美国港口罢工危机解除！WCI全球海运价格下跌4%，大西洋航线独自领跑！

德鲁里的综合世界集装箱指数（WCI）全球费率下降了4%，但亚洲到欧洲和中国到美国西海岸的费率分别下降了8%和5%，只有大西洋贸易在两个方向上的费率都只增长了1%。

在10月初美国东海岸港口罢工仅持续三天后，对供应链再次中断的担忧已经消散。

Linerlytica报道称：“随着美国的不确定性现在已经消除，运费在中国黄金周假期后有望恢复下降，因为随着今年空白航班的减少，过剩的运力继续增加。”。

在贸易方程式的供应方面，造船厂的新吨位流量有增无减，船舶经纪人Braemar估计，自2021年1月1日以来，共订购了1435艘集装箱船，“其中58%的订购船舶被归类为超巴拿马型或5100标准箱以上。该经纪人表示，如果对订购的标准箱容量进行相同的计算，那么自2021年以来订购的超巴拿马型容量的百分比为89%。”。

Braemar预测，由于订购的大多数船只都是新巴拿马型的大型船只，而较小的区域性船只订购并没有跟上其较大的同类船只的步伐，因此将出现一系列船只。

Braemar在其最新的市场简报中表示：“供需曲线突显了大型和小型船舶行业之间的差异。由于大多数新造船投资主要集中在大型船舶上，特别是新巴拿马型船舶，而区域船舶的购买活动较少，我们只能假设，大量被取代的后巴拿马型船舶正在向部署小型船舶的区域贸易级联。”。

鉴于产能供应的增加已经超过了需求，而且通过开普省进入亚欧贸易的部署现在已经确定，前景似乎再次转向有利于托运人。

过去，港口拥堵严重制约了运力，船舶排队等待泊位，集装箱停留时间增加，堵塞了供应链。然而，即使是这条恢复费率的路线似乎也在逐渐消失，Linerlytica报告称，在为期三天的停工后，即使是美国环保局港口的积压也在迅速清理。

供应链可见性公司Beacon的最新月度拥堵报告显示，主要贸易通道和主要港口几乎没有瓶颈，这些港口的吞吐量超过1000万标准箱。

Beacon表示，9月份孟加拉国与天气有关的中断对上海和宁波港口的影响有限。

灯塔报告称：“XL港口（年吞吐量超过1000万标准箱的港口）已经证明了它们的弹性和吸收此类事件大部分影响的能力。尽管天气相关的中断，宁波和上海港口在9月份的平均船舶锚泊和集装箱停留时间都低于8月份。”。

Beacon分析锚地船舶时间、泊位时间和集装箱停留时间，以评估港口拥堵程度，该分析可用于评估拥堵导致延误和容量问题的倾向，从而导致费率上涨。

根据Beacon的说法，中型港口最有可能“感受到无休止的供应链危机的影响”。

在容量在50万至400万标准箱之间的港口，船舶的平均锚泊时间比大型港口的效率低。

Beacon表示：“9月份，十个最拥堵的港口中有七个（按停泊时间计算）属于这一类。这些港口的拥堵程度也更加波动。从过去六个月的最低和最高月平均停泊时间的差异来看，中型港口占据了前三位：查尔斯顿（3.5天）、吉大港（3.0天）和德班（2.8天）”。

Drewry’s composite World Container Index (WCI) declined by 4% for global rates, but the Asia to Europe and China to US West Coast rates fell by 8% and 5% respectively with only the Atlantic trades showing a meagre 1% rate increase in both directions.

Fears of renewed supply chain disruption have dissipated after the US East Coast port strike at the beginning of October only lasted three days.

“With the USEC uncertainty now out of the way, freight rates are poised to resume their decline after the Chinese Golden Week holidays as excess capacity continues to build up as blanked sailings are reduced this year,” reported Linerlytica.

On the supply side of the trade equation the flow of new tonnage from shipyards is continuing unabated with shipbroker Braemar estimating a total of 1,435 container ships having been ordered since 1 January 2021, and “58% of those vessels ordered are classed as post-Panamax or 5,100 teu plus. When looking at the same calculation for the teu capacity ordered, the percentage of post-Panamax capacity ordered since 2021 is 89%,” said the broker.

Braemar is forecasting a cascading of vessels as the majority of vessels ordered are larger ships of the neo-panamax types, while the smaller regional ship ordering has not kept up with their larger cousins.

“The supply and demand curve highlights a divergence between the big and small ship sectors. With the majority of the newbuilding investment strongly focussed on larger ships, especially neo-Panamax types, and less buying activity in regional ships, we can only assume that significant cascading of displaced post- Panamax ships to regional trades deploying smaller vessel sizes is in the pipeline,” said Braemar in its latest market briefing.

Given the increase in the supply of capacity has outstripped demand, and that the deployment into the Asia to Europe trade via the Cape has now settled, the outlook seems to be turning in favour of shippers again.

Port congestion has in the past been a significant curb on capacity, with vessels queueing for berths, and container dwell times rising and clogging supply chains. However, even this route to rate restoration appears to be fading, with Linerlytica reporting that even the backlog at USEC ports is clearing fast after the three-day stoppage.

Supply chain visibility company Beacon’s latest monthly congestion report shows few bottlenecks in the major trade lanes and at major ports, those with volumes of more than 10 million teu.

Beacon said that the weather-related disruption in Bangladesh during September had a limited effect on both Shanghai and Ningbo ports.

“XL ports (those with an annual throughput greater than 10 million teu) have proven their resilience and ability to absorb much of the impact of such events. Despite the weather-related disruptions, both Ningbo and Shanghai ports recorded lower average vessel anchor and container dwell times in September compared to August,” said the Beacon report.

Beacon analyses vessel times at anchorage, time spent at the berth and container dwell times to assess the levels of congestion at ports, and that analysis, can be used to assess the propensity for congestion to cause delays and capacity issues, leading to rate hikes.

According to Beacon medium sized ports are the most likely to “feel the effects of the endless series of supply chain crises”.

Average anchor times at ports with volumes of between 500,000 and 4 million teu saw average vessel anchor times that were less efficient than their larger counterparts.

“In September, seven of the ten most congested ports (by anchor time) fall into this category. These ports also see more volatility in congestion levels. Looking at the difference between the min and max monthly average anchor times over the past six months, medium sized ports occupy the top three spots: Charleston (3.5 days), Chittagong (3.0 days) and Durban (2.8 days),” said Beacon.