美国三天港口罢工影响多大？Flexport权威报告出炉，航空货运稳如泰山？

Flexport近期发布的一项深度分析揭示了一个引人注目的现象：尽管美国东部沿海及墨西哥湾区域港口的劳工罢工曾一度引发广泛关注，但其对航空货运领域造成的实际冲击却相对温和。

这次由国际码头工人协会（ILA）与美国海事联盟有限公司（USMX）成员发起的劳工行动，其持续时间仅为72小时，不仅早于预期画上了句号，还伴随着一份关于薪资问题的初步和解协议的达成。

根据这份于10月4日签署的协议，USMX承诺在接下来的六年里，为ILA成员提供高达61.5%的薪资增长，并将现有的主合同有效期延长至2025年1月15日。在此期间，双方还将就自动化技术的引入及其他关键议题展开深入谈判。

Flexport在一份官方声明中，以一种相对轻松却又不失严谨的语调阐述了这一事件的影响：“得益于国际劳工组织成员的快速和解，此次罢工的短暂性有效限制了其对美国宏观经济的潜在冲击。试想，若罢工势头延续至下周，其连锁反应无疑将更为剧烈，对经济造成的波澜也将难以估量。”

“尽管更广泛的经济波动得以避免，但不可否认的是，这次罢工还是对海洋运输与航空货运市场产生了直接的、即时的效应。”Flexport进一步补充道。

针对尚未完成预订的海运货物，Flexport指出，在罢工期间，前往美国东海岸的舱位预订服务依然开放，且预计这一状态将持续保持。唯一的小插曲是，通过洛杉矶港前往美国东海岸的铁路线路暂时受限，但Flexport乐观预计，这些线路也将迅速恢复运作。

“对于急需运输的货物而言，利用西海岸的铁路网络或在洛杉矶进行转运，依然是规避美国东海岸潜在拥堵风险的上策。”Flexport建议道，同时提醒道，尽管前期报告指出罢工每持续一天，港口拥堵状况就会加剧5至10天，但这并不应影响那些尚未启航的货物计划。

总体而言，Flexport强调：“航空货运领域受到的影响相对有限。”

然而，值得注意的是，在罢工期间，部分托运商出于避免海运延误的考虑，转而选择了空运方式，这一行为短期内推动了航空货运服务需求的激增，特别是来自中东及南亚（MESA）地区的需求尤为显著。

“随着罢工问题的圆满解决，托运商预计将重新回归海运，以追求更具成本效益的运输方案，从而稳定对空运服务的需求。”Flexport的分析报告最后总结道，为这场风波画上了一个圆满的句号。

A new Flexport analysis shows that the strike at ports on the US East and Gulf coasts has had limited impact on air freight.

The labour actions lasted only 72 hours, ending sooner than expected. Members of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance, Ltd. (USMX) reached a tentative agreement on wages and agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025.

The freight forwarder noted that under this tentative agreement — reached on October 4 — the USMX will provide the ILA with a 61.5% wage increase over six years. 

The two parties have extended their existing master contract until January 15, 2025, and will negotiate on automation and other issues in the meantime. 

"The relatively short duration of the ILA strike means that the impact on the broader US economy has been limited. If the strike had continued into next week, the ripple effects could have been massive," Flexport said in a statement.

"While the broader economic impact has been averted, the strike has made an immediate impact on the ocean and air markets," it added.

Flexport noted that in terms of ocean cargo not yet booked, during the strike, bookings to the US East Coast remained open, and we expect them to stay open with the only limitations were rail routings to the US East Coast via LA, but we expect these will soon resume operations as well.

"If you have urgent cargo, routing via the West Coast on rail or transloading in LA remains your best option to avoid potential congestion on the US East Coast. Early reports indicated that each day of the strike would've added 5-10 days of port congestion," it added, although emphasizing that congestion shouldn't impact cargo that hasn't sailed yet.

"On the whole, air freight saw a limited impact," Flexport said.

However, it noted that during the strike, some shippers shifted to air freight to avoid delays in ocean freight. This led to a temporary surge in demand for air cargo services, especially from the Middle East/South Asia (MESA). 

"With the strike now resolved, shippers will revert back to ocean freight for cost-effective transportation, stabilizing demand for air freight," the analysis added.