前三季度大赚207.5亿美元！全球货代巨头德迅海陆空业务全面开花，但CEO为何唱衰后市？

Kuehne+Nagel近期预测，受全球航运网络频繁遭遇挑战的影响，零售商与制造商纷纷采取前瞻性策略，提前大量进口度假必需品，以期规避潜在风险，这一行为预计将导致年底的货运量呈现下滑趋势。

出于对供应链潜在梗阻的深切忧虑，零售商们未雨绸缪，加大了进口力度，旨在充实库存，确保货架充盈。作为全球货运代理领域的佼佼者，Kuehne+Nagel在航运旺季到来前的细致观察中，敏锐捕捉到了这一“抢跑式装载”的现象。

这一重要信息，是在Kuehne+Nagel发布其第三季度及前九个月的业绩报告时同步披露的。数据显示，自2024年1月至9月，该集团累计实现净营业额高达180亿瑞士法郎（折合207.5亿美元），息税前利润达到12亿瑞士法郎，同时，公司还收获了9.15亿瑞士法郎的收益。

具体到第三季度，该集团的净营业额更是实现了19%的显著增长，攀升至64.9亿瑞士法郎（折合74.8亿美元），而其收益也录得了6%的增长，达到3.39亿瑞士法郎（折合3.9亿美元）。报告指出：“2024年第三季度，我们的关键业绩指标均展现出积极态势，息税前利润与利润水平均自疫情结束后首次实现了环比与同比的双重增长。”

在海运物流领域，Kuehne+Nagel第三季度的净营业额达到了26.43亿瑞士法郎，同比大幅增长36%，息税前利润更是达到了2.56亿瑞士法郎。而在航空物流业务板块，该季度的净营业额为18.1亿瑞士法郎，同比增长20%。然而，尽管业务规模持续扩大，该板块的息税前利润却出现了12%的下滑，降至1.2亿瑞士法郎。

值得一提的是，在2024年的前九个月里，Kuehne+Nagel的航空货运量达到了150万吨，同比增长6%，其中，易腐货物的增长尤为显著。而在第三季度，得益于电子商务的蓬勃发展，K+N的航空货运量同比增长了6.6%。

在道路物流方面，Kuehne+Nagel的净营业额为8.59亿瑞士法郎，在7月至9月期间实现了3%的增长。尽管如此，该季度的息税前利润却下降了15%，至2200万瑞士法郎。

面对这一系列复杂多变的市场动态，Kuehne+Nagel的首席执行官Stefan Paul表示，公司预测其航空货运量将实现较低个位数的百分比增长。他坦言：“今年第四季度的旺季显得格外平静，这与我们年中时更为乐观的预期形成了鲜明对比。”

Paul进一步指出，这一预期调整部分反映了前期装载的规模效应，以及随着海运中断状况的缓解，紧急需求的减少。同时，一些关键领域如德国汽车的实际需求也低于预期。

他强调，由于供应链的不确定性显著增加，托运人已在第三季度开始积极预装货物。这些不确定性主要源自美国东部和海湾港口遭遇的袭击，以及胡塞武装持续袭击红海商船，迫使南非周边航线进行改道。Paul说：“前期装载是对从红海改道引发的供应链中断、美国港口罢工潜在影响以及地缘政治不确定性的直接反应。”

最后，Paul补充道：“随着美国大选及其对贸易政策潜在影响的日益凸显，这些不确定性因素仍然持续存在。”

Kuehne+Nagel expects lower freight volumes to end the year after retailers and manufacturers preemptively imported holiday goods due to global shipping disruptions.

The world's largest freight forwarder observed "front-loading" before the peak shipping season, as retailers increased imports to stock their shelves due to concerns about potential supply-chain disruptions.

Kuehne+Nagel made the announcement as it reported its third-quarter and nine-month performance. From January to September 2024, the group achieved a net turnover of CHF 18.0 billion (US$20.75 billion), EBIT of CHF 1.2 billion (US$1.38 billion) and earnings of CHF 915 million (US$1.05 million).

For the third quarter, net turnover rose 19% to CHF 6.49 billion (US$7.48 billion), while earnings were up 6% to CHF 339 million (US$390 million).

"In the third quarter of 2024, key indicators developed in a positive manner. For the first time since the end of the pandemic, EBIT and profit in the third quarter of 2024 both increased quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year," it said.

In terms of sea logistics, net turnover amounted to CHF 2.643 billion for the third quarter, up 36% year-on-year, and EBIT stood at CHF 256 million, 9% higher compared to the same period in 2023.

Net turnover in the business unit air logistics amounted to CHF 1.81 billion, up 20% year-on-year in the third quarter. However, EBIT was down 12% to CHF 120 million for the period.

During the first nine months of 2024, the unit managed 1.5 million tonnes of air freight, a 6% increase compared to the previous year. The majority of this growth occurred in the perishable goods segment.

In the third quarter, K+N's air cargo volumes increased by 6.6% year-on-year, largely driven by e-commerce activities.

Kuehne+Nagel said road logistics recorded a net turnover of CHF 859 million, up 3% in the July to September period, although EBIT was down 15% to CHF 22 million for the third quarter.

Stefan Paul, chief executive of Kuehne + Nagel, stated that the company expects its air cargo volumes to grow by a low single-digit percentage compared to last year. 

"We see a muted peak season this year in quarter four," Paul said. "This contrasts with our more bullish expectation at mid-year."

The Kuehne+Nagel chief noted that this expectation "partially reflects the extent of front-loading earlier in the year, the reduced potential emergency demand as sea freight disruption has eased, and the actual demand in some key segments, such as the German auto sector, which fell short of expectations."

Paul pointed out that shippers have started front-loading shipments during the third quarter due to increased uncertainties in the supply chain. These uncertainties stem from a strike at US East and Gulf ports and ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, which are causing rerouting around South Africa.

"Front-loading was a reaction by supply chain disruption sparked by the rerouting away from the Red Sea, potential fallout from port strike actions in the US and geopolitical uncertainties," he said.

"These uncertainties persist with the US election now in focus and its potential impact on trade policy," Paul added.