$4.00/kg, still below the US$4.80/kg high reached last December. The elevated starting point for air rates is due to the surge of B2C e-commerce volumes, which have kept capacity tight for much of the year. However, challenges to this flood of low-cost imports continue to mount.
"Besides the Biden administration's proposed closing of the de minimis exemption to most Chinese imports – which may be unlikely to happen before the end of its term, though the Trump administration could feasibly try to enact something similar – the European Commission has opened an investigation into Temu's possible failure to limit the sale of illegal goods," the Freightos head of research said.
"In the US, increases in warehouse leasing by Chinese logistics companies, including for e-commerce, may signal that some platforms are preparing for a shift away from de minimis and air cargo," he added.
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