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尽管近期亚欧贸易的海运费率经历了显著的下滑趋势，航运公司在2024年的盈利前景却依旧稳健。这一预测背后，是全球航运网络在多线路并进中的整体韧性展现，即便在其他东西航线和南北市场中面对着不小的挑战与压力，航运企业仍旧保持着正向盈利的态势。
特别值得注意的是，在跨太平洋这一繁忙的航线上，航运公司目前的单个集装箱盈利水平仍然可观，大约维持在2000美元左右。这一数据无疑为航运公司的全年财报增添了一抹亮色。此外，即便考虑到本季度可能出现的收益下滑，航运公司在前三个季度累积的业绩仍然足以支撑其净收入实现约10%的增长。
然而，并非所有航线都一帆风顺。Upply在最近的一份深度分析报告中指出，经过好望角的亚欧航线运费正经历着“断崖式下跌”，使得航运公司在这些特定航线上的运营已经滑落到盈亏平衡点以下。
报告进一步指出，2024年的第四季度对于航运公司而言，可能会成为一段艰难时期，因为目前最受欢迎的亚洲至北欧航线（经由好望角）的FAAK现货价格已经跌破每40英尺集装箱3000美元的关键门槛。
与此同时，Upply的亚欧航线运费指数（涵盖了现货与合同费率）自8月以来也呈现出明显的下行趋势，这一变化无疑加剧了市场对于航运业盈利能力的担忧。更为严峻的是，对航运公司至关重要的亚欧市场在最不合时宜的时刻“开始出现裂痕”。
随着年度合同谈判的全面铺开，以及2025年服务时间表的制定工作逐步推进，市场却未能见到任何实质性的服务质量提升，这无疑为航运公司的未来之路增添了更多不确定性。
尽管Upply预计航运公司的盈利能力将在未来某个时刻承压，但它认为这一挑战更可能推迟到明年晚些时候才真正显现。报告指出，亚欧/好望角市场的突然崩溃与欧洲需求持续不振有着密切关系。
在所有参与调查的航运公司中，当前的货运量普遍处于中等水平，而基于预订的第四季度预测则暗示，这一状况在短期内难以实现根本性转变。
雪上加霜的是，新的运力仍在不断涌入市场，使得亚欧航线上出现了过多的巨型新船，进一步加剧了供需失衡。Upply强调，托运人已不再对服务质量的恢复抱有幻想，因此他们更倾向于以尽可能低的价格争取舱位，即便这意味着承运人可能会因此蒙受损失。
值得注意的是，好望角航线如今已成为亚欧集装箱航运市场不可或缺的一部分，而苏伊士运河的中断则未在航运公司与托运人的谈判中被提及，因为它已不再引发任何意外或市场紧张情绪。
Upply在其分析中直言不讳地指出：“在当前阶段，除非遭遇疫情、战争或气候灾难等不可预见的重大事件，否则我们难以看到任何能够阻止亚欧航线运费继续崩盘的因素。”
尽管有观点认为，恢复使用苏伊士运河可能会为运费带来一定程度的提振，但报告认为这一风险“过于巨大”。Upply表示，目前尚不清楚托运人是否会接受这一提议，因为一旦航运公司将所承运的货物置于已知风险之中，它们将承担起相应的责任。毕竟，红海地区仍被国际机构正式认定为战区。
在这样的背景下，MSC（地中海航运）的表现尤为引人注目。分析指出，当市场环境变得艰难时，MSC往往能够展现出超越平均水平的表现。Upply表示：“凭借其庞大的规模和对运营成本的严格控制，MSC从一开始就被设计为能够从容应对逆境的企业。其运营成本至今仍是市场上最低的之一，这在一定程度上得益于其船舶上广泛安装的洗涤器。”
此外，MSC还控制着“价值链的很大一部分”，因为它拥有自己的港口码头，而竞争对手则过度依赖外部服务提供商。Upply指出：“随着航运联盟的重组即将到来，MSC是唯一一家在ZIM的协助下能够以自己的名义提供全球班轮网络的航运公司。除非其增长受到国家或其他类似机构的阻碍，否则看起来没有什么能够阻挡MSC像压路机一样滚滚向前的步伐。”
分析还补充道：“更为重要的是，MSC正坐拥着其在新冠肺炎疫情期间积累起来的丰厚财政储备，并且自那时以来并未动用太多。”这无疑为MSC在未来的市场竞争中提供了更为坚实的后盾。
Shipping companies will remain in profit in 2024 despite recent sharp declines in ocean freight rates in the Asia-Europe trade.
Transportation and supply chain technology company Upply said as other routes continue apart from the Asia-Europe route, other east-west routes and north-south markets, although they are under pressure, are continuing to make money.
On transpacific routes, in particular, the shipping companies are still able to make a profit of around US$2,000 per container at the moment.
The results obtained by the shipping companies during the first three quarters should also be enough to enable them to increase their net income by about 10%, even taking into account the decline they are experiencing in the current quarter.
Upply said in a new analysis that freight rates are "falling fast" on Asia-Europe routes via the Cape of Good Hope, and shipping companies are now operating below break-even levels on these routes.
"The fourth quarter of 2024 promises to be a difficult one for the shipping companies in terms of profitability," the analysis said, adding that FAAK spot rates for cargo loaded on Asia-North Europe routes going around the Cape of Good Hope, which is currently the most used itinerary, are below the US$3,000/40' mark.
Upply's freight rate index for Asia-Europe routes, which merges spot and contract rates, also shows a marked fall from August on.
The analysis noted that the Asia-Europe market, which is of great importance to the shipping companies, is "starting to crack at the worst time" — just as the annual contract negotiations are starting to get into full swing and 2025 service schedules are being drawn up without any convincing improvement in quality having been offered to date.
Upply said it had been expected that shipping companies' profitability would come under pressure, but this was expected to happen later, sometime next year.
The report noted that the Asia-Europe/Cape of Good Hope market started to collapse so suddenly as European demand is still going in the wrong direction.
It said that current cargo volumes are at mediocre levels at all the shipping companies surveyed, and reservations-based forecasts for the full fourth quarter indicate that the situation will change in the short term.
Fresh capacity is also continuing to come onto the market, with too many giant new vessels on Asia-Europe routes.
"Shippers no longer believe that service quality will be restored. They want, therefore, to buy space at the lowest possible price, even though they know sometimes that carriers are operating at a loss," Upply said.
It noted that the Cape of Good Hope route is now part of the normal functioning of the Asia-Europe container shipping market, and the disruption affecting the Suez Canal does not figure in the negotiations between shipping companies and shippers since it no longer generates any surprise or associated market tension.
"At this stage, unless there is an unforeseeable major event like a pandemic, war or climate catastrophe, we cannot see that anything will stop the freight rate collapse on Asia-Europe routes," Upply said in its analysis.
The report noted that resuming use of the Suez Canal could, however, improve freight rates a little, but the risks are "too great."
"It is not at all sure that shippers would agree to this, and the shipping companies would be liable if they exposed the merchandise in their care to known risks, given that the Red Sea is still officially recognised by the international institutions as a war zone," Upply said.
Meanwhile, the analysis said when conditions get rough, MSC generally does better than average.
"The company has been designed from the start to face adversity, thanks to its size and tight control of its operating costs, which are still among the lowest on the market, thanks partly to the extensive installation of scrubbers on its ships," Upply said.
It added that the company also currently controls a "large part of the value chain" since it relies on its own port terminals, whereas its competitors remain too dependent on outside service providers.
"With the impending reconfiguration of the shipping alliances, MSC is the only shipping company which, with assistance from ZIM in the transpacific market, is able to offer under its own name, a planet-wide liner network. Unless its growth is obstructed by the state or other comparable bodies, nothing looks likely to halt the company's steamroller-like progress," Upply said.
"Moreover, it is entering the battle with comfortable financial reserves, which it was able to amass during the Covid period and which it has not finally drawn on much since then," the analysis added.
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