全球空运量遇冷跌3%，中国竟然“背锅”？孟加拉国货运价却逆势大涨突破7美元！

在WorldACD市场数据的最新每周分析中，我们发现全球航空货运吨位在9月16日至22日的第38周内，相较于前一周下降了大约3%。这一变化主要是由于中国、韩国和智利等地的国定假日所引起的。

全球计费重量的3%下降，主要是由亚太地区的货运量减少所推动的。亚太地区的重量下降了6%，这一下降几乎占据了全球总重量下降的四分之三（73%）。WorldACD的分析指出，亚太地区的这一下降主要是由于东亚地区中秋节或丰收节假期的季节性影响。今年的这些假期恰好落在第38周，即9月16日至18日。

在亚太地区的吨位下降中，有80%是由于韩国和中国的产量暂时下降造成的。韩国的产量下降了33%，占亚太地区产量下降的50%；而中国的产量下降了6%，占亚太地区总产量下降的30%。

值得注意的是，去年的中秋节假期是在第39周（9月28日至29日），这导致了单周同比航空货运比较的扭曲。

WorldACD的报告还指出，今年第38周的全球吨位仅比去年第38周高出6%，而2024年大部分时间的同比增长率都是两位数。

此外，第38周全球吨位进一步下降的12%是由于从中美洲和南美洲（CSA）出发的计费重量下降了6%。这几乎完全可以解释为智利的船舶吨位在9月18日至20日的国家法定节假日期间下降了近50%。

该分析基于WorldACD数据涵盖的每周超过45万笔交易，表明如果我们消除或“纠正”亚太地区和CSA的这些季节性事件的影响，全球航空货运吨位在第38周实际上将保持不变。

报告还指出，第38周的吨位下降是季节性波动，而非市场的整体疲软。这一点得到了持续强劲（在某些情况下是上升的）费率趋势的支持，这主要是由亚太和中东及南亚（MESA）原产地区推动的。亚太地区的电子商务繁荣和中东地区的紧张局势是推动这一趋势的主要因素。

第38周的全球平均利率持平，WoW，除了非洲（增长4%）、亚太地区（增长1%）和MESA（增长4%，被其他主要来源地区的轻微负利率趋势所抵消，包括根据现货和合同利率的全部市场平均值，除北美外的2%的下降。

此外，除亚太地区（每公斤3.42美元，同比增长22%）和除MESA（2.94美元，同比上涨62%）外的平均价格今年创下历史新高，甚至高于2023年第四季度（Q4）的峰值，当时除亚太地区外的12月平均价格为每公斤3.33美元。

WorldACD表示，由于红海航运袭击造成的海运供应链中断，MESA原产地的现货价格一直居高不下。孟加拉国继续面临持续的政治不稳定和物流中断带来的额外挑战。

因此，孟加拉国出口的现货价格持续上涨，在第38周创下新高。美国的现货价格为每公斤7.83美元（上涨4%，WoW），是去年同期水平的三倍多（上涨213%），欧洲为每公斤5.45美元（WoW上涨7%，同比上涨175%）。

报告称：“这些进一步的增长使孟加拉国对美国的即期汇率成为世界上任何航空货运市场中最高的。”

WorldACD补充道：“持续的中断，包括达卡机场货物安检能力的中断，似乎将给孟加拉国的即期价格带来进一步的上行压力。”

Global air cargo tonnages dipped by around 3% in week 38 (September 16-22), week on week (WoW), with the declines caused mainly by national holidays in China, South Korea, and Chile, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data.

The worldwide 3% fall in flown chargeable weight was mainly driven by Asia Pacific origins, where a 6% WoW decline in tonnages was responsible for almost three-quarters (73%) of the overall global decrease.

WorldACD noted that this Asia Pacific drop was mainly due to the seasonal effects of mid-autumn or harvest festival holidays in various parts of East Asia—this year, they took place from September 16 to 18, within week 38.

The majority (80%) of the drop in Asia Pacific tonnages is explained by a temporary dip in volumes from South Korea (decline of 33% WoW, or 50% of the WoW Asia Pacific decline) and China (drop 6% WoW, or 30% of the WoW Asia Pacific overall decline).

Last year, the mid-autumn festival holidays took place in week 39 ( September 28-29), thus skewing single-week year-on-year (YoY) air cargo comparisons.

The report noted that worldwide tonnages in week 38 this year were just 6% higher than in week 38 last year, compared with double-digit percentage YoY increases throughout most of 2024.

WorldACD said a further 12% of the global decrease in tonnages in week 38 this year was caused by a 6% WoW fall in chargeable weight flown from Central & South America (CSA) origins — which is, in turn, almost fully explained by a near 50% drop of tonnages WoW ex-Chile, due to the country's 18-20 September national holidays, including Independence Day.

The analysis — which was based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data — indicates that if we eliminate or "correct for" the effects of these seasonal events in Asia Pacific and CSA, global air cargo tonnages would actually be flat, WoW, in week 38.

Meanwhile, the report noted that this interpretation that the tonnage decline in week 38 is a seasonal blip rather than an overall weakening of the market is further supported by the continuing strong, and in some cases increasing, rates trends, mainly driven by Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origin regions, thanks to the ongoing e-commerce boom and continued (and increasing) tensions in the Middle East region, respectively.

Average global rates in week 38 were flat, WoW, with increasing rates ex-Africa (up 4%), Asia Pacific (up 1%) and MESA (up 4%), offset by slightly negative rate trends for the other main origin regions, including a 2% drop ex-North America, based on a full-market average of spot and contract rates.

Average rates ex-Asia Pacific (US$3.42 per kilo, up 22% YoY) and ex-MESA (US$2.94, up 62% YoY) are reaching record highs for this year and are even higher than the fourth-quarter (Q4) peak of 2023 when average rates in December ex-Asia Pacific stood at US$3.33 per kilo.

WorldACD said spot rates from MESA origins have been highly elevated for much of this year, bolstered by the disruptions to ocean freight supply chains caused by the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, but Bangladesh continues to face additional challenges resulting from ongoing political instability and logistics disruptions.

As a result, spot rates ex-Bangladesh keep on increasing, reaching new highs in week 38 of US$7.83 per kilo to the US (up 4%, WoW)—more than three times their levels this time last year (up 213%)—and US$5.45 per kilo to Europe (WoW up 7%, YoY up 175%).

"These further increases make Bangladesh to US spot rates among the highest of any air cargo market in the world," the report said.

"And continuing disruptions, including to airport cargo security screening capabilities in Dhaka, look set to place further upward pressure on spot rates from Bangladesh," WorldACD added.