周二的美国大选将消除钢铁行业的一些不透明因素
Tuesday's US elections to remove some steel-outlook opaqueness
由于明年联邦政策转变的不确定性，美国钢铁供应链在2024年的大部分时间里都不愿进行补货和长期投资，而周二大选日的到来终于将揭开这层帷幕。
After the US steel supply chain spent most of 2024 reluctant to commit to restocking and long-term investments due to uncertainty over federal policy shifts next year, Election Day finally arrives on Tuesday to lift the cloak.
选民将选择副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯或前总统唐纳德·特朗普领导行政部门2025-2029年的工作。加上周二同时进行的国会选举，国家治理的构成应该会在几天内明朗化。
Voters will choose either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump to lead the executive branch for 2025-2029. Together with Tuesday's simultaneous congressional elections, the makeup of national governance should become clear within a few days.
最终的力量平衡将揭示公共和私营领域对钢铁的可能需求，也将揭示哪些钢铁产品将成为赢家，哪些将成为输家。如果获胜的特朗普将联邦资金从清洁能源和其他基础设施转向支持石油和天然气生产，那么对中厚板、涂层钢和其他板材以及结构性产品的需求可能会减少，而油井管和管线管的消费可能会增加（见Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）7月4日报道）。
The ultimate balance of power finally will shed light on the probable demand for steel in the public and private sectors. It could point to which steel items will be winners and losers. If a victorious Trump diverts federal funding from clean energy and other infrastructure in favour of support for oil and gas production, there may be less demand for plate, coated and other flat steel and structural goods and more consumption of OCTG and line pipe (see Kallanish 4 July).
许多与钢铁相关的组织和公司都拒绝正式表态。一些钢铁市场人士预测，特朗普将在促进制造业发展、刺激国内石油生产以及在钢厂执行空气污染法方面采取不那么激进的立场（见Kallanish 8月30日报道）。他们认为，特朗普首届政府让他们的境况比以前更好。
Many steel-related organisations and companies have declined to make formal endorsements. Some steel market participants predict that Trump would be more favourable in promoting manufacturing, stimulating domestic petroleum production and taking a less-aggressive stance on enforcing air-pollution laws at mill sites (see Kallanish 30 August). They argue that the first Trump administration left them better off than before.
特朗普上个月在宾夕法尼亚州的一次集会上宣称：“我们拯救了这个国家的钢铁工业，现在我们要让它再次真正强大起来。”
“We saved the steel industry in this country, and now we’re going to make it really powerful again,” Trump proclaimed during a rally in Pennsylvania last month.
哈里斯在支持联邦对公共基础设施、半导体制造、数据中心和电网的持续投资方面有一定功劳。美国钢铁工人联合会和美国汽车工人联合会工会已经支持哈里斯。
Harris is credited with supporting on-going federal investments in public infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, data centres and the electric grid. The United Steelworkers and United Auto Workers labour unions have endorsed Harris.
美国钢铁公司加里工厂USW 1014分会成员、钢铁工人Bob Tribble说：“单是基础设施法案就给我们工厂带来了巨大的变化。我们生产结构钢，这让我们业务繁忙。这意味着我们在招工，而不是缩减开支，也意味着稳定的就业。”
“The infrastructure bill alone has made a huge difference in our plant,” says steelworker Bob Tribble, a member of USW Local 1014 at US Steel’s Gary Works. "We make structural steel, and that has kept us busy. It has meant that we are hiring, not pulling back, and it has meant steady employment.”
绝大多数美国经济学家认为，哈里斯的建议对通胀的影响远小于特朗普的建议。《华尔街日报》10月份的一项调查发现，68%的经济学家认为特朗普新政府会比哈里斯总统任期造成更高的通胀，而12%的经济学家预测哈里斯会更糟。高通胀已经损害美国非住宅建筑业对钢材的需求，而非住宅建筑业对降低利率的需求尤为强烈。
Harris’ proposals are far less inflationary than Trump’s, according to a large majority of US economists. An October survey by the Wall Street Journal found that 68% of economists think a new Trump administration would cause higher inflation than a Harris presidency, versus 12% who predict that Harris would be worse. High inflation already has hurt demand for steel in the US nonresidential construction industry, which has been particularly vocal about the need for lower interest rates.
特朗普承诺削减企业税、征收全面关税并驱逐数百万外国出生的工人，这将加剧滞胀的风险。 美国建筑协会对可用工人的持续短缺表示遗憾（见Kallanish 10月30日报道），并呼吁增加移民数量，以加快项目进度（见Kallanish 2022年11月24日报道）。
Trump’s promises to cut corporate taxes, impose across-the-board tariffs and deport of millions of foreign-born workers heightens the risk of stagflation. US construction associations lament the persistent shortage of available workers (see Kallanish 30 October) and have called for more immigration as one solution (see Kallanish 24 November 2022) to accelerate projects.
特朗普提议将企业税从其第一任期内设定的21%的现行税率降至15%。哈里斯则倾向于将税率提高到28%。
Trump proposes cutting corporate taxes to 15%, from the current 21% level set during his first term. Harris prefers an increase to 28%.
特朗普政府和拜登-哈里斯政府都曾针对中国钢铁加征关税，现任白宫大多保留了特朗普的232条款关税。特朗普倾向于与其他国家进行双边谈判，而哈里斯则可能在现有的国际法律公约范围内行事（见Kallanish 11月1日报道）。特朗普最近威胁要惩罚那些根据在他任期内签订的《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》条款将制造业转移到墨西哥的公司（见Kallanish 10月17日报道）。
Both the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations have targeted Chinese steel by adding tariffs, and the current White House has kept Trump’s Section 232 orders mostly in place. Trump prefers to negotiate bilaterally with other countries, whilst Harris is likely to operate within existing international legal conventions (see Kallanish 1 November). Trump recently threatened to punish companies who move manufacturing to Mexico under the terms of his own United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (see Kallanish 17 October).
参议院钢铁行业议员小组的重要成员、俄亥俄州民主党人、前议员小组主席Sherrod Brown被认为在与克利夫兰商人Bernie Moreno的激烈连任竞选中处于弱势。
An important member of the Senate Steel Caucus, Ohio Democrat and former caucus chairman Sherrod Brown, is considered vulnerable in a tight re-election race against Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno.
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