越南反倾销调查抑制中国原产热轧卷采购
Vietnam anti-dumping probe stifles China-origin HRC buying
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）报道，随着一起未决反倾销诉讼的进展，越南热轧卷市场的中国原产热轧卷交易正在减少。正如预期的那样，随着贸易案结果的临近，越南进口商不愿承担支付反倾销税的风险。
The Vietnamese hot rolled coil market is seeing Chinese-origin HRC trading dwindle as a pending anti-dumping suit progresses, Kallanish notes. As expected, Vietnamese importers are reluctant to take the risk of paying anti-dumping duties as the trade case’s results draw closer.
一位河内贸易商在周五表示：“预计12月或1月初会有一些初步关税或追溯税。除了那些愿意赌博的人，没有人会在今天预订。”
“There are expectations that there will be some preliminary duties or retroactive taxes in December or early January,” a Hanoi trader said on Friday. “No one will book today except those who are willing to gamble.”
市场传言称，原产于印度的进口热轧卷将面临22.27%的反倾销税，而来自中国的进口热轧卷将面临27.83%的反倾销税。一位地区贸易商说，这是一家生产商的“代言人”所说的。
Market rumours suggest Indian-origin HRC imports will face anti-dumping duties of 22.27% and those from China, 27.83%. This is being reported by “mouthpieces” of one of the producers, says a regional trader.
河内的另一位贸易商称，一些中国贸易商告诉买家，他们将承担任何额外关税的风险，他援引了与一家越南管道制造商的商谈，该制造商以约490-500美元/吨cfr的价格预订了12月发货的中国Q195。然而，即使是该管道制造商也不确定，如果实施关税，相关供应商是否会履行合同交货。
Some Chinese traders are telling buyers they will bear the risk of any additional tariffs, another Hanoi trader relates, citing a discussion with a Vietnamese pipemaker who booked Chinese Q195 for December shipment at around $490-500/tonne cfr. However, even the pipemaker is uncertain whether the supplier involved will honour contractual delivery if tariffs are implemented.
中国Q235 3-12毫米热轧卷12月发货报价约为510美元/吨cfr越南。一位越南贸易商指出，12月20日前发货的中国SAE 1006 2毫米厚度热轧卷的报价为515美元/吨cfr，但尚未被接受。SAE等级2-2.7毫米厚度热轧卷的估价为515-525美元/吨cfr越南，周环比下跌5美元。
Chinese Q235 3-12mm HRC for December shipment is offered at around $510/t cfr Vietnam. An offer for Chinese SAE 1006 2mm up thickness HRC for shipment by 20 December at $515/t cfr has not been taken up, a Vietnamese trader notes. SAE grade 2-2.7mm thickness HRC is assessed at $515-525/t cfr Vietnam, down $5 on-week.
Hoa Phat Group在其Dung Quat工厂现有560万吨/年热轧卷产能，正在实施产能翻番项目，预计两座新高炉中的第一座建成后，其产能将扩大。近300万吨/年的新产能计划于明年第一季度投产。第二座新高炉将于2025年底投入使用，但这将取决于钢铁市场的状况。
Hoa Phat Group is expected to increase the existing 5.6 million t/year HRC capacity at its Dung Quat complex when the first of two new blast furnaces is completed as part of its expansion to double capacity. Commissioning of the nearly 3m t/y new capacity is scheduled in the first quarter of next year. The second new blast furnace could start by end-2025 but this will depend on steel market conditions.
一位业内人士说，Hoa Phat扩大产能后，加上从日本和韩国的进口，以及台塑河静钢铁公司估计为500万吨/年的产能，可以满足越南约1,300-1,500万吨/年的消费需求。
Hoa Phat’s expanded capacity, together with imports from Japan and South Korea, and Formosa Ha Tinh’s capacity estimated at 5m t/y would meet Vietnam’s consumption of around 13-15m t/y, an industry observer says.
台塑河静钢铁公司预计将在11月11日开始的一周内公布其1月份发货的热轧卷价格。市场人士称，该钢厂可能会维持价格不变。该生产商12月份的非精整SAE 1006热轧卷价格约为540美元/吨cif胡志明市。
Meanwhile, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel is expected to announce the price of its January-shipment HRC allocations during the week beginning 11 November. Market sources hear that the mill may keep prices unchanged. The producer’s non-skin passed SAE 1006 HRC for December was pegged at around $540/t cif Ho Chi Minh City.
11月1日，Hoa Phat对1月/2月发货的非精整SAE1006或SS400级热轧卷报价约为534美元/吨cfr越南南部（不含增值税）。
On 1 November, Hoa Phat offered its non-skin passed SAE1006 or SS400 grade HRC for January/February shipment at the equivalent of around $534/t cfr southern Vietnam, excluding VAT.
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