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当一周内的航班数量超越了既定的每周服务频次，海面上便会出现船只拥堵的景象，其严重程度已然攀升至与新冠肺炎疫情肆虐时期的高峰相媲美的境地。
海洋情报局从网络设计的专业视角出发，为我们揭示了这样一个事实：理论上，每艘深海班轮服务都会遵循既定的节奏，每周仅有一艘船从始发港扬帆起航。然而，在纷繁复杂的现实世界中，我们却不难发现，同一家航运公司往往会在同一周内派遣多艘船只，提供着看似重复却又不可或缺的服务。
这一现象的背后，或许隐藏着诸多缘由。有时，它源于船舶的意外延误，那些未能如期而至的船只只能无奈地滑入下一周的航行计划之中；有时，它则是因为船舶资源的短缺，航运公司不得不采取权宜之计，用两艘较小的船舶来替代原本计划中的一艘大型船舶；当然，也不乏有航运公司为了满足过剩的市场需求或缓解货物积压的困境，而特意增派额外的装载船只。
这家来自丹麦的海事数据分析公司，以一种形象而生动的方式将这一现象命名为“船舶群聚”。他们解释道：“倘若一周内共有17次航行，而每周的服务频次仅为15次，那么这多出的2次航行，便是我们所说的‘船舶群聚’。”
在最近的一项深度分析中，海洋情报局更是通过计算连续10周内观察到的平均值，为我们直观地展示了船只聚集的趋势，如图1所示，那一条条起伏的曲线，仿佛在诉说着海面上船只往来的繁忙与喧嚣。
海洋情报公司的掌舵人艾伦·墨菲先生对此现象有着深刻的见解。他回忆道：“在疫情爆发前的那八年时光里，船只聚集的程度始终维持在相对较低的水平。然而，疫情的肆虐却如同一场突如其来的风暴，瞬间吹散了往日的宁静，船只的数量也随之急剧增加。”
墨菲先生继续补充道：“尽管随着时间的推移，到2023年底，这一状况几乎再次回归了正常化的轨道。但令人遗憾的是，2024年的红海危机却又一次将船舶群聚的现象推向了高潮，其严重程度几乎与疫情高峰期不相上下。”
他进一步指出，更高的船舶群聚无疑给港口和码头带来了更大的压力。墨菲先生解释说：“虽然从两周的总量来看，所提供的运力可能是相同的——比如一周内没有船只航行，而下一周则有两艘船只同时抵达；或者一周内有两艘船只出发，而第二周则空空如也——但这样的安排却使得一周内的工作量异常繁重，而第二周则几乎无所事事。”
作为海洋情报局的局长，墨菲先生对于这一现象可能带来的连锁反应有着更为清醒的认识。他补充道：“这样的不均衡分布，无疑增加了港口拥堵的风险，并进而对卡车、铁路和驳船等运输方式产生了类似的压力，形成了一种难以打破的恶性循环。”
最后，墨菲先生再次强调了船舶群聚现象的重要性：“因此，我们可以将船舶群聚视为港口压力和相应拥堵问题可能性的一个替代指标。而根据目前的数据来看，我们并没有发现任何迹象表明港口压力即将得到缓解。”
Vessel bunching — which occurs when the number of sailings in a given week comes in excess of the number of weekly services — has surged to a level almost nearly comparable to what was observed during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sea-Intelligence noted that from a network design perspective, one vessel would be scheduled to depart from an origin region each week for every deep-sea liner service. However, in the real world, a shipping line can have multiple vessels departing in the same week on the same service.
This can be caused by vessel delays, where a delayed vessel slides into the following week, vessel shortages, where shipping lines deploy two smaller vessels to replace a larger vessel, or because of extra-loader vessels to cater to excess demand/cargo backlog.
"We term this phenomenon as 'vessel bunching' ... so if there are 17 sailings in one week, and there are 15 weekly services, 'vessel bunching' equals 2," the Danish maritime data analytics firm said.
In a recent analysis, Sea-Intelligence noted that vessel bunching trends were identified by calculating an average observed over a rolling 10-week period, as illustrated in Figure 1 for Asia-North Europe.
"In the 8 years prior to the pandemic, there was a relatively low level of vessel bunching, whereas the pandemic caused an extreme increase," said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
"Towards the end of 2023, this had again almost normalised. However, the Red Sea crisis in 2024 has caused a new surge in vessel bunching, back to a level almost matching the pandemic peak," he added.
Murphy noted that higher vessel bunching creates a larger pressure on ports and terminals.
He said that while the offered capacity might be the same when seen over two weeks, i.e., no vessel sailing in one week followed by two vessels sailing in the following week, having two vessels depart in one week and zero vessels in the second week, "creates an extraordinarily high workload in one week and none in the second week."
"This clearly increases the risk of port congestion – and as a ripple effect, a similar crunch on the use of truck, rail, and barge capacity," the Sea-Intelligence chief added.
"Vessel bunching can, therefore, be seen as a proxy measure for the pressure on ports and the corresponding likelihood of congestion problems. As such, given the data, there is no indication that the pressure on ports is about to be alleviated," Murphy further said.
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